Note: If you’re looking
for the 2013 Week 11 Thursday night matchup for these two teams, please
go here: Oregon
Ducks vs. Stanford Cardinal Pick.
No. 2 Oregon Ducks (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS) vs. No. 5 Stanford Cardinal (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS)
College Football Week 11
Date and Time: Thursday November 7th, 2013. 9:00PM Eastern
Where: Stanford Stadium Stanford, C.A.
TV: ESPN
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: OR -10/STAN +10
Over/Under Total: OFF (at time of print)
The collision course has been set and this Thursday will mark the meeting
of two of college football’s elite when the no. 2 Oregon Ducks
try to remain undefeated on the road against the no. 5 Stanford
Cardinal. Despite suffering an upset loss to Utah a few weeks ago,
the Cardinal can still take the lead in the PAC-12 Championship race and
remain in the National Championship hunt with a win over the Ducks. The
Cardinal derailed Oregon’s National Championship dreams last year with a
17-14 overtime victory and they will have the opportunity to spoil those
same hopes again this year.
Stanford will enter Thursday night as a 10 point underdog to the Ducks. However, the Cardinal has also won 13 straight and 24 of their last 25 games at home. Their only loss during that span was a 53-30 defeat at the hands of Oregon back in 2011. For Stanford to avoid another home loss, they will have to get a tremendous effort from the defense just as they did in last year’s big win over the Ducks. So far this season, Stanford’s defense has given up just 19 points per game (19th in FBS). While the Cardinal has posted impressive defensive numbers, Oregon will present an entirely different type of challenge this Thursday night.
Oregon houses the most dynamic offense in college football and they have posted absurd numbers this season averaging 55.6 points and 632 yards per game. QB Marcus Mariota is especially having a flawless season. Mariota has completed 64% passing for 2,281 yards with 20 touchdowns and shockingly 0 interceptions. The turnovers or lack thereof have been essential to Oregon’s success this season. The Ducks not only have one of the top offenses in the country but they do not give up turnovers which equals an unbeatable formula if it continues.
Over the past few seasons and again this year, the Ducks have been most dangerous on the ground. Oregon currently owns the 2nd best rushing offense in the country averaging 331 yards per game. Both tailbacks Byron Marshall and De’Anthony Thomas are homerun threats each time they touch the ball. Thomas, who is healthy for the first time in several weeks, has averaged a touchdown for every 7 touches of the football. Marshall and Mariota have combined for 21 rushing touchdowns along with an incredible 7.5 yards per carry. Obviously that proves just how explosive the Ducks can be when running the football. Stanford’s defense is very physical and strong upfront meaning they should be able to limit Oregon’s big plays running the football. However, Mariota could be the difference if he is able to stay solid in the passing game and keep the interception less streak alive.
So far the Ducks have been extremely impressive against the books going 7-1 ATS which can be accredited to their vastly improved defense. Oregon held UCLA’s potent offense to just 14 points in their last outing two weeks ago. The Ducks defense has given up just 16 points per game which ranks 7th best in college football. Stanford has not exactly been overly impressive on the offensive side of the football this season so it will be interesting to see if they can overcome this improved Ducks defense. QB Kevin Hogan has been decent completing 61% passing for 13 scores and 5 picks. However, the offense typically relies on a grinding running game behind tailback Tyler Gaffney and a talented offensive line. I believe this will be the critical match-up that will determine this game. While all eyes will be on the Oregon offense vs. Stanford defense battle, the tale of the tape will likely be decided on Stanford’s ability to run the football.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I expect the Ducks to be flying low Thursday night and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see this game come down to whoever has the ball last. I really like Stanford plus the 10 here and am also recommending that you take 20% of your bet and place it on the Stanford moneyline as it could happen!
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