Oklahoma Sooners (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) vs. Baylor Bears (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 6:30 PM ET
Where: McLean Stadium Waco, TX
TV: FOX SPORTS NETWORK
by KEITH, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: OU -26
Over/Under Total: 62.5
The Oklahoma Sooners will kick off their Big 12 title defense when they travel to Waco, Texas to square off with the down-trodden Baylor Bears at McLean Stadium. The two teams enter on contrasting notes this season. For Baylor, this year has been classified as tumultuous. The Bears have now fallen to 0-3 after they wrapped up a marginal 2016-17 campaign with a bowl win against Boise State in the Cactus Bowl. Hope was abreast when the Bears blew out the Broncos but the hype was quickly evaporated when the Bears were upset at McLean Stadium to open up their campaign with a stunning defeat suffered against Liberty. The Flames would orchestrate one of the biggest upsets in college football history, defeating the Bears as a 33.5-point road pup. For Oklahoma, the stock on the Sooners is through the roof after they took care of Ohio State at home as a 7.5-point road underdog two weeks ago. Most recently, Oklahoma comes in off a thrashing of Tulane while the Bears fell once again to Duke on the road.
As we highlighted previously, the Sooners were left with some voids after the exceptional talent which propelled them to a successful title retain in 2016 left Norman. A huge challenge was finding the personnel to fill those occupancies. However, Oklahoma returned a Heisman candidate in Baker Mayfield who was pivotal in igniting the offense for the second half of 2016. In the early going, Mayfield has looked exceptional and the vacancies at key positions seem to be non-existent. Most of this can be chalked up to his play. Oklahomas offense has flourished on the captainship of Lincoln Riley and the stunning retirement of Bobby Stoops is another narrative holding little water. The Sooners enter this fixture as a heavy favorite but we have seen some early action on the Bears with perceived home field advantage. The series has been a competitive one for the most part. In the last six meetings between both sides, each side has taken three wins. However, these were different Baylor squads that Oklahoma faced. Currently, Baylor looks more like the kick-around squad that most are accustomed to seeing historically.
As we have frequented before, a name brand team like Oklahoma imposes premiums on those that wish to take action on them. The hype machine surrounding the Sooners and their historic record has propelled their stock through the ceiling. As a result, the number is even more inflated than usual. Still, in spite of this Oklahoma has been perfect against the spread this season. Furthermore, Baylor is a tough team to sell at this point. The Bears fell to UTSA where they were dominated despite a close score line. Though the score was just 17-10, the Road Runners had their way as they are heavy run option team. The notoriously porous Bears defense did not have an answer and their offense could not keep them in the game as they have in previous seasons. Usually, a number like the one presented warrants a play on the underdog. Especially, when the pooch is at home. However, this is a rare situation where chalk may be a safer play. The market has seemed to finally have caught up to Baylor as they were overpriced in their first two fixtures by virtue of their propensity to be a powerful offensive team. Since the Bears could not produce, they quickly became a pooch against a nominal team like Duke. Chances are the number here is likely appropriate but early action signals that there is little faith Oklahoma can win by the margin presented. Nevertheless, Oklahoma looks like they are a College Football Playoff caliber team and we may just get them at a reduced price in a rare occasion due to the number coming down. In this case, dont be afraid to spot the points. Furthermore, the Under may also be worth a look be that the market has increased by eight points in some scenarios. Very simply, Baylors offense may not be able to score enough points to help takers hit this number, even if Oklahoma puts up over 50 points. While Oklahoma may jack up Baylors defense, there is a very strong possibility that the Bears are stymied yet again on offensive. Therefore, the Under is also worth a look.
KEITHs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: OKLAHOMA -26 and UNDER 62.5. Bet your OU/BU picks at an online sportsbook where you can bet on games at -105 odds instead of the more expensive -110 price tag that your bookie is sticking you with! Making the switch to betting at discounted odds will save you TONS of cash! Find this great offer as well as 20 point teasers and parlays up to 25 teams at the web’s best bookmaker: 5Dimes.