Ohio Bobcats vs. Ball State Cardinals Analysis & Pick 11/15/22

Ohio Bobcats (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. Ball State Cardinals (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS)

When: Tuesday, November 15, 7 p.m.

Where: Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, Ind.

TV: ESPN2

Point Spread: OHIO -3.5/BALL +3.5 (BAS – Why bet on games at -110 odds when you could be laying only -105? Makes no sense!)

Total: O/U 52.5

Outlook

Whether this game really matters to Ohio or not doesn’t actually depend on what the Bobcats do in this situation. This game’s meaning has more to do with Bowling Green and its matchup with Toledo. If the Falcons lose as expected, Ohio can win the division by beating Ball State, as they’d hold the tiebreaker over Buffalo and couldn’t have any other school brought into the tiebreaker. If Bowling Green upsets Toledo, a loss here really doesn’t hurt the Bobcats, as they’d simply have to beat Bowling Green next week to win the MAC East and would be in a tight spot should they lose that game. But given that Bowling Green goes in as a two-touchdown underdog to Toledo, Ohio’s likely coming in thinking that a win here means a trip to Detroit.

Ball State is in a tight spot, as the Cardinals can no longer make it to the MAC title game. But the problem goes beyond that, as it’s no longer a sure thing as to whether the Cardinals will play in the postseason. Ball State has to find one more win, but it’s either got to beat the league’s best team in Ohio or win on the road at Miami-Ohio. The Cardinals have never played in three consecutive bowls, and making history is well within their grasp if they can find another victory. But with the Bobcats not lacking in motivation, this might be a tough ask for the Cardinals, even on their Senior Night.

How the Public is Betting the Ohio/Ball State Game

Ohio is getting most of the tickets from the public. Ball State is getting most of the money from the professionals. The Bobcats have seen 68% of the tickets come in on them, but the line has fallen from -4 to -3.5. The total has ticked down from 53 to 52.5.

Injury Concerns

Ohio:

Running back O’Shaan Allison (shoulder) is out.

Ball State:

Linebacker Brandon Martin (leg) is out.

When Ohio Has the Ball

Every Ohio offensive preview has started the same way: Do not let Sam Wiglusz beat you. The Ohio receiver has played outstanding in MAC play, catching six touchdowns in his past five games. Miami-Ohio took that advice to heart and made certain that no matter what, Wiglusz wasn’t going to beat them. Wiglusz only managed four receiving yards last week, but that only opened the door for the rest of the Bobcats’ weapons to destroy the RedHawks, as Miles Cross and James Bostic combined for 216 receiving yards Sieh Bangura rushed for 145 yards to lead the Bobcats to an easy win.

And that makes this a difficult question: how exactly do you stop this Ohio offense? Going hard on Wiglusz didn’t work for Miami, and Ball State certainly doesn’t have the run defense to keep Ohio from pounding the ball on the ground. Expect the Cardinals to follow a modified version of Miami’s strategy, focusing on Wiglusz and Cross and Bostic and hoping to make the Bobcats grind out their scoring drives.

When Ball State Has the Ball

This has to be John Paddock’s game. If it’s not, it’s hard to see how Ball State can match Ohio because the way that you beat the Bobcats is by throwing the football. Carson Steele should be able to get his yards because he’s one of the best backs in the MAC, but Ohio’s run defense is a lot tougher to deal with than its passing defense. Over Ohio’s past four games, only Northern Illinois managed to top 3.5 yards per carry, and that was because the Huskies had zero passing threat and had no choice but to run the ball.

But passing on the Bobcats is another story. In their past five games, only Northern Illinois (again, no passing threat) failed to top 200 passing yards, with Akron going for 418 yards through the air. But Paddock did next to nothing in the air against Toledo, tossing for just 94 yards and an interception. His play over the past four games hasn’t been great, as he’s tossed for just four touchdowns against six interceptions. Opportunities will be there to try to exploit holes in the defense, but Paddock’s tendency to turn the ball over says that this might not work all that well for Ball State.

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Betting Trends

Ohio has played its best football as of late, covering in all six of its conference games in 2022. The Bobcats have been overlooked all season in large part because of their defense just isn’t up to par, which leads Ohio to play a fair amount of overs. In ten games, the Bobcats have played to the over seven times, including each of the past two weeks.

But Ball State is the antithesis of this. The Cardinals have played to the under in five straight games and seven of eight, with only their comeback against Northern Illinois hitting the number. Ball Stae hasn’t topped 28 points in any of its past five games, and its opponents haven’t either. Something has to give here.

Weather Report

MACtion means exposure, but these teams might regret playing Tuesday night in Muncie. At kickoff, the temperature is supposed to fall to 37 degrees, and that means a likely wintry mix, with both snow and freezing rain possible. This could be a tough night for the offense, as traction could be an issue.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

If Ohio was all pass and no run, I’d like the Cardinals to hang around because of the weather. But the Bobcats can do either, and Ball State’s already suspect passing attack will have a hard time handling these wintry conditions. The Cardinals might have their backs to the wall, but the Bobcats have more to play for here. Give me Ohio. Bet your Week 12 college football picks for FREE by scoring a 125% real cash bonus up to $400 AND get a free half point everytime you bet your favorite teams at GTBets Sportsbook!