Ohio State vs. Oregon Rose Bowl: Buckeyes vs. Ducks Picks & Predictions

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks, 1/1/25
When: 5 pm ET Wednesday, Jan. 1
Where: The Rose Bowl
TV: ESPN

Point spread: Ohio St. -2.5/Ore +2.5
Money line: Ohio St. -135/Ore +115
Over/under: 55

 
They caught some flak, but the expanded College Football Playoff got something right when it set up a traditional Rose Bowl match-up for us to watch and bet as Oregon battles Ohio State on New Year’s Day in Pasadena.
 
These teams, new conference rivals, met for a dandy of a game back in Eugene in October, a 32-31 Oregon victory. And the spread on this Rose Bowl indicates this game will probably play close, too.
 

College Football Playoff Betting Odds

 
The CFP betting market opened Ohio State at -1.5 over Oregon, with an over/under of right around 54. Early betting action bumped both the Buckeyes to -2.5 and the total to 55.
 
According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings (Sagarin.com) the line on this game should be Ohio State -1.

Rose Bowl Betting Preview

 
Ohio State reached this CFP quarter-final by trouncing Tennessee in a first-round game in Columbus last Saturday, 42-17. The Buckeyes, favored at -7, led 21-0 after 12 minutes of play. Ohio State allowed the Vols to get within 21-10 into the half but scored the first 21 points out of the locker room and eased home from there for the easier-than-expected victory.
 
The Buckeyes out-gained Tennessee 473-256, and about half the yardage the Ohio State defense allowed came in garbage time.
 
Following three weeks of dealing with the aftermath of the loss to Michigan to finish the regular season, the Buckeyes responded nicely, perhaps creating some momentum to carry out to Pasadena.
 
Ohio State began this season as the No. 2 team in both the major polls and the favorite to win the Big 10. The Buckeyes started 5-0, allowing a total of 34 points through their first five games. Ohio State then lost that crazy game out at Oregon 32-31 on a late Ducks field goal. The Buckeyes then beat Nebraska in a close game, won at Penn State, breezed through Purdue and Northwestern, and put Indiana in its place. But OSU then laid a big egg in the big game against Michigan, losing outright as a 19-point favorite 13-10, which kept it from playing in the Big 10 championship game.
 
Nonetheless, the Buckeyes finished at No. 6 in the final CFP standings, which set up the game with Tennessee.
 
Meanwhile, Oregon reached the CFP by playing a perfect 13-0 this season, going 9-0 in Big 10 play and winning the Big 10 championship game over Penn State. The Ducks started just a bit slowly this season, winning games but covering just one of the first five spreads they faced. But Oregon came up big in their biggest game of the season, the 32-31 decision over these Buckeyes. The Ducks basically sailed home there through a slew of mediocre Big 10 foes, the only close call a 16-13 win at Wisconsin.
 
Oregon then held off the Nittany Lions in that Big 10 title tilt 45-37, covering at -3.
 
So the Ducks, who began the season ranked No. 3 in both polls, head into this Rose Bowl at No. 1.
 
Oregon drove the opening possession of that conference championship game 84 yards to a touchdown and never trailed. UO went up 28-10 in the second quarter, letting the Lions get within one score a couple of times but responding immediately with subsequent scores.
 
The Ducks actually got out-gained by Penn State 523-469, but a lot of that was situational.
 

Ohio State-Oregon History

 
The Buckeyes are 9-2 all-time against the Ducks, and that includes a couple of previous Rose Bowl decisions and a win in the 2015 national championship game. But Oregon beat Ohio State earlier this season 32-31.
 
Neither team ever led that game by more than one score, and the lead changed hands seven times. In the end, the Ducks kicked a field goal to take the final lead with just under two minutes to go, then secured the W with a defensive stop as time ran out.
 
That game played very evenly on the stat sheet; the only big difference was two Buckeyes turnovers that turned into 10 Oregon points.
 
Also, that game played over a total of 55 as the teams combined for almost 1,000 yards of offense.

Common Opponents

 
These teams played four common opponents this season: Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue. Oregon played those foes to 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, and +124 YPG, while Ohio State played 3-1 both SU and ATS and +143 YPG.
 

Totals Report

 
The Under is 7-6 in Buckeyes games this season, averaging 47 total points.
 
The Under is also 7-6 in Ducks games, averaging 54 points.
 

Free Rose Bowl Betting Pick

 
These teams are very evenly matched all over; their meeting in October proved that. Ultimately, a couple of factors push us toward Ohio State. First, we expect the Buckeyes, thanks mainly to their run defense, to win the ground battle in this game. And that’s usually a good start toward victory. Also, if not for turnovers, Ohio State probably would have won that meeting back in October. Also, we’re thinking that playing last week might keep the Buckeyes a little fresher. How many times have we seen a team coming off byes come out a bit flat? This game should be another dandy, and we’ll take Ohio State to come out on top this time.
 

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