Ohio vs. Miami-Ohio: Spread Pick for Saturday’s Conference Title Game

Ohio Bobcats (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. Miami-Ohio RedHawks (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS)
MAC Championship Game
Date/Time: Saturday, December 7, 2024 at 12PM EST
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
TV: ESPN

The Ohio Bobcats take on in-state rivals the Miami-Ohio RedHawks at Ford Field for the MAC Championship on Saturday. The conference title is on the line between two teams who might have started slow but really got cooking once conference play got rolling. With the RedHawks, you’re talking about a team that has won 7 games in a row entering this contest, including last week’s 29-12 win over Bowling Green. Ohio, meanwhile, enters this on the heels of a 42-21 win over Ball State last week. It was their fifth win in a row, as both teams carry nice winning streaks into this game. The last game the Bobcats lost, incidentally, was to this very RedHawks team. Let’s break this down and see what’s the right move as these teams duke it out for the MAC title.

What October 19 Tells Us

On October 19, these teams met in Oxford, Ohio, as the RedHawks were able to hold it down at home with a 30-20 win over this Bobcats team. And while there was nothing wrong with that win on paper for the Redhawks, as they won at home and covered the spread, the game’s final score probably makes it look closer than it really was. The RedHawks took a 30-6 lead deep into the final quarter, with the Bobcats adding on a couple of superfluous scores at the end to make it look better.

With Bobcats’ starting QB Parker Navarro struggling in the first game against Miami-Ohio, Ohio used both of their quarterbacks in that game, a departure from their normal approach. We’ve seen Navarro really grow over the course of the season, contributing on Friday with five total TDs in the critical win over Ball State. Miami-Ohio, meanwhile, got a big game from RB Keyon Mozee. While QB Brett Gabbert threw three TDs. They’re hoping that balanced effectiveness gets them over the hump against this week, with the stakes much higher.

Offensive Variety and Defense

In terms of overall offensive ability, perhaps there’s not a ton separating the two schools. There is a lot to like on both sides. For Ohio, they’re really reaping the benefits of Navarro’s dual-threat capabilities. He works well with 1000-yard receiver Coleman Owen. His ability to run is what really gives his game an edge, with 13 TD runs this season. Along with Anthony Tyus, III., who almost ran for 1000 yards, they can do a lot of damage in that area.

The RedHawks have some of that same appeal. They got the 1000-yard back in Mozee, but what they lack in a mobile and running quarterback, they make up for it with a more-vital aerial profile, with a trio of bigtime receivers in Cade McDonald, Javon Tracy, and Reggie Virgil. Where the real separation begins to occur between the two teams on the defensive side of the ball. And we saw this the first time around, with Ohio basically in knots until very late in the game, in fact—too late. Now, we see them entering this contest where, in their last five games, they’ve allowed 12 or fewer points four times. While they didn’t unleash a giant dose of this in their first game, they’re also a playmaking defense that can get after the passer in a big way and manufacture turnovers. Ohio may have gotten off light last time with just one pick and a few sacks.

What Ohio Needs to Do

They have to find a way to get that run game cranked up. Maybe they can parlay the growth of Navarro since that first game, along with the skills of their other pieces like Tyus, III. and get some things cooking. To their credit, they did manage to get in the end zone three times on the ground against the RedHawks in their first meeting, though the run game as a whole didn’t really do its part in helping the Bobcats’ offense maintain continuity. And Navarro simply has to be better. Maybe in the MAC, he saw some pretty easy defenses, and this Miami-Ohio one is all wrong for him. Or maybe he can eliminate some mistakes and get into a groove.

Maybe Ohio can get their defense to respond better in this matchup. Since losing to Miami-Ohio in October, the Bobcats have played in five games and allowed 54 combined points. Their pass rush is really cranking it up, and like Miami-Ohio, they can register turnovers and really lend a large helping hand to the overall team effort. This is definitely as tough as it gets for them in the conference, but maybe, having seen some things already, they can do a little better this time around.

Take the Small Favorite

It’s an almost excruciating call to make in a game where a wide range of perspectives seem plausible. I simply cannot overlook the efforts of the Bobcats and how they closed the season and rebounded from the previous loss to the RedHawks. I just sense that what the RedHawks do on both sides of the ball has a better chance of sticking in this particular matchup. While Ohio could pick up on the momentum they created at the end of the last game, I see them getting off to another slow start against this defense, which could cost them. I like Miami-Ohio in this one. I’m taking the RedHawks

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks minus 2.5 points.

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