Ole Miss vs. Arkansas: Week 10 CFB Picks and Predictions

No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 10

Date/Time: Saturday, November 2nd, 2024, 12:00PM (EST)

Where: Razorback Stadium Fayetteville, AR.

TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: MISS -6.5/ARK +6.5

Moneyline: Ole Miss -270/Hogs +220

Total: 55.5

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At one point earlier this season, the Ole Miss Rebels appeared to be one of the best teams in college football and were ranked as high as number 6 in the polls. Since the fast start, the Rebels have compiled a 2-2 SU record in conference play with losses to Kentucky and LSU. Last week, the Rebels put together another underwhelming performance in a 26-14 victory over Oklahoma in a game that was much closer than anyone expected. As things currently stand, the Rebels are still among the college football playoff hopefuls, but they are also going to need to play better than we have seen in recent weeks. This Saturday, the no. 19 Rebels will face the Arkansas Razorbacks as 6.5 point favorites in Fayetteville.

The Razorbacks are on the heels of one of their most impressive wins of the season, which resulted in a 58-25 blowout over Mississippi State. Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green led the onslaught by throwing five touchdown passes and running for another as the Razorbacks compiled 673 yards of total offense in the impressive victory. The victory moved Arkansas to 3-2 SU in SEC play and 5-3 SU overall. The Razorbacks were able to upset no. 4 Tennessee last month and will have another opportunity to deliver an upset over a ranked opponent when they host the Rebels inside Razorback Stadium as slight underdogs this Saturday!

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Analysis

For whatever reason, the Ole Miss offense has not produced the big plays in recent weeks that we have expected from Head Coach Lane Kiffin, who is well-known as one of the best play callers in the country. Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart is still competing at a high level completing 70% passing with 15 scores andthree three picks on the year. WR Tre Harris remains one of the best receivers in the country, and the two standouts have connected for just less than 1,000 yards through the first eight games. With that being said, the Rebels have had too many drives stall out and have failed to convert short-yardage situations far too often than what the overall offensive numbers would suggest.

With those things considered, Ole Miss is still a very talented football team on both sides of the football. The Rebels defense ranks #1 in the country against the run, which will be very problematic for an Arkansas offense that relies heavily on the ground game to establish ball control. The problem for Arkansas is that I simply do not see them winning the battle on the line of scrimmage. QB Taylen Green is the x-factor in this match-up. Before last week’s blowout win over Mississippi State, Green had posted pretty average numbers. However, the Razorbacks do have some talent in the receiving corps, including WR Andrew Armstrong, who has 49 receptions for 722 yards on the season. The Razorbacks are going to need a big effort in the passing game, and the Rebels’ pass defense has been their Achilles Heel. Needless to say, Arkansas has paths to victory in this match-up, but it is mandatory that they win the turnover battle and make some big plays in the passing game!

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Trends

• Ole Miss is 6-3 ATS in the last nine games.
• Ole Miss has hit the “under” in 7 straight games.
• Ole Miss is 14-3 SU in the last 17 games.
• Ole Miss has hit the “under” in 7 of the last eight games on the road.
• Arkansas is 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• Arkansas is 2-8 ATS in the last ten games at home.
• Arkansas has hit the “under” in 4 of the last five games.
• Arkansas is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games against Ole Miss.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Prediction

I believe the turnover battle will be crucial in this match-up and could swing the game either way if both teams continue to have turnover issues they have shown at different points in the season. With that being said, I still believe the Rebels are the far superior team in terms of talent, scheme, and play-calling. I think we are getting Ole Miss at a discount this week due to recent box scores but I like the Rebels to take care of business convincingly!

Jay’s Pick: Take Ole Miss -6.5!

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