Notre Dame vs. USC: Spread Pick and Analysis

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) vs. USC Trojans (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 14
Date/Time: Saturday, November 30, 2024, at 3:30 PM EST
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
TV: CBS

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the USC Trojans at the L.A. Coliseum on Saturday. It’s the final regular season game for each team. For the Irish, it’s a chance to add another notch to a big season that will culminate in a College Football Playoff berth, barring any slipups this week. But while this transition season for the Trojans has been challenging, they enter this with some decent momentum and are playing at home. On Saturday, the Trojans won in another rivalry spot, beating UCLA 19-13. The Fighting Irish, meanwhile, battered Army, 49-14, on Saturday, their 9th straight win since that bizarre loss to NIU in week two. Who should we get behind in this one?

Setting the Table

This annual matchup has stood the test of time and lives on even with USC joining the Big Ten this season. Despite some decent USC teams in recent years, they’ve managed only one win in this matchup out of the last 6 times these teams have played, including last season’s 48-20 loss. Those were some Trojans teams that really petered out at the end of the season, with this season’s team reversing form. After a 2-0 start, they dropped 4 of 5, but three wins in their last four games have restored order, and this would be a nice way to close things out should they get a win.

As we see, it won’t be easy, with Notre Dame not only rising from the ashes with a big string of wins, with multiple wipeouts of ranked opponents, but also delivering as a betting option with seven straight covers. The point-totals have been enormous, with an offense that is hammering away at opponents and a “D” that has allowed between 3 and 16 points in all but one game, that being in a win against Louisville when the Cardinals scored 24 points. They’re a pretty dangerous team heading into the CFP.

Promise for USC?

Not that this alone is going to get them over the hump against a top-five team, but the Trojans have been at home for the better part of a month. The Irish have been operating out of their home grounds in Indiana, with road spots in more eastern parts of the country. This is the most out-of-the-way road game they get all year. There is no pressure this week on a Trojans’ team who long ago knew that just becoming bowl-eligible was their ceiling this year, and in these annual rivalry-type games, you’re more likely to see a team rise to the role of spoiler.

The Trojans got another big 4th quarter last week against the Bruins. They’ve found a little more life or at the very least some late-game grit since seeing Jayden Maiava take over behind center, the former UNLV starter getting his first real run a few weeks ago after the loss to Washington, with last week being his second straight win since coming in to start. We also see a reversal in form with a Trojans’ defense that in recent years has faded badly late in the season. While far from iron-clad, they’ve been a big part of the little mini-surge Southern Cal has gotten on recently, showing far more overall resistance while also chipping in with some big plays to help with the cause.

But Not so Fast…

Beating Rutgers, Nebraska, and UCLA is nice and shows the Trojans aren’t dying at the finish line, but there’s certainly a chance that Maiava and other key pieces of the USC offense like RB Woody Marks hit a wall this week. The Notre Dame defense has been ultra-consistent, delivering in every spot, with opposing offenses scratching and clawing most weeks to climb back into games. This Irish defensive line has a lot of different guys to contain, and they can all get to the quarterback. This defense has scored several times this season and has 26 turnovers in the event that Maiava gets his cage rattled a bit and becomes errant, which can happen. This USC offensive line will get pushed to a greater extent than what they are accustomed to.

That goes for a USC defense that might be in a lot better shape than we’ve seen the last few seasons but is far from being above reproach. Now you have dual-threat QB Riley Leonard, with his 14 TDs through the air and another 13 on the ground, coming into town with all his weapons. They run the heck out of the ball with Leonard, along with backs Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love, while Leonard dishes out to a cavalry of targets, with eight guys in triple-digits yards receiving. They can do a little bit of everything.

Lay the Points

Usually, with the Trojans, their offense is their saving grace, but I think this is a spot where we might see a muted showing from Maiava, Marks, and a pass-catching crew that has yet to see some stars separate from the pack. Against a Fighting Irish team that never seems to come down from this near season-long crescendo, I sense the Trojans come down to earth some this week. While they’ve been respectable, and how bad their season has been is something that’s been a bit overstated, I feel the Irish can get some distance from the Trojans and cross the wire with the win and cover on Saturday.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus 7.5 points.

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