Ole Miss vs. Auburn Pick ATS 11/2/19

Ole Miss Rebels (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. No. 11 Auburn Tigers (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday November 2nd, 2019. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium Auburn, A.L
TV: ESPN
by Jay Horne, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread:MISS +20/AUB -20 (WagerWeb)
Over/Under Total: 52.5

The Auburn Tigers dropped their 2nd game of the season last week against newly top-ranked LSU ending any hopes of an SEC Championship bid. However, the Tigers did take LSU down to the wire and proving they are a legitimate SEC heavyweight. While the SEC Championship may not go through the plains in 2019, Auburn still has a chance to make a lot of noise with meetings against Georgia and Alabama looming on the horizon. This week the 11th ranked Tigers return home to Jordan-Hare Stadium as 20 point favorites against the Ole Miss Rebels.

Despite finding ways to be competitive, the Rebels have dropped 4 of their last six games. In the previous two weeks, the Rebels have jumped out to early leads over Missouri and Texas A&M only to squander the advantage in the 2nd half. To be fair, the Rebels offense remains a work in progress, which seems to be the most significant thing holding the team back. Quarterback Matt Corral has not done anything great, but he remains the best passer on the team, completing just less than 60% on the season. Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is a dangerous rushing threat ranking 2nd on the team with 508 yards on the great, but he also makes the offense rather one-dimensional. As a result, the Rebels have been competitive but mostly inconsistent.

Ole Miss injuries update for Auburn

The Rebels have battled injuries all season, and things were looking pretty grim following last week’s 24-17 loss to the Aggies. Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, leading rusher Scottie Phillips, leading receiver Elijah Moore, along with a few other key contributors are listed on the injury report with mild injuries. Though the injuries did not appear to be significant, any missed time by those contributors at the skill positions could have a big impact in a game against Auburn, where they will need all of their offensive weapons. The good news is that Plumlee, Phillips, and Moore have all been upgraded to a ‘probable’ status as of Tuesday and are expected to play.

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Auburn returns home for 4 game stretch

After three straight road games that yielded two losses, Auburn will return to the plains for a four-game home stretch to close out the regular season. This is rather important because the Tigers have played their best football inside the friendly confines of Jordan-Hare Stadium. Freshman quarterback Bo Nix has been a much different quarterback at home compared to on the road. In the four away games in the SEC, Nix has completed 49% passing while averaging just 144 yards per game with six touchdowns and four picks. At home, Nix is completing 64% passing averaging 234 yards per game with four touchdowns and 0 picks.

Now keep in mind, Auburn is not exactly a passing team. Gus Malzahn’s offense surrounds the ground game with running backs JaTarvious Whitlow and Kam Martin, who have combined for 913 yards with nine touchdowns through the first seven games. However, I need to point out that Nix has been a much better quarterback at home, and that has directly resulted in this Auburn offense being more dynamic at Jordan-Hare Stadium. If they can get better consistency from their young quarterback, this is one of the toughest teams in the entire country on any given weekend.

Ole Miss vs. Auburn Betting Trends

Auburn has been one of the most profitable betting teams in college football in 2019 with a 7-1 mark ATS. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and are 7-1-2 ATS in their previous ten meetings against Ole Miss. Ole Miss is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall. However, the Rebels have found a way to cover the mark in 4 of their past five against SEC opponents. The ‘over’ has also cashed in 7 of the previous ten meetings between the Rebels and Tigers.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I would not consider this a big play by any stretch of the imagination. However, I do believe Auburn plays their best football at home, and the defense is extremely good. So I am laying the points with Auburn -20