Ohio State vs Texas Cotton Bowl: Expert Analysis & Picks

No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS) vs. No. 5 Texas Longhorns (13-2 SU, 8-7 ATS)
College Football Playoff SemiFinal Cotton Bowl Betting Preview
Date/Time: Friday, January 10th, 2025, 7:30PM (EST)
Where: AT&T Stadium Arlington, TX.
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: OSU -5/TEX +5
Moneyline: OSU -215/TEX +180
Total: 54.5

Last week, the Ohio State Buckeyes sent shockwaves throughout college football by dismantling the no. 1 ranked Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes dominated in every faucet of the game and jumped out to a 34-0 lead before half-time and essentially cruised in the 2nd half to a 41-21 victory. Needless to say, the criticism Ohio State and Head Coach Ryan Day faced in the season finale loss to Michigan has become an afterthought following back-to-back playoff victories. On Friday, the Buckeyes will have the opportunity to earn a shot to play in the National Championship when they meet the no. 5 Texas Longhorns inside AT&T Stadium in the historic Cotton Bowl.

The Longhorns bid to the semifinal match-up against the Buckeyes stemmed from a 39-31 double-overtime victory over Arizona State, which was far closer than any of the experts predicted. Earlier this year, Texas spent several weeks ranked as the no. 1 team in the country, and their only two losses this season come against the same team in, the Georgia Bulldogs. Despite those facts, the Longhorns have not exactly been playing their best football and found themselves on the right side of competitive playoff wins over Clemson and Arizona State. At face value, the Longhorns have all of the talent needed to win a National Championship. However, they have simply not been playing their best football, and turnovers have been a big issue in recent weeks. For those reasons, combined with Ohio State’s recent stellar performances, the Longhorns will be the betting underdogs (currently +5.0) for the first time this season!

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis

It’s going to be hard for bettors not to be dazzled by the Buckeyes blowout over Oregon last week, but we must remember each week is a new match-up. For this Friday’s semifinal, the Buckeyes and Longhorns have posted eerily similar stats throughout the season, which has been highlighted by dominant defensive play and strong execution on the offensive side of the football. Defensively, Ohio State has produced the best defensive performance in college football this season, allowing just 245 yards per game, but Texas is not far behind in the #3 spot, yielding just 265 yards per game.

With that being said, both of these offenses are focused on establishing the run. The Longhorns success during the 2nd half of the season has been attributed to the running attack with RB Quintrevion Wisner which previously took pressure off of Texas QB Quinn Ewers. However, the Longhorns have not found as much success running the football in the playoffs, and in turn, Ewers has tossed at least one interception in each playoff game. In my opinion, the Longhorns’ ability to run the football will be paramount towards winning this match-up. The Buckeyes’ defense has been downright nasty against the run, and if they can force Ewers and the passing attack into consistent obvious passing situations, I would not be surprised if turnovers tell the story again.

On the other side of the football, Texas also has one of the more talented defenses in the country that is definitely capable of disrupting this Buckeyes offense. However, we have also seen the Longhorns’ defense seemingly get worse in the latter stages of each of their first two match-ups and even going back to the loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Personally, I think the Buckeyes have a much better power-rushing attack as compared to Texas which leads to better paths to be successful on the ground. After all, both TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are approaching the 1,000-yard plateau. To make matters worse for Texas, senior QB Will Howard appears to be playing his best ball following back-to-back 300-yard passing performances, which has totaled five touchdowns and just one pick in each of the prior two playoff match-ups. As a result, it just appears that Ohio State has the more reliable path to victory unless Texas can swing the momentum with big plays and key turnovers.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Trends

• Ohio State is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games.
• Ohio State is 7-1 SU in the last eight games.
• Ohio State is 12-2 SU in the last 14 games as the betting favorite.
• Ohio State has hit the “over” in four of the last five games against SEC opponents.
• Texas is 3-6 ATS in the last nine games.
• Texas has hit the “under” in eight of the last 11 games.
• Texas is 7-1 SU in the last eight games.
• Texas is 1-5 ATS in the last six games against Big Ten opponents.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Prediction

I have not been very impressed with Texas throughout these playoffs despite two very favorable match-ups. Meanwhile, I believe Ohio State is playing their best football of the season, and timing is everything in the playoffs. If Texas continues to struggle with turnovers, do not be surprised if the Buckeyes make it look easy once again!

Jay’s Pick: Take Ohio State -5

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