Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies – Huge Pac-12 Pick

Oregon Ducks (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) vs. Washington Huskies (5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS)

College Football Week 7

Date and Time: Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 3:30PM EDT

Where: Husky Stadium, Seattle, Washington

TV: ABC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: ORE +3/WASH -3 (Bovada – Awesome loyalty program! 50% CC Bonus!)

Over/Under Total: 67.5

The Oregon Ducks come to Seattle on Saturday to take on the Washington Huskies in a huge Pac-12 battle. Oregon is coming off their second straight 42-6 win over a conference foe, this time Stanford. Washington, meanwhile, beat Arizona, 31-24, in their last game to also go to 5-0. Both teams got last week off, leading up to this Border War matchup. We’ve seen Washington fare better in this annual matchup, winning last season, 37-34, their third win in the last six years, following a winless streak of a dozen years. Who can get the upper hand in this game of the week from Husky Stadium?

Huge Stakes

We can’t pretend that USC doesn’t figure into this, but with their defensive liabilities, it’s hard to imagine them surviving a whole season without something bad happening. That leaves Oregon and Washington in a game where the impact might stretch beyond mere conference supremacy. After three wins to open the season, Oregon has made easy work of their first two conference foes, allowing one garbage-time TD in eight quarters. It should get tougher here. Washington also served notice in their first three games of the year before exploding into conference play with 90 points scored in two games.

Things That Stand Out First

While Washington has a number of advantages, namely with a passing offense led by Michael Penix, Jr., who already has 2000 yards, their defense hasn’t played as well as Oregon’s. You don’t want to place too much stock in defensive performances in games they’re winning handily. And Arizona is improved, though a 31-24 win over them isn’t enthralling, nor was the Huskies giving up 32 to Cal the week prior. With their offense, they don’t need their “D” to be great. But some of these early performances don’t really bode well when taking on the more high-octane conference offenses they will face, like the incoming Ducks this week.

Then again, maybe some early results painted the Oregon “D” in too flattering of a light. Stanford and a not-ready-for-primetime Colorado offense aren’t the greatest tests. And they needed a big 4th quarter to beat Texas Tech earlier this season, giving up 30 points to the only real offense they’ve seen all season. And even if they are as good as they’ve looked opening up conference play, it provides no assurance that this will continue in the face of the Huskies home offense in a giant program-defining type of game.

Keys to the Game

Washington is not the defense we saw a few seasons ago when the Huskies were producing a bunch of great DBs. Oregon is going to put up points. The anomaly of the two straight 42-6 scores attests to a certain bankability that they have. With Bo Nix putting up big numbers at QB, the running of Jordan James and Bucky Irving, and difference-making receivers like Troy Franklin and others, there’s an automaticity to this offense. If we see the same Washington “D” we’ve seen in their first two conference games, Oregon could put up a pretty big number, but I think they’re going to do that regardless.

But there is no point in even trying to question the Washington offense and how they revived their program with this air attack under Penix. Jr. Between receivers Rome Udunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan (questionable), along with TE Jack Westover, they have 15 touchdowns. Penix, Jr. put up over 400 yards in this matchup last season, with some of these very receivers having big games. And that’s when the Ducks had CB Christian Gonzalez. For their part, though, Franklin and Irving had big games for the Ducks in a three-point loss.

At any rate, the level of improvement of the Oregon defense as a whole, but specifically their secondary, will be tested in a major way. This might come down to a bend-but-don’t-break philosophy this week or a more or less “roll with the punches” approach. And Oregon can also rest assured knowing that the aerial disparity between the two teams isn’t as vast as some portray, with Oregon’s Nix having just one fewer TD and one less pick than Penix, Jr. And their rushing-attack gives their offense a dimension that Washington doesn’t quite have.

Depends on What You Like

Maybe there’s something you like about Kalen DeBoer or Dan Lanning’s coaching. Maybe you prefer aerial excellence over all-around offensive power. There’s so much give-and-take in the analysis of this matchup that it just might come down to what you prefer. Or what you think is real—like Oregon showing a better defense, Washington’s “D” appearing vulnerable, or things you think might/might not surface from either team in this heightened context. With a giant game like this coming relatively early, as it is only each team’s third Pac-12 matchup, we might think we have a good lay of the land without really knowing for sure.

Take the Road Dog

Oregon is not above reproach, nor above getting torched by Penix, Jr. and this Washington offense on the road. I think that the Ducks’ better-rounded offense, the ax they have to grind, and a “D” that has looked good, albeit in a reduced context, gives them a good chance to come into Washington and compete for the win. I think having a few more routes to overall success in a big spot like this will pay off for the Ducks. I’m taking Oregon in this one.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Oregon Ducks plus 3 points.