Oregon Ducks vs. Stanford Cardinal Pick ATS

Oregon Ducks (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) vs. Stanford Cardinal (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)

College Football Week 5

Date and Time: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 6:30PM EDT

Where: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, California

TV: Pac-12 Network

Point Spread: ORE -27/STAN +27 (BetUS – Deposit $100 and get $100 free w/code PREDICTEM)

Money Line: ORE -4000, STAN +1200

Over/Under Total: 61

The Oregon Ducks take on the Stanford Cardinal in a Pac-12 showdown on Saturday night. Stanford gets this one at home in a game where they will take all the help they can get. This will be their third straight home game, coming up empty thus far, including a painfully close 21-20 loss to Arizona last week. It doesn’t get easier against conference power Oregon, fresh off their high-profile 42-6 beating of Colorado on Saturday, where they served notice, especially to outmanned conference fodder, that they mean business. Who can get us the cover at Stanford Stadium on Saturday?

Usually Harder Than It Looks

There are a number of reasons why we shouldn’t get into all the past tendencies when talking about teams where rosters and even coaches are overturned so often. But there can be embedded institutional patterns, and one that really stands out is how tough Stanford plays Oregon. With four wins in their last seven matchups, we’ve seen disregarded Cardinal squads jump up and bite even high-ranked Oregon teams for massive upset wins. With this at home, it only accentuates what really seems like a case of a team rising to the occasion against a heavily favored opponent. Granted, some of those Stanford teams were better than the three and four-win Cardinal teams we’ve seen the last four seasons. And sure, there have been times when the superior Ducks have brushed aside the Cardinal with relative ease. But in a conference where things seldom make sense in a pairing that has a particular quirk to it such as this, it’s worth contemplating.

Stanford: Facing Some Harsh Realities

The possibility that there are still some new depths to explore for Stanford isn’t out of the question. What we saw last week in giving a good sweat to a bottom-half conference team might be their limit. The previous week, also at home, they lost to Sacramento State, 30-23. You’d tend to give them a pass for taking it on the chin from USC, 56-10, and a road win over Hawaii in week one perhaps counts for something, but it’s at this level where their viability falls into serious question.

With a Stanford secondary that has already been pelted with production, from USC all the way down to CSU Sacramento, you have to wonder how they hold up against Bo Nix and the Oregon pass-attack. On Saturday, we continued to see Troy Franklin flower as the top aerial option for the Ducks, already with 418 yards and five TDs on the season. With a handful of other good receivers along with a back in Bucky Irving who is also handy as a pass-catcher, there is going to be a talent-differential aerially that might be hard for Stanford to overcome. Losing RB Noah Whittington for the time being, however, isn’t helpful for the Ducks.

Stanford finds itself without a real standout at quarterback, with both Ashton Daniels and Justin Lamson failing to really distinguish themselves as of yet. They can deliver a useful run game when not getting blown out, as Casey Filkins and EJ Smith have been impressive in spots. It’s not a good sign when the tight end is your leading receiver, but Benjamin Yurosek is one of the best in the conference. But against a Colorado offense with talent, we saw what the Ducks can do last week, providing stout resistance in the secondary and up-front, as well. Seven sacks last week foretells what might be a gloomy night for this Stanford offensive line.

Any Silver Lining for the Cardinal?

The jumbo spread is alone tantalizing for a conference game where the dog is at home as is 4-3 in their last seven against the favorite. There is merit in that just out of principle. And despite that recent record, most of the guys on this Oregon team don’t have fresh memories of being beaten by the Cardinal and have to know this is a part of the season where they’re just gearing up for a defining stretch of games beginning the week after this where the Ducks face a slew of ranked teams. We see Oregon coming on very strong in the beginning of games and letting up and pulling guys in the second half. Maybe they do that again here and save bodies for the demanding schedule that looms, setting up for a situation where the Cardinal might not be out of it if they surge a little bit in the second half against an Oregon defense that no longer is giving its full and undivided attention.

At the same time, it’s possible that Stanford’s 56-10 walloping at the hands of USC is a more accurate representation of where they stand at this level. In that one, the Cardinal didn’t get their first TD until late, again when the Trojans’ defense was more relaxed with the big lead. The woeful condition of their secondary shined through in a way that makes you think Bo Nix might be poised for a big day.

Take the Points

It’s not a bet where anyone can lie and say they’re super-confident. Without any point of reference, it looks like two teams of completely different calibers. Part of me wants to defer to how well the Cardinal typically fare in this spot, how it’s at home, how this is somewhat of a sandwich-game letdown spot for the Ducks, and an inkling that Stanford can maybe cover some ground late against an Oregon team that will already be looking ahead a bit. I’ll take a whirl on Stanford this week.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Stanford Cardinal plus 27 points.