Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Analysis & Recommended ATS Pick

Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 13
Date/Time: Saturday, November 23rd, 2024, 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Boone Pickens Stadium Stillwater, OK.
TV: ESPN+

Betting Odds

Point Spread: TTU -3.5/OKST +3.5
Moneyline: TTU -170/OKST +145
Total: 68.5

After dropping 3 of the last 4 games, the Texas Tech Red Raiders had a much needed “off” week in preparation for this Saturday’s road trip to Stillwater for a battle with the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Red Raiders started the season 5-1 SU but have lost their momentum during the 2nd half of the season. Offensively, the Red Raiders have one of the better units in the country, averaging 441 total yards and 35 points per game. However, as usual for Texas Tech, the defense has been a liability giving up point totals of 59, 35, and 41 in the recent losses to Baylor, TCU, and Colorado. The Red Raiders will attempt to turn things around this Saturday as small betting favorites over Oklahoma State.

While the Red Raiders’ defense has been a liability, the Oklahoma State defense has been a downright federal disaster. Oklahoma State’s defense has given up 499 total yards per game, which is the 2nd worst mark in college football and only better than Kent State statistically. After starting the season 3-0 SU, Oklahoma State has now lost seven straight games. To shed even more light on the defense, the Cowboys’ defense has given up a minimum of 38 points in each of those seven defeats. With Head Coach Mike Gundy’s nearly two decade tenure in Stillwater hanging in the balance, Oklahoma State desperately needs to end the 2024 campaign with some type of success, and that will be the goal this Saturday against Texas Tech!

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Analysis

The good news for Oklahoma State’s defensive struggles is that Texas Tech has been nearly as poor on the defensive side of the football. Therefore the Cowboys do not necessarily need a complete 180 degree turnaround but just need to be the better defense for 60 minutes on Saturday. For most of the season, college football experts have been waiting for RB Ollie Gordon to break following his monstrous 1,700-yard rushing campaign in 2023. Unfortunately, Gordon and the Oklahoma State offensive front have been unable to replicate that success, and Gordon has been held to just 714 yards during the season.

As a result, QB Alan Bowman has been forced to pick up the slack. Bowman has been good at times but very inconsistent, which is evident in the 16 passing touchdowns and 12 picks. From a match-up perspective, I would expect Oklahoma State to challenge the Texas Tech secondary, which is their weakest link on defense. More importantly, Cowboys receivers De’Zhaun Stribling and Brennan Presley will draw very favorable match-ups. The question is, can Bowman deliver without the plaguing turnovers?

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, I see a complete mismatch in the Texas Tech offense against Oklahoma State’s putrid defense. QB Behren Morton is playing at a respectable level with 21 touchdowns and just six picks on the season. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders have some serious threats at the skill positions in RB Tahj Brooks and WR Josh Kelly, who have combined for nearly 2,000 yards already this season. Needless to say, I believe the Red Raiders have the upside match-up on both sides of the ball. The key for this game will simply be execution and winning the turnover battle. If Texas Tech does those two things, I expect their talent level to shine in this game.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Trends

• Texas Tech is 10-5 SU in the last 15 games.
• Texas Tech has hit the “over” in 4 of the last six games.
• Texas Tech has hit the “under” in 7 of the last nine games on the road.
• Texas Tech is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games against Oklahoma State.
• Oklahoma State is 0-7 SU in the last seven games.
• Oklahoma State is 1-6 ATS in the last seven games.
• Oklahoma State is 1-5 ATS in the last six games at home.
• Oklahoma State is 12-2 SU in the last 14 games against Texas Tech.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Prediction

As mentioned above, I don’t have much faith in Oklahoma State’s chances from a match-up perspective. There is a chance that Coach Gundy garners some motivation for this match-up but I think Texas Tech will take care of business!

Jay’s Pick: Take Texas Tech -3.5

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