Oklahoma Sooners (8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS)
College Football Week 12
Date/Time: Saturday, November 19th, 8:00pm EST
Where: Milan Puskar Stadium – Morgantown, WV
TV: ABC
by Bob,NCAAFootballHandicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread:OKL -3 / WVA +3
Over/Under Total: OFF
The prime time game of the week on ABC this coming Saturday will be the Big 12 showdown between the 11th ranked Oklahoma Sooners and the 16th ranked West Virginia Mountaineers.
Not only does this game have huge bowl game implications, but it also carries much weight in the race to be the Big 12 Conference Champion. Oklahoma has won four straight in this series including a 44-24 win over the Mountaineers at home last season.
The line opened with the Sooners as the three point favorite on the road over the Mountaineers and it appears that the public likes that pick as well. 63% of the early action has the money on Oklahoma to get the cover in Morgantown. Both teams have impressive win loss records on the season with Oklahoma at 8-2 and West Virginia at 8-1 but neither has been impressive playing against the spread in 2016. Both the Sooners and Mountaineers are under .500 against the spread.
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Oklahoma was one of my potential final four teams coming into 2016 and that is pretty much a lost cause. However, Oklahoma can still win the Big 12 and make a big time bowl game come January. Oklahoma has a deadly offense led by quarterback Baker Mayfield and running back Joe Mixon. Mayfield has the Sooners offense ranked 10th in the nation averaging over 335 yards per game in the air while Joe Mixon is leading the entire nation in all purpose yards after ten games. The defense for Oklahoma has been the weakness. The Sooners are allowing their opponents to score over 30 points per game and already in 2016 they have given up over 40 points four times including 59 allowed in a win over Texas Tech. If the Sooners plan to remain unbeaten in the Big 12, they better play some defense. West Virginia’s offense is not as potent as it was in years past, but they can still score. The Mountaineers are averaging over 30 points a game and they also play a pretty solid defense ranking in the top 20 of the FBS. Oklahoma cannot let the West Virginia offense score at will or it could be a long night in Morgantown.
West Virginia is still alive in the Big 12 Championship hunt and actually have an outside chance to make the College Football Playoff. Yeah, they need A LOT of help along the way, but the chance is still there. The Mountaineers bring a very balanced offensive attack to this game. In 2016, West Virginia has averaged 285 passing yards per game and 211 rushing yards per game. This accompanied with a top 20 defense has the Mountaineers winning games. The only loss this season was to Oklahoma State and if West Virginia can somehow win out the rest of the way, this could end up a very special season. The key to this Saturday night is to get out to a fast start. The crowd in Morgantown can get rowdy and cause problems for the Sooners, but the Mountaineers have to give them reason to cheer. Another key is on the defensive side of the ball. West Virginia has played well on D but Oklahoma is possibly the best all round offense they have faced this season. If they can slow down Joe Mixon and get pressure on Baker Mayfield, this could be a good one for the Mountaineers.
This game is going to be a wild one. I predict lots of points and I have a feeling that late in the fourth quarter it will still be undecided. I could see this game going either way, but something is telling me that this time, the public is right. As much as I would love to see West Virginia get a huge win on Saturday night, I think in the end that Oklahoma has too many weapons. Oklahoma will end up winning this game something like 44-40 in a high scoring affair.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE OKLAHOMA SOONERS -3
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