Ohio vs. Toledo Picks and Predictions | Week 13

Ohio Bobcats (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. Toledo Rockets (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 13
Date/Time: Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 7PM EST
Where: Glass Bowl, Toledo, Ohio
TV: ESPN2

The Ohio Bobcats make the short in-state trip to the Glass Bowl to take on the Toledo Rockets on Wednesday in this MAC showdown between 7-3 teams. Ohio is still in the conference running, sitting atop the standings with a 5-1 conference record with two other teams, one they’ve beaten and one that beat them. To have a chance, they need to keep winning, and it’s not an easy task against Toledo. Last week, the Rockets laid a 37-10 beating on Central Michigan, as they enter this home-game with some momentum. They’ll need it against an Ohio team that has really gotten into a groove later in the season. Their 35-10 win last week to Eastern Michigan was their third straight, as they have been playing great since losing their only conference game a month ago. What’s the right move for this Wednesday’s MAC showdown out of Toledo?

Points to Consider

The last time these teams tangled, the MAC Championship was on the line, with Toledo taking that down in late 2022, marking the 14th time Toledo had beaten Ohio in their last 16 meetings. How much comfort a Toledo backer should get from that is questionable. Under head coach Tim Albin, Ohio has really upgraded its program, coming off consecutive 10-win seasons and bowl wins. They’re on that same pace this season and Toledo might not find this as easy as they have in prior seasons. It’s really not the same Ohio team.

Some of these same things can be said for a Toledo program that has really galvanized around head coach Jason Candle, coming off an 11-win year in 2023 and in the midst of a good season in ’24. And while they have a good record against Ohio, it’s not an annual matchup, and they haven’t tangled enough with Albin’s team to really make that a pattern. But Toledo benefits from seeing their offense come alive these last two weeks. Make no mistake, though, for as well as they’ve done the last few weeks, it might be the Bobcats who enter this is a bit-scarier form, with a 76-10 margin over their last two opponents heading into this showdown.

What Toledo Needs to Do

For the Rockets to have any chance in this high-stakes conference matchup, they need to get QB Tucker Gleason untracked, something that shouldn’t be that hard to do. Gleason benefits from having two nice targets in receivers Jerjuan Newton and Junior Vanderross, III., as well as a good tight end in Anthony Torres. Gleason is adept with using his legs too, having run in 7 TDs to go with the 19 he has through the air. We’ve seen the Rockets’ defense wane in terms of stoutness at times this season, often bailed out by their saving grace—a good pass-rush, along with being very disruptive with ball-hawk secondary members like Nasir Bowers. The secondary will need to curtail the Ohio pass-attack, led by a dangerous receiver in Coleman Owen. And just as Ohio will need to deal with the dual-threat Gleason, the Toledo “D” will be faced with the task of curtailing Ohio QB Parker Navarro—no small feat.

Ohio’s Recipe for Success

I’d imagine the Bobcats will be looking to run the ball well, both with standout back Anthony Tyus, III., along with the active legs of Navarro, which have found the end zone 9 times this season. He might not be the passer that Gleason is, with eight picks to go along with just seven touchdown passes, but they make up for it on the ground, and when Navarro starts dialing it in with Owen, it sure doesn’t seem like their pass-game is hurting. Last week represented as good as Navarro has looked as a passer this season and maybe he can keep it going this week, albeit in a more difficult matchup. And while the Ohio defense isn’t particularly flashy, they have been very stout as of late. Granted, some of those standout defensive showings came against the more-struggling offenses in this conference, but Gleason and Company will be dealing with an incoming Ohio defense that surpasses the difficulty of that they’ve been seeing recently by a fair margin.

Toledo has been tough against the run in certain spots, with there also being enough times where you saw opponents have success in that area to make it so Tyus and Navarro could get some business done this week. They have a narrower route, being that the bulk of their production more or less runs through three guys. It makes it so if Toledo can’t stop those guys, they have no chance, but there’s also less to keep in check, as opposed to the more multi-pronged Toledo approach. But for Ohio to be in this one, they need to have Navarro, Tyus, and Owen hitting on all cylinders.

Take the Points

Even with this being an in-state spot for the Bobcats, Toledo at home isn’t to be undersold, as this is a high-stakes late-season spot where they should have some solid support at home. It’s just that in a game where there is a lot of splitting hairs, Ohio, having outscored their last three opponents 133-26 and now getting points in this spot, is a little hard to pass. And despite this being a tough spot against an opponent who has recently had their measure as a program, I see the Bobcats giving this one a good go on Wednesday in Toledo. I’ll take the Bobcats.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Ohio Bobcats plus 2.5 points.

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