Ole Miss vs. Florida: Point Spread Pick for SEC Showdown

No. 9 Ole Miss vs Florida Projected Winner

Mississippi -10?
Yes, please.

The knock against Mississippi coach Lincoln Riley is that he never wins the big one.
That is until the Georgia Bulldogs came to town.
In their last game, the Rebels beat the Bulldogs, the number three team in the country, and Riley got the monkey off his back.
This would normally make their next game a possible setup for a “Go Against” spot, expecting Mississippi to come in flat off such a huge win. Except for one thing – the Rebels had a bye week after the Georgia win.
This does two things:

1 – It gives Riley time to get his boys to come down off the high of their big win against Georgia and get focused on their next game.

2 – It gives him extra time to put in a game plan for the next opponent.
And Riley is very efficient with extra prep time.

Last year in his two games that had extended prep time he was 2-0, beating Auburn and Penn State.

The last three years with extra prep time, he’s 4-2 against teams that aren’t named Alabama.
And this week, he’s up against a team that is not Alabama.

The Florida Gators are a major disappointment this year with a record of 5-5, making them the perfect patsy for the Rebels to beat up on as they look to improve their placing in the new extended playoff system.

The Gators come into this game off a bit of a high of their own, having defeated #22 LSU last week.
It was their fifth game against a top 25 ranked contender. Here are the scores from the other four games:

#19 Miami, 41-17 Loss
#8 Tennessee, 23-17 Loss
#2 Georgia, 34-20 Loss
#5 Texas, 49-17 Loss

Average margin of defeat: 19 points.

And now they get to face #9 Ole Miss.
The Rebel’s average margin of victory: 35 points.

Even though they pulled out a victory against LSU, the Gator’s defense gave up 262 yards in the air. The Rebels and QB Dart are a passing machine, throwing for an average of 365 yards per game, complimented by 175 rushing yards per game.

If we know anything about Lincoln Riley, it’s that he’ll run up the score when given a chance. And with playoff placement on the line, this is a game that calls for taking no prisoners.

The spread on this game is Miss-10.
Every one of Mississippi’s eight wins was by more than double digits.
Four of Florida’s five losses have come by more than double digits.

Any concerns that this is a road game for Ole Miss?
They scored 40 at Wake Forest, 27 at South Carolina, 26 at LSU, and in their last game – 63 at Arkansas.
So, no. No concern.
The game does not qualify for any of the handicapping systems I use. The pick is just a “gut feel” play, and my gut feels that Mississippi will have this small number covered by halftime.

The new playoff system doesn’t factor in points scored but that’s not going to matter to Lincoln Riley and this game is the perfect spot for one of his typical blowouts of a weak opponent.

I wrote this post on Friday, 11/15, and when the line came out Sunday, 11/17, I jumped on the opening -9′ knowing it was going to go up. Today it’s at -10 across the board so that’s what I’ll use here.

With two losses on the season and only lowly 2-8 Mississippi State left as the final game on their schedule, this week’s game against Florida is the last semi-tough game of the season. And I expect the Rebels are well-rested and ready to kick ass.

Mississippi -10?
Yes please!

Recap: 1-1
Record: 16-7
Review:

Baylor/W. Virg Ov 59 was a winner, but no fun. They had 63 at HALFTIME. Didn’t get very much bang for my viewing pleasure buck out of that one.

Boise St/San Jose St Un 62 was a much more exciting game to watch, but the end result sucked.
With just over two minutes left in the game, I was right where I needed to be. As long as they didn’t score two TDS and two extra points, I was going to get 2-0 on the day.
Boise State scores a TD. Now I have to sweat out the final minute, knowing that up by two scores, they’re going to play prevent defense. I smelled a back door one-point loss coming.
The Mountaineers are slowly working their way down the field when, with 1:42 showing on the clock, the QB throws an interception.
All Boise has to do is fall down, go into to victory formation, and take a knee, twice. But instead, what Boise did was run it back 70 yards for a Pick 6.
I lose by a point.
Ugh!

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