Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Point Spread Play

Oregon Ducks (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

College Football Week 2

Date and Time: Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 7PM EDT

Where: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, Texas

TV: Fox

Point Spread: ORE -7/TTU +7 (Bovada – A must have if you live bet games! The BEST!)

Over/Under Total: 67

The Oregon Ducks come to Lubbock on Saturday to battle the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a big Pac-12 vs. Big 12 showdown on the week two schedule. The Ducks opened fast in week one, pounding outmanned Portland State, 81-7. They were able to get guys like QB Bo Nix, RB Mar’Keise Irving, and WR Troy Franklin warmed up with what was really a glorified scrimmage. Texas Tech, conversely, might be more battle-tested after a week one struggle, but it was a rough season debut taking a 17-0 lead against Wyoming, blowing it, and losing in OT on a failed two-point conversion in a 35-33 heartbreaker. Still, they’re a dangerous team coming off a pretty good season and making their home-opener. We can see those who set odds think pretty highly of them, making them just a TD underdog as of press time to the high-powered Ducks.

Can Texas Tech Push Oregon?

With how vast college football is, it’s still a small world, as Texas Tech quarterback Tyler Shough will see his old team coming into town. Shough started for the Ducks in the abbreviated Covid season of 2020, transferring to Texas Tech and now earning starting duties. Game one was a success, albeit in a loss, with Shough throwing for 338 yards and three TDs. He connected well with Jerand Bradley and Myles Price, and suffice to say, the Ducks’ defense will be pressed to an extent that far surpasses last week. While Oregon can just wallop teams and drown everything out with their high-powered offense, their “D” does lag behind their offense, and for all their success, we’ve seen it isn’t hard for teams to put up points against them. I’d look for the Red Raiders to have a decent amount of aerial success this week.

Whether this one ends up being a competitive affair or not might hinge on the Texas Tech defense. It doesn’t paint them in a great light to have given up a big lead to the Cowboys last week, as Wyoming kept poking and prodding their way to victory. On the surface, it doesn’t set up well when taking on this Ducks’ offense with all their talent and options. At the same time, Wyoming’s offensive approach isn’t analogous to a lot of teams, so an analysis stemming from that could be flawed. This Texas Tech “D” lost a lot of pieces, like Tyree Wilson going in the first round to the Raiders. But it also attests to the talent this defense has begun to assemble. The front has some pieces to establish, but Oregon will be facing what is, in fact a deep and talented secondary that is strong at corner and safety with guys like Rayshad Williams, Malik Dunlap, Tyler Owens, CJ Baskerville, and Dadrion Taylor-Demberson.

What Oregon Needs to Do

Head coach Dan Lanning and his staff know what they’re up against with this Red Raiders defense. If throwing the ball is something that is met with resistance, that is no problem for an Oregon team that can run the heck out of the ball. The 348 yards last week against the opponent they had with the type of lead they built provides a faulty gauge, perhaps, but this is a team whose offense is built on balance. With Irving leading the way with his game-breaking runs, they have a wealth of options to keep throwing fresh-legged backs down the throat of a Texas Tech defense that still has a lot of questions to answer along the line and in the middle. And even if you sign off on the idea that the Red Raiders’ secondary is pretty good, that still doesn’t insulate them from the damage Bo Nix can wield with his accurate arm with his large cast of aerial weaponry, including pass-catchers like Franklin, who look ready to take that next step.

I’d be a little concerned about Shough and his weapons against this Oregon defense, a group that hasn’t quite been able to match talent with results. Last season saw some meltdowns and spots where they weren’t that close to where they should be. They lost a few key pieces to the NFL but get some guys back from injury, along with some difference-making transfers already being thrown into rotation. Based on what we saw against Wyoming, the Red Raiders might not be able to run the ball with a lot of success against an Oregon front that has some real talent, with Brandon Dorius and Jordan Burch on either side with some meat in the middle. Talent is abundant in the secondary, but with key slots occupied by transfers, they might take some time to jell. Going against a potent Texas Tech air attack with Shough having a nice handful of viable and speedy targets who can do serious damage should provide some early answers for this Oregon pass defense.

Lay the Number on the Road Favorite

After getting clonked on the head enough times, you learn to develop a sense of when you’re walking into a trap. We have a ranked Oregon team that was a few twists and turns away from having a really big year last season. A lot of their offense is back, and they put up an ungodly 81 in week one. On the other sideline is a Texas Tech team that couldn’t even repel a Mountain West opponent in their first game, losing a draining second-overtime battle. Then you see what seems like a favorable Oregon quote of just -7. It seems like a set-up where we’re going to see an energetic Texas Tech squad in their home opener taking it to a new-look Oregon “D” and maybe threatening to win the game. I see both sides, but in the end, I’m going to trust my read that Oregon is on a different level that surpasses a lone TD. I believe they will overcome the Red Raiders’ energy and motivation, in addition to what is a difficult spot, with clear advantages in defensive talent and overall offensive firepower. I’ll take the Ducks.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Oregon Ducks minus 7 points.