Big Ten Best Bet: Ohio State at Penn State

Teams: Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) at Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS)

Date: Saturday, November 2, 2024

Time: Noon ET

Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA

TV: Fox

Betting Odds

• Point Spread: Ohio State -3.5 / Penn State +3.5
• Moneyline: Ohio State -180 / Penn State +150
• Over/Under: 45

Game Overview

It’s the latest in the series of showdowns that will help decide the Big 10 champion and perhaps spots in the College Football Playoff when Ohio State plays Penn State Saturday afternoon at Happy Valley.

The Nittany Lions stand as one of the last eight undefeated teams in college football this season, as they chase their first appearance in the CFP.

The Buckeyes, meanwhile, own only one loss, by one point at No. 1 Oregon.

One key injury hangs over this game as Penn State wonders if it will have its starting quarterback on Saturday.

The Line

The CFB Week 10 betting market opened Ohio State at -3.5 for Saturday, with an O/U of right around 48. Early betting action slashed that total of three points to 45.

According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings (Sagarin.com), the line on this game should be a pick ‘em. But that doesn’t take into account the Lions QB situation.

Ohio State Betting Preview

The Buckeyes are 6-1 on the season after holding off Nebraska last Saturday 21-17. Ohio State led that game 14-3 late into the second quarter, then fell behind 17-14 early in the fourth. The Buckeyes then immediately drove 75 yards to the go-ahead touchdown and held on from there.

But OSU never came close to covering the spread at -25.

Ohio State out-gained the Cornhuskers but only 285-273. The Buckeyes also only ran the ball for 64 yards and lost time of possession 35:25. So a case could be made that Ohio State actually got out-played by a Nebraska team that lost to Indiana two weeks ago 56-7.

The Buckeyes started 5-0 this season, with convincing victories over Michigan State and Iowa. Ohio State then lost to Oregon 32-31 on a field goal in the last two minutes. OSU racked up 467 yards of total offense that day but gave up 496 yards of Ducks offense.

At 6-1 overall, Ohio State must go 5-0 from here on out to play over its season wins O/U, which was 10.5. And at 3-1 in conference play, the Buckeyes trail Indiana and Oregon by a game and a half in the battle for spots in the Big 10 championship game.

Penn State Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions remained perfect during the season by winning at Wisconsin last Saturday, 28-13. Penn State trailed the Badgers 10-7 at the half but used a gift pick-6 to take the lead early in the third quarter and pulled away with two scores in the fourth.

The Lions also covered at -6.5.

Penn State out-gained Wisconsin 419-298, out-rushed the Badgers 173-81, and won TOP 35:25.

Two games ago, the Lions won a wild one out at USC 33-30 in overtime. Three games ago, Penn State beat UCLA 27-11.

At 7-0 overall, the Nittany Lions need three wins over their last five games to play over their O/U of 9.5. And at 4-0 in conference play, Penn State trails the Ducks and Hoosiers by a half-game in that battle for the top two spots in the Big Ten standings.

On the injury front, Penn State QB Drew Allar hurt a knee last week and missed the second half. He’s listed as questionable for Saturday.

Ohio State-Penn State Recent History

The Buckeyes own a seven-game winning streak on the Lions, but they’re only 2-5 ATS over that run, favored by too much too often. Last year, though, Ohio State beat Penn State at the Horseshoe 20-12 and covered at -4.

By the Numbers

Ohio State is averaging 472 YPG on offense this season and 188 on the ground. Defensively, the Buckeyes are holding opponents to 254 YPG, with just 91 on the ground. This while playing what Sagarin ranks as the 52nd-toughest schedule in college football.

Penn State averages 464 YPG on offense, 197 rushing, and holds foes to 267 YPG, 93 rushing. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 43 schedule.

Totals Report

The Over is 4-3 in Buckeyes games this season, which are averaging 52 total points.

The Under is 5-2 in Lions games, which are averaging 48 points.

The Under is 5-1 over the last six meetings between these teams, in part because of some high totals.

Free College Football Pick

As of this writing, Penn State QB Allar was still questionable, but back-up Beau Pribula looked good in relief last week and comes highly regarded. So perhaps the Lions won’t suffer too much of a drop from that position. From there, we see these teams as very equal; Penn State probably owns the better running game, but Ohio State probably owns the better defense. These teams played a tough, low-scoring game last season, and we won’t be surprised if Saturday’s game plays out along similar lines. And if that’s the case, we like three and a hook in our pocket. We’ll take the Lions.

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