Ohio State at Oregon Betting Analysis & Free Pick | October 12, 2024

Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (5-0 SU, 1-4 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 7

Date/Time: Saturday, October 12, 2024 at 7:30PM EDT

Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene Stadium

TV: NBC

The Ohio State Buckeyes come to Eugene for a Big Ten Conference showdown with the Oregon Ducks on Saturday. A matchup you might not ever see or would need to wait until later in the season is now coming in midseason, with a game of truly titanic ramifications on Saturday with these undefeated national powers. Ohio State is ranked second, and Oregon is ranked third. With the expanded CFP format, the winner of this game will have a pretty big nugget of which to boast come selection-time. On Saturday, Oregon won their second Big Ten Conference game with a 31-10 win over Michigan State. Eased into this new conference schedule, the Ducks are again in their home digs this week with the 5-0 Buckeyes in town, fresh off their 35-7 win over Iowa. Who should we get behind this week?

Major Points to Consider

This is a very difficult spot for Oregon. Reshuffled into the Big Ten with the collapse of the Pac-12, they’d normally be facing a far easier opponent this week. But with this being on the road for the Buckeyes, the same can be said for them, in addition to a road-trip far beyond anything they’d be seeing in their more standard conference schedule. These teams have played three times since 1987 and a lot of the Ohio State roster hasn’t gotten close to this field. On geography and unfamiliarity alone, Ohio State is up against it this week.

Despite being 5-0, Oregon is just 1-4 against the spread, with some slight difficulty in their win over Idaho, followed by a struggle in a win over dangerous Boise State. They beat old conference rivals Oregon State and UCLA with relative ease, before beating Michigan State last week by a similar margin Ohio State beat them. So, other than not really delivering well at the betting window so far in 2024, Dan Lanning’s squad has, in many ways, picked up right where it left off. If anything, Oregon would appear to be slightly more battle-tempered with how they’ve opened the season, as Ohio State has been put in nothing resembling a demanding spot this season thus far.

Challenges for Oregon on Saturday

The Ohio State “D” will need to travel this week in a big way in this foreign locale against an offense that can still get you in a variety of ways. However, this Ohio State defense can disrupt a game in a major way. This is one week where it will be something they may need, as the Buckeyes can really swarm after opposing quarterbacks, make big plays, and get the ball back for their offense to do their thing. Granted, some of the iffy quality of their early opponents plays into this, but they’ve still had two conference games, allowing a total of 34 points in 5 games. Almost all of those points were in garbage time when urgency wasn’t even required. Hats off to Oklahoma transfer QB Dillon Gabriel and how he has kept this Oregon train steaming ahead. They can still run the heck out of the ball in spots with Jordan James, and Tez Johnson has become Gabriel’s favorite target with 43 catches. But maybe opening their maiden voyage into Big Ten play against UCLA and Michigan State hasn’t really prepared the Ducks for what Big Ten Conference defense can be at its highest levels.

The same can be said for the other side of the ball for the Ducks. QB Will Howard and this Ohio State offense are dynamic. The run game can get you a variety of ways, with Howard even pitching in. Between him and backs Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson, and even James Peoples, it’s not an easy aspect of their offense to contain. And with Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, they have two more high-end receivers with which they can flaunt. Oregon is off to a nice start in conference, allowing 23 total points in their first two contests. However, watching them in recent seasons, one is accustomed to this part of their team being the undoing, or at least what keeps them from reaching the real top slots nationally. The same group that gave up 34 to Boise could be in deep trouble here against an offense putting up as many points as Ohio State typically does. Again, the Ducks have been mostly pretty stout this season, in addition to having a flair for the big play here and there. They’re going to need it this week.

What to Expect

Oregon has some talent on defense and could hang in there, though we’ll see how well their defense does with certain aspects, such as covering Buckeyes’ WR Jeremiah Smith. Howard has a lot upon which he can lean with his two stud backs. For Oregon, Gabriel will need to take a bigger role with less variety around him in terms of game-changing talent. Still, Ohio State is in a unique position for them with an opponent that can actually somewhat match up with them in terms of offensive firepower with Gabriel and all his weaponry. It’s just that over time in this game, Ohio State’s edge along both lines of scrimmage could begin to pay off. That defensive line is collectively a nightmare for this Oregon offensive line. And it doesn’t get much easier dealing with the line of the opposite side of the ball.

Lay the Number

This is as difficult as it gets, and when it’s all said and done, this easily could be one of the biggest wins of the regular season for the victor. I think this could be close for a while before it starts to show that the Buckeyes are just a little more-complete and thorough on both sides of the ball and, especially along both lines. I see them overcoming the Oregon firepower as the game carries on, with them getting to the finish-line a nose ahead. I’ll take the Buckeyes.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus 3 points.

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