Oklahoma State at Tulsa: Free College Football Pick & Predictions

No. 13 Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-01SU, 1-1 ATS)
NCAA College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday September 14th, 2024. 12:00 PM (EST)
Where: Chapman Stadium Tulsa, OK
TV: ESPN2

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: OKST -20/TLSA +20
Moneyline: OSU -1200/TUL +750
Total: 62.5

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The Oklahoma State Cowboys survived a big scare last week when they pulled out an overtime victory over the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Cowboys trailed by as much as 21-7 at the half but rallied in the final 30 minutes of play behind RB Ollie Gordon II and WR Brennan Presley, who both made multiple key plays down the stretch to help lead the comeback effort. On Saturday, the 13th-ranked Cowboys will take their undefeated campaign on the road, for the first time this season, to battle the Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Chapman Stadium.

Tulsa suffered their first loss of the season last week against Arkansas State in a 28-24 outcome. The Golden Hurricane led 17-7 in the opening half but ultimately succumbed due to a combination of turnovers and a lack of defensive stops. The Golden Hurricane defense gave up on 400 total yards and has clearly been a weakness through the first two games of the season. However, Tulsa may be in a somewhat bounce-back situation going into Saturday’s homestead against Oklahoma State, at least from a betting perspective. The Tulsa offense is heavily geared towards moving the football on the ground, and Oklahoma State has struggled to defend the run. If that trend continues on Saturday, the Golden Hurricane could look very appetizing with a 20-point spread!

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Betting Analysis

Despite a somewhat breakout game from WR Brennan Presley last week, the Oklahoma State offense still runs behind the legs of RB Ollie Gordon, who many consider the best tailback in the country. More importantly, the Cowboys have much better talent on the offensive side of the football, which will be evident when they go against an inferior defense in Tulsa this week. Simply put, I would expect Oklahoma State to have success and control much of the tempo with their ground attack. However, my concern is that Oklahoma State is missing the quick strike/big play ability. QB Alan Bowman has not looked great, and I’m not convinced Oklahoma State will take advantage of opportunities down the field.

If the Cowboys do not make several big plays in the passing game, I believe Tulsa could keep this game somewhat close. The Golden Hurricane offense puts a heavy focus on running the football, and they have several solid rushers in the backfield that will keep fresh legs on the field, and that could cause problems for an Oklahoma State defense that has just been plain bad against the run. Tulsa QB Kirk Francis has also played fairly well to start his collegiate career. If he continues to gain confidence, I just think there will be opportunities for this Tulsa offense, and it will likely not take a lot of opportunities to keep this within the 20-point betting spread!

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Betting Trends

• Oklahoma State is 8-4 ATS in the last 12 games.
• Oklahoma State has hit the “over” in five of the last six games.
• Oklahoma State is 5-1 SU in the last six games.
• Oklahoma State is 4-2 ATS in the last six games against Tulsa.
• Tulsa is 2-7 SU in the last nine games.
• Tulsa is 1-9 ATS in the last ten games at home.
• Tulsa is 0-10 SU in the last ten games against Big 12 opponents.
• Tulsa has hit the “over” in four of the last six games against Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Prediction

I do not have a lot of confidence in this Oklahoma State defense, which is the reason I lean towards taking the 20 points with Tulsa. However, I also realize the Cowboys offense should be far superior, and things could get lopsided in a hurry with a couple of big plays. As a result, I think the best play in this game is taking the “Over,” which has consistently cashed for both teams in recent games!

Jay’s Pick: Take the over 62.5!