Oklahoma Sooners vs. LSU Tigers: Betting Preview & Over/Under Pick

NCAAF Week 14 – Oklahoma Sooners at LSU Tigers

• Where: Tiger Stadium (Baton Rouge, LA)
• When: Saturday, November 30th at 7:00 PM EST
• Watch: ESPN

Betting Odds

• LSU Tigers: -6.0
• Over/Under: 47.5

Game Preview

Another great game in the 7 PM slate will take place as the Oklahoma Sooners head to Baton Rouge to take on the LSU Tigers. Coming into the 2024 season, there was a plethora of lofty aspirations for both programs, and while they have each played well at times, neither have really lived up to their typical standards. Inconsistent play and injuries have been a factor at times, but this game will prove to be a perfect opportunity to rewrite the narrative on 2024. Both squads come into this Saturday’s game after a recent win and they are hoping to carry momentum into bowl season, as neither will be vying for a playoff spot or a spot in a conference championship game. This game features a drastic contrast in playstyles but is an exciting opportunity for each to pickup another statement win to add to their resume. Every big win can influence the committees decision on bowl allocations so it will be important for each side to enforce their will on the other. Let’s take a look at the up and down season the Sooners and Tigers have had, identify the preferred gameplans and decide who to trust to make us money on the betting line.

Oklahoma Sooners: A Season of Adjustments

The 2024 Oklahoma Sooners have had a tough adjustment to the gauntlet that is the SEC. Currently sitting at 6-5 on the year and 13th in the conference, the Sooners need a big win here on the road to pick up their seventh and enhance the pedigree of bowl game. Plagued by injuries to key playmakers at times, Oklahoma’s offense has not been as dynamic as we are used to seeing. There are still plenty of questions on the availability of the wide receiving corps, as 3 of the top 4 pass catchers enter this week with injury designations. This has no doubt made things much more difficult for quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Sooner offense has only averaged 172.8 passing yards per game. Undoubtedly, Oklahoma has had to rely much more on their running game and have done so successfully to the tune of 154.2 yards per game. As a unit, Oklahoma is averaging 25.0 points per game, but has difficulty in converting 3rd down chances, only doing so at a 35.4% rate. The Oklahoma defense is their strength. They allow an average of just 329.5 total yards per game and concede only 20.2 points per game to opponents. They are one of the strongest in the nation at defending the run and have kept opponents to an average of just 105.5 yards per game on the ground.

LSU Tigers: Offensive Firepower

The LSU Tigers are essentially the polar opposite of the Oklahoma Sooners, meaning that their biggest strength is their offense. At 7-4 on the season, an eighth win will paint a very different story if they are able to win their last game on their home field. Garrett Nussmeier has played very well under center for the Tigers and has thrown for 3458 yards and 23 touchdowns in 2024. The LSU passing offense is the 7th ranked unit in the nation, averaging 317.7 yards per game. This dominance has allowed LSU to put an average of 28.6 points per game on the board and has been a big factor in their 50.3% conversion rate on 3rd downs. The running game has not been as explosive, making the Tigers a bit one dimensional, but ultimately it has not hurt them too badly. The Tigers average just shy of 120 rushing yards per game, but also excel at using their running backs in the passing game, so the numbers are somewhat misleading. The LSU defense has been very inconsistent on the year and has allowed certain opponents to exploit them in both phases. They are quite balanced at defending the run and the pass and rank 64th and 60th nationally in those respective categories. The Tigers hold their opposition to an average of 24.4 points per game, but also allow them to chew up an average of 376.3 total yards per game. They have a big opportunity here against a banged-up Oklahoma offense to build some momentum for that unit as they seek a key bowl victory.

Betting Pick

My Pick: Over 47.5 (-110)

The Oklahoma offense has not been great in 2024, but they really have nothing to lose here on the road. They are already bowl eligible and I expect them to sellout in search of a statement win. LSU also needs to make a big statement and will attempt to light up the scoreboard and force the Sooners to play from behind. Rarely do we get an opportunity to bet an over between Oklahoma and LSU that is under 50 points, and I for one will be jumping all over it. This will be a 2 unit play for me this Saturday.

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