Ohio Bobcats vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Predictions & Pick ATS

Ohio Bobcats (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

College Football Week 1

Date and Time: Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 7PM EDT

Where: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California

TV: FS1

Point Spread: OHIO +3/SDSU -3 (Bovada)

Over/Under Total: 49.5

The Ohio Bobcats come to Snapdragon Stadium on Saturday to take on the San Diego State Aztecs. It’s a fun “week zero” matchup between the Mountain West’s Aztecs and the incoming Bobcats from the MAC. Ohio had a nice season in 2022, going 10-4 and winning the Arizona Bowl. The Aztecs struggled to a 7-6 mark, once again finding it hard to move the ball and not thriving in some of the close games they will naturally have with a talented “D” and a pedestrian offense. Still, coming from the better conference and with the Bobcats facing a daunting road task, SDSU enters this one as a small favorite.

Uphill Battle for Ohio?

It’s a step up for the Bobcats. Not that the MWC is a terror, but they will be facing one of the better rosters from that conference, with a heavy concentration of talent being on the defensive side of the ball. When high-scoring teams like Ohio step up and face a defense-heavy team like this, the recipe for success can fall a bit flat. Let’s not also forget the heat that late August can bring to San Diego, and these boys from Athens, Ohio, might be dealing with some adverse conditions on top of the sweltering defense the Aztecs might bring. Still, after a tough campaign in his first season at the helm, head coach Tim Albin has gotten this Ohio bunch in fine working order fairly quickly.

Last season, we saw Ohio quarterback Kurtis Roarke take a big step forward as the field general, throwing for 3257 yards, 25 TDs, and just four picks before getting hurt. We saw a lot of players congeal around the peaking play of Roarke, who will be taking a snap for the fifth straight season for this program when he hits the field in this game. We also saw a defense start the year getting hammered in 2022, eventually righting the ship and not giving up over 27 points in their last nine games after allowing 178 in their first four contests. Still, we’ve become conditioned over the years to take semi-promising defensive MAC results with a grain of salt.

Moving Pieces for San Diego State

The offseason wasn’t particularly kind for the Aztecs, who start 2023 without their left tackle, center, starting running back, and their top two receivers. They will return senior quarterback Jalen Mayden, but he has yet to really distinguish himself during what is really a tough mini-era for this SDSU offense. Brady Hoke returns for a fourth season in his second run as the Aztecs’ head coach. It all peaked with a 12-win campaign in 2021, but last season was mostly just depressing. The offense seemed stuck in the mud, and even their heralded defense seemed to disappear against any offenses who had their act together. Against the better opponents they faced, they never really got the job done in 2022. And for the most part, it wasn’t even close.

One can see the picture isn’t so rosy for the Aztecs, despite this seeming like a workable spot on paper. They’re facing an Ohio team that is on the rise and is returning the vast majority of what they had last season when they upgraded their team substantially. The Aztecs, meanwhile, have lost a lot of pieces it seems they can ill afford to lose. Their offense has been in the dumper for a few seasons, and their former calling card in their defense faces a lot of questions with all the departures. In this spot, they will be facing a good QB in Roarke (when healthy) and a peaking squad of players who would love to start the season with a tough road win out of conference.

Questions

While last season saw the Bobcats step up, they had to do it in part without Roarke, who suffered a season-ending knee injury. Word is he’ll be ready for this game, but as of press time, there is no confirmation that he’s 100%. He’s a big part of this equation, and an underdog position on Ohio obviously becomes far less appealing if Roarke is out or limited. With the Aztecs, they have some hope with Mayden, who is the best of a recent uninspiring lot of quarterbacks. You wonder if they can maybe elevate a tick on that side of the ball. I think the bigger question is whether they can continue relying on a defense that doesn’t seem like it’s getting better. And with so few remaining starters on that side of the ball, it’s a legitimate issue they may have to face.

Even with the Aztecs in some of the worst offensive form in recent history, are they maybe good enough to take it to an Ohio pass defense that can be exceptionally leaky? Their receiver talent is largely unproven, but this is as good a spot to hit the ground running as one can find. Maybe they can run this Ohio defense a little ragged in the heat. I think the best-case scenario for prospective Aztecs backers is to catch an iffy Ohio “D” in ragged early-season form. In that case, even if the Aztecs offense again proves to not be up-to-snuff, they should still do damage in this spot.

Take the Points

As of press time, there is nothing overly concrete on the status of Roarke. If he’s a go, I think the Ohio offense will be the most compelling part of this game. Getting points. That’s a nice feature to have. However, one cannot forget that this is a tough road spot for Ohio, and if that defense isn’t ready to hit the ground running, something we’ve seen in recent seasons with this Bobcats’ unit, it could be a long day. I still think the Bobcats give the Aztecs a run for their money. I’ll take Ohio.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Ohio Bobcats plus 3 points.

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