Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs Point Spread Pick

No. 10 Ole Miss Rebels (8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) vs. No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (9-0 SU, 2-6-1 ATS)

College Football Week 11

Date/Time: Saturday November 4th, 2023. 7:00PM (EST)

Where: Sanford Stadium Athens, GA

TV: ESPN

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: MISS +10.5/UGA -10.5

Moneyline: MISS +320/UGA -400

Total: 59.5

The 10th-ranked Ole Miss Rebels kept their SEC Championship hopes alive last week with a victory over Texas A&M. The Rebels defense allowed over 450 yards to the Aggies’ offense, but the Rebels’ offense was able to overcome the struggles in a 38-35 shootout. The Ole Miss offense has been one of the premier units in the SEC under Head Coach Lane Kiffin, and they currently rank 12th in the FBS, averaging 478 yards of total offense per game. This Saturday, the Rebels will be hoping the offense can come up big again when they take on the two-time defending national champions and undefeated Georgia Bulldogs between the hedges in Athens.

While the Georgia Bulldogs are 9-0 SU on the season, they are just 2-6-1 ATS on the year and have not yielded the overwhelmingly dominant performances that we have witnessed in the last two title runs. Granted, I would say the Bulldogs have improved collectively throughout the season and put together back to back impressive victories over Florida and no. 12 Missouri. In last week’s win over Missouri, the Bulldogs defense stood strong against one of the most underrated offenses in the country and forced a few timely turnovers that helped seal the win. This week, the Bulldogs defense faces one of their stiffer challenges of the season and will need to play well in order to cover a 10.5-point betting spread.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Analysis

There are a lot of intriguing angles to consider when breaking down this betting match-up. The Bulldogs are laying 10.5 points despite just narrowly escaping with a 30-21 victory over Missouri last week. In my opinion, the Rebels offense presents even more challenges against this stout Georgia defense. Ole Miss QB Jaxon Dart is a dual-threat quarterback who has given the Bulldogs problems and is performing at a high level. Dart has thrown for just less than 2,500 yards this season with 16 touchdowns and four picks. Meanwhile, the Rebels also have a pair of studs at the skill positions in RB Quinshon Judkins and a very talented receiving corps, which are going to challenge the Georgia secondary.

The key for the Bulldogs defense will be winning the battle up front to get pressure on Dart. If they fail to do so on a consistent basis, the Rebels will not go away quietly. Luckily, the Bulldogs have a pretty significant size and talent advantage on the offensive front against the Ole Miss defense. RB Daijun Edwards is averaging nearly 6 yards per carry despite a whopping 111 attempts on the season. Simply put, the success of the Georgia running game on early down is vital to the success of the offense. QB Carson Beck has played well over the last two games, but that was strictly because of the early down success from the Georgia running game. If the Bulldogs can win the battle along the trenches and have success on early downs, Beck should have opportunities for another strong performance along with the rest of the Georgia offense!

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Trends

• Ole Miss is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine games.
• Ole Miss has hit the “under” in four of the last six games.
• Ole Miss has hit the “under” in eight of the last 12 games on the road.
• Ole Miss is 3-6 ATS in the last nine games against Georgia.
• Georgia is 2-5 ATS in the last seven games.
• Georgia is 20-0 SU in the last 20 games at home.
• Georgia is 10-1 SU in the last 11 games against Ole Miss.
• Georgia has hit the “over” in five of the last six games.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs Prediction

I can see paths to a cover from both teams in this game. If Georgia’s defensive line dominates, they could produce turnovers and limit the effectiveness of the Rebels passing attack en route to a cover. However, I think the higher likelihood is that both offenses have success in this game. In a higher pace game, I think the Rebels have a higher likelihood of covering and potentially upsetting the Bulldogs. As a result, I’m taking the points.

Jay’s Pick: Take Ole Miss +10.5