Oregon State at Air Force Point Spread Pick: Finding Value in Week 12

Oregon State Beavers (4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS) vs. Air Force Falcons (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 12
Date/Time: Saturday, November 16, 2024 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Falcon Stadium, USAFA Academy, Colorado
TV: CBS Sports Network

The Oregon State Beavers come to Colorado for a Saturday afternoon matchup with the Air Force Falcons. Neither team has seen the season go according to plan, with the Falcons at 2-7 with just one win in the Mountain West, with the Beavers, a team without a real conference more or less serving as an adjunct member of the Mountain West, having dropped four straight games, including a 24-13 affair to San Jose State last week at home. Air Force, meanwhile, actually got a rare glimpse of success on Saturday, ending a 7-game losing streak with a win over Fresno State at home, 36-28. Back at home again this week, can they keep it rolling, or will Oregon State bring an end to their recent woes? Let’s break it down!

Making Sense of it All

It’s been a rough road for both programs this season and that also goes for anyone backing these teams, with a combined 4-14 record against the spread. With the Beavers currently on a 4-game slide and Air Force having just put an end to their ugly 7-game skid, both teams have hit a wall to varying degrees this season. Air Force being dug in at home and having shown some pluck in climbing off the mat to score the win over Fresno last week puts them in maybe a more-appealing spot, but that’s still a very brief window of good that falls far short in undoing all the bad that led up to that point. And while a few of those Beavers losses a few weeks back weren’t so bad, perhaps, as they were at least in close games, it’s gotten ugly these last two weeks, getting smoked 44-7 at Cal before losing by 11 at home as favorites to San Jose St. Their offense has really hit a wall and it’s not easy to picture a positive and energetic team showing up on Saturday.

On the one hand, Air Force being at home and having some recent success in their rearview makes you think they might have the more-positive outlook moving forward. You could also say that even though Oregon State has been awful, they were playing pretty good teams. They’re not this week. Sure, it’s a tricky road game against a team with whom they have no connection or real familiarity, but it’s still a far cry from who they’ve been facing in terms of quality. And maybe with some shifts in personnel, they can start to see better results in what should be an easier spot.

Answers for Oregon State?

During the Cal loss, we saw the Beavers turn back to Ben Gulbranson at quarterback. He was almost at 300 yards against San Jose State last week, though it didn’t amount to much from a scoring standpoint. We’ll see if they stick with him for this week. They have a nice workhorse in RB Anthony Hankerson, who has 14 touchdowns. Trent Walker is their lead receiver and a talented player. This hasn’t been a unit producing in recent weeks, but they have the capability at the very least. Whatever they’ve been coming up with—it’s still not enough to counteract what has been happening on the other side of the ball.

In giving up almost 400 yards in passing last week to San Jose State quarterback Walker Eget, the Beavers actually had their best game on defense in weeks, allowing only 24 total points. In the four games preceding that, they gave up a combined 150 points. This is a big part of why they are where they are, having gone from a promising 4-1 start where it seemed things were looking up with their only loss to the top-ranked team in the nation to a team now having to scratch and claw for a shot at bowl-eligibility. And sure, this seems to be a nice spot against a team that has been off the tracks for most of the season, but is this a defense you feel good about traveling with laying points?

What Can Air Force Do About It?

With seven guys in triple-digits in rushing yards, Air Force wields a familiar multi-pronged running attack that has mostly gotten bad results this season, as their record against the spread will attest. Against a defense that isn’t really operating functionally, this offense can do damage, but that has only surfaced a few times this season. We’ve also seen their defense perform a little better in the second-half of the season from a stoutness perspective, preventing some of the big point-totals their opponents were putting up earlier in the year. Outside of that, there really isn’t much.

As can be Air Force’s wont, the aerial attack is negligible this season, sometimes really more of an afterthought. And while their “D” has been able to mostly prevent things from devolving into an embarrassment, they can also be helpless in the event that Gulbranson, assuming he’s in, and his weapons start gaining some foothold. While these aren’t always the best metrics for defensive success. The Falcons’ “D” having just two picks and eight sacks during the season speaks to how unimpactful they can be.

Take the Points

It’s easy for the first inclination to be to take Oregon State, a team that has gotten to higher heights this season. It’s just that the enthusiasm for that plummets when reflecting on their recent form and how they’re giving up 4 points in a game this week where I don’t suspect the scores to be overly plentiful. It’s not an easy pick to make, but I suspect Air Force can keep within striking distance of an Oregon State team that shows up a little lackluster on Saturday. I’ll take Air Force.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Air Force Falcons plus 4 points.

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