No. 19 Oklahoma Sooners (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (2-5 SU, 4-2-1 ATS)
College Football Week 10
Date and Time: Saturday November 1st, 2014. 12:00PM EST
Where: Jack Trice Stadium Ames, I.A.
TV: FS2
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: OK -16.5/ISU +16.5
Over/Under Total: 62.5
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After having a week off to regroup after 2 losses in the last 3 games, the 19th ranked Oklahoma Sooners return to action this week against the Iowa State Cyclones inside Jack Trice Stadium. The Cyclones are winless in Big 12 competition this year going 0-4 SU even though they nearly knocked off Texas two weeks ago in a 48-45 loss. Iowa State has had an extra week to prepare this week, like the Sooners, and are looking to build off of a very strong offensive performance against Texas. This Saturday Iowa State looks to score a big upset and pull off their first victory over Oklahoma since 1990.
The Cyclones have been pretty bad on offense this season scoring just 27.4 points per game which ranks 83rd in the FBS. The rushing offense is among the worst groups in college football averaging just 117 yards per game and the passing attack has been mediocre at best averaging 252 yards per game (52nd in FBS). However as bad as the offense has been on paper and despite any wins in the conference, the Cyclones have still been pretty competitive. Iowa State went toe to toe with Kansas State and nearly pulled off the win in Austin two weeks ago. The question this week is can Iowa State pull through to finally pull out a victory or will Oklahoma rebound as expected?
As mentioned earlier, history tells us that the Sooners should be a safe bet at least to win straight up. The Sooners have not loss to Iowa State since 1990 and have not been beaten in Ames since 1960. Oklahoma has dominated Iowa State in recent meetings and has covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 matchups. If you look at the most recent matchups, the Sooners have beaten the Cyclones by an average of 31 points in each of the last 4 meetings. This week it appears the Sooners would be in a great position to bounce back following their recent losses to both TCU and Kansas State.
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However for Oklahoma to return to form the defense has to play much better. The Sooners defense gave up point totals of 37 and 31 to both TCU and Kansas State. In fact, the Sooners have given up 31 points on average in each of their last 4 games. Iowa State quarterback Sam Richardson has the capability to frustrate the Sooners defense again this week. Richardson has hit 61% of his passes for 1,699 yards with 13 touchdowns and 6 picks on the season. Richardson also leads the team in rushing with 319 yards and two touchdowns. Oklahoma has struggled tremendously against mobile quarterbacks this season, just look at both Trevone Boykin and Jake Waters stats against the Sooners. With an extra week of preparation, it will be interesting to see if Oklahoma has found a way to fill some of their holes in the defense or if they continue to struggle against another similar style quarterback.
Offensively the Sooners have been strong and should be able to give a subpar Cyclones defense all they can handle. Oklahoma houses a balanced offensive attack that can beat you on the ground or through the air. Quarterback Trevor Knight was off to a horrific start earlier this year but has rebounded in recent games. On the season, Knight has thrown just 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. The offense relies heavily on running back Samaje Perine who leads the team with 657 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. I expect Oklahomas offensive line to give Perine the opportunity to have a big game this Saturday and perhaps open up some more opportunities in the passing game.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Oklahoma should be able to score plenty of points in this game this Saturday. The Sooners offensive talent should outmatch the Cyclones defense in nearly every matchup. However, I am still not convinced in this Sooners defense and believe Iowa State could give them some trouble again. Take the over 62.5!