Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Texas Longhorns (3-3 SU, 4-1 ATS)
College Football Week 8
Date/Time: Saturday, October 21st, 2017 12:00 PM ET
Where: Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, TX
TV: ABC
by KEITH, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: TEX +7.5
Over/Under Total: 65.5
The Pokes will continue their Big 12 schedule, as they head south to Austin to face off with the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium. This fixture is one of national interest and will be aired on ABC for many demographics to witness. The contest will commence at 12:00 PM ET to comprise an earlier slate of action that will be influential from a perspective of College Football Playoff and overall conference implications. Oklahoma State has won the last two and have in total won three of the previous four against the Horns. In 2016, the Pokes welcomed Bevo to Stillwater and went to work on Texas in a 49-31 victory. Both teams enter on contrasting notes. For Oklahoma State, the Cowboys won convincingly against the Baylor Bears in a 59-16 beat-down last weekend. Texas enters off a bitter loss against their hated rival Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. Texas was up-ended by a score of 29-24 after trying to advantage of the Sooners coming in off a cataclysmic defeat in Norman.
Oklahoma State is a team many liked as a dark horse for the College Football Playoff in 2017. With the two-time defending conference champion and cross-state rival Oklahoma on the schedule, the Cowboys hopes are alive and well. Their one loss this year was to a TCU team that is currently in the top-five across all polls. Though the loss was at home, it is nonetheless classed as a quality loss. Oklahoma State has an opportunity to build momentum here and continue its campaign with a win in Austin. However, this will be a daunting task be that the Texas defense is far improved compared to the outfit that surrendered 51 points to Maryland in its season opener. The Pokes are a notoriously offensive-oriented football team and this has been a problem for the Cowboys to hamper for several seasons now. In addition, big games or games that could spell trouble are an Achilles heel for the Gundy bunch.
The Longhorns enter off a bitter loss but previous to this Texas had won two games straight. Overall, the Longhorns have been involved in several dogfights this season. Tom Herman has certainly got this program headed in the right direction but the question is how they will fare against yet another top-10 opponent in the second straight week. If their outing against Oklahoma is any indication, the Longhorns may be in line to pull off an upset here. However, they will have to figure out how to slow down arguably the best receiver in the country in Oklahoma State wide-out James Washington.
In the early stages of this market, we have seen the number inflate by 1.5 points as result of heavy steam rolling in on Oklahoma State. The consensus has backed this up with a lot of votes of confidence on the Cowboys. What jumps out at us is the initial offering we have seen and the public scoff it up in response. The Cowboys were booked as a -6 choice at the off and that is a notorious number to hook, line, and sink takers looking to snag what looks like an easy cover on the favorite. In Over/Under markets, we have seen this market rise by half of a point indicating action on the Over. Given the number on the table, many are expecting this one too be yet another patented Big 12 offensive duel. In this situation, Texas would offer tremendous equity.
The situation sets up perfectly for Oklahoma State to get into trouble. Next week, a huge contest is looming with West Virginia in Morgantown in what will be a pivotal affair for Oklahoma States efforts in 2017. The magnitude of the contest is something that may weigh heavily on the Pokes and put them in a position to fall into a trap. Oklahoma State owns the best offense in America but the only team with any form of defensive acumen (TCU) has shown there are ways to stymie this unit. Texas has a blueprint to study and apply to this contest and can sneak up on Oklahoma State in front of a raucous home crowd.
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