Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Oklahoma Sooners Betting Prediction

Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 10th, 2018 – 3:30 ET
Where: Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
TV: ABC

Point Spread: OKIE STATE +17.5 / OU -17.5
Total: OFF
Poll Rankings: Oklahoma State (NR) / Oklahoma (6)

Takeaways From Week 10

After pulling off an upset of the No. 6 Texas Longhorns at home two weeks ago in Stillwater, the Pokes returned to orbit when they were upset on the road at the Baylor Bears last Saturday. The Cowboys closed as a six-point favorite in the aforementioned contest, and the Bears would win 35-31. This result typifies Oklahoma State football as a whole. Oklahoma State authored impressive victories against Texas as mentioned earlier and Boise State at home only to be stunned by Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Baylor in games they were supposed to win. Once again, the Pokes are off the radar here for Bedlam, and many have touted them to orchestrate an upset against their bitter rivals potentially.

The Sooners are lucky to have left Lubbock, Texas with a victory on Saturday night when as a 14-point favorite they escaped with a 51-46 win against those pesky Texas Tech Red Raiders. Thanks to a series of Tech miscues that the Crimson and Cream capitalized on, the Sooners are sitting firmly in the driver seat with a Big 12 Championship Game appearance all but official here with a victory against the Pokes.

How the Public is Betting the Oklahoma State-Oklahoma Game

Out of the gate, the public has smothered the underdog in this contest. 63% of the consensus like the Pokes with the large allotment of points in this affair likely for several reasons. First, this is a fierce rivalry game, and perhaps it seems like Okie State is getting too many points. Secondly, these games are usually offensive in nature and thus in a shootout scenario, the points once again seem quite appealing.

The Historical

When you look at the historical record of this rivalry series for the last ten games, Oklahoma has pretty much run buckshot against their counterparts. The Sooners have won nine of the last ten Bedlam games. Oklahoma State’s sole victory over this span came in a 38-35 overtime thriller in Norman in 2014 in which the Pokes pulled the upset as a 21-point dog.

Injury Concerns

Heading into this contest, there are no critical injuries to the personnel of either squad.

When Oklahoma State Has the Ball

Oklahoma State can light up the scoreboard as they average 38.3 points per game (17th nationally). The Pokes are led by a talented battery comprised of running back Justice Hill (895 rushing yards, 8 TD) and quarterback Taylor Cornellius who has thrown for 2,617 yards through the air along with 20 touchdowns. This is a football team that also boasts a 1,000-yard receiver in Tylan Wallace. The Pokes have all kinds of weapons scattered all over the field, and they will be overjoyed at the fact that they can deploy them against an Oklahoma defense giving up 27.4 points per game (74th nationally) while surrendering 247 yards through the air (90th nationally).

When Oklahoma Has the Ball

There is only one word to describe Oklahoma’s offense: electric. The Sooners can attack you from all angles. This is an ensemble that generates 563.2 yards per game (2nd nationally) while scoring an insane 49.1 points per game (3rd nationally). There is nothing one-dimensional about this unit, they can hit you from the front, hit you from the back, go through the air, or put it on the ground and never lack. Poetry in motion is appropriate to characterize the Oklahoma offense thus why a rhyme scheme was necessary in depicting them.

Betting Trends

The away team is 5-1 ATS in the last six chapters of this storied rivalry. However, the Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in the previous five collisions between OU and Okie State. For those that like to play the Over, such a wager has gone 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings as these contests have basically been basketball games on turf.

Weather Report

Temperatures are expected to meander between the mid-40’s to mid-50’s with partly cloudy skies in Norman. Winds are supposed to be slight topping off at 9 MPH. It will be a humid one with percentages nearing 75%. The likelihood of precipitation remains minimal at 11%.

Keith Pick to Cover the Spread: Oklahoma -17.5

Despite the points looking tasty here, we will go the other way as any sight of a substantial public dog usually means that the favorite is undervalued. We will have no part of that. The bottom line is that the Sooners are shifting in second gear now as quarterback Kyler Murray more or less seems to get better with each game he plays. As a whole, the dual-threat star has been nothing short of stellar as he has thrown 31 touchdowns and just five interceptions while going for 2,689 yards through the air. However, he is not done there. Murray has also scampered for 574 yards and seven rushing scores. It is not of the question here for Murray to be a 3,000/1,000/30/10 kind of guy a-la Brad Smith and such performance should award this youngster a Heisman Trophy (but that’s just opinion). Situationally against an Oklahoma State defense that gives up 29.9 points, 151.2 rushing yards, and 245.1 passing yards per game, Murray will be a nightmare for this team to stop. Sure, we highlighted the fact that Oklahoma State has a favorable match-up against the OU secondary but the difference here is that Oklahoma State is a one-trick pony, unlike their counterparts. The Cowboys pass the ball first, and that opens up the run.

On the contrary, Oklahoma does whatever it wants, whenever it wants. If you undermine quarterback Taylor Cornelius, the Pokes will stall. However, Okie State will have no answer for Murray who has multiple tricks up his sleeve. This one will be a blowout.