Ohio State Buckeyes at Purdue Boilermakers Pick ATS

Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) at Purdue Boilermakers (2-4, 2-4), 10/14/23

When: Noon ET, Saturday, Oct. 14

Where: Ross-Ade Stadium

TV: Peacock

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Ohio St -19.5 / Purdue +19.5 (Make OSU at +0.5 underdog by inserting them into a massive 20 point teaser found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Money line: Ohio St -1600 / Purdue +880

Over/under: 49

Ohio State runs into one of the few Big 10 teams to give it any trouble over recent seasons when it visits Purdue Saturday afternoon in West Lafayette. The Buckeyes are chasing not just a conference championship but perhaps a return to the College Football Playoff. The Boilermakers, meanwhile, are going through the growing pains under a new coaching regime.

How are we playing this game with our free college football betting pick?

NCAAF Betting Odds

The Week 7 college football betting market opened Ohio State as a 20-point road favorite over Purdue, with an over/under of right around 51. Early betting action then dipped both that spread to 19.5 at that total to 49.

Ohio State Betting Preview

The Buckeyes are 5-0 on the season and 2-0 in Big 10 play after rallying to beat Maryland last Saturday 37-17. Ohio State, favored by 17 points, fell down to the Terrapins 10-0 early and still trailed 17-10 well into the third quarter. But Ohio State scored the last 27 points of the game, including a field goal with two minutes left, for the win and the money.

The Buckeyes out-gained the Terps 382-302, even though they managed just 62 yards on the ground.

Two games ago, Ohio State won at Notre Dame 17-14 on a touchdown with one second left. Three games ago, the Buckeyes beat Western Kentucky 63-10 and covered at -30.

Ohio State returned 14 starters this season but had to replace its starting quarterback. So far this season, the Buckeyes’ offense is producing about 60 yards per game less than last year.

Purdue Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Boilermakers are trying to bounce back this week after taking a tough 20-14 loss at Iowa last Saturday. Purdue gave up the first 10 points of the game but pulled to within 10-7 at the half. The Boilers later trailed 20-7, got back to within one score with three minutes left, and got the ball back but couldn’t make a first down.

Purdue actually out-gained the Hawkeyes 343-291, and 67 of the yards the Boilers’ defense allowed came on one play. But Purdue also gave up 181 yards on the ground and turned the ball three times, in one way or another, in Iowa territory.

Two games ago, the Boilers beat Illinois 44-19. Three games ago, they lost to Wisconsin 38-17, although they out-gained the Badgers 396-388.

Purdue only returned 11 starters this season, its first under Coach Walters. So this team is still probably going through the learning curve with the new systems.

On the injury front, Ohio State RB Treveyon Henderson missed last week’s game but is listed as probable for Saturday.

Ohio State-Purdue Recent History

The Boilermakers are one of the few Big 10 teams to give the Buckeyes problems over recent seasons, winning three of the last eight meetings SU, going 5-4 ATS over the last nine. Most recently, though, two seasons ago, Ohio State won in Columbus 59-31 and covered at -19.

College Football Betting Trends

Ohio State is 1-6-1 ATS its last eight games as a road favorite.

Totals Report

The unders are 4-1 in Buckeyes games this season, which are averaging 45 total points.

The totals are split 3-3 in Boilermakers games, which are averaging 54 points.

Free College Football Betting Pick

Ohio State’s just the better team in this match-up all over the field and will win this game. Plus, it appears they’ll get Henderson back. Also, playing on the road means the spread is a little more amenable. We’re betting the Buckeyes, minus the points.