Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Point Spread Bet

 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2023 10-3 SU, 9-3-1 ATS) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (2023 7-6 SU, 5-6-2 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, August 31st, 7:30 PM

Where: Kyle Field, College Station, TX

TV: ABC

Point Spread: ND +3 / TX AM -3 (Make the line +23 or -17 by inserting this game into a 20-point college football teaser found only at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Over/Under Total: 46.5

The first full weekend of college football is finally upon us, and one of the marquee matchups to start the season off has Texas A&M hosting Notre Dame for a primetime opener at Kyle Field. This will be the first-ever meeting between the two teams and an enormous springboard to a hopeful BCS playoff run for whoever comes out with the victory.

JUMBO JIMBO BUYOUT

Texas A&M hired Mike Elko as their new head coach in the offseason after having to spend over 70 million dollars to get Jimbo Fisher off their sidelines and inject new life into the Aggie football program.  Elko knows the College Station system well, having previously been a defensive coordinator there, and more importantly, knows the current Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard well after having been his head coach at Duke for the previous two seasons.

CONNOR ROLL

One of the biggest deciding factors for the success of the Aggies 2024 season is the health of starting quarterback Connor Weigman, who was lost a year ago due an injury suffered in late September.  In a small sample size over two seasons as the Aggies quarterback, Weigman has done well protecting the ball, throwing only two interceptions compared to sixteen touchdowns while increasing his completion percentage from 55 to 69% from one year to the next.  He will hope for improvement from a Texas A&M offensive line that has struggled in multiple areas over the last couple of years and will have the added pressure of going up against an Al Groh-coached Irish defense that finished in the top seven in both scoring and yards allowed a season ago. Notre Dame also returns one of their best players up front in tackle Howard Cross.

OUT OF REUBEN

 
The Aggies backfield took a big hit before the season even began when they lost expected starter at running back Reuben Owens for the season due to a foot injury.  All hope is not lost, though, as they will now likely rely heavily on the previous productive duo of Le’Veon Moss and Amaria Daniels, both of whom averaged over 5.0 yards per carry a season ago while also scoring at least five touchdowns apiece.  The offense will need both to maintain that level of success despite the previously mentioned struggling line up front, especially if they want to keep the Irish defense honest and open things up for the passing game.
 

WEIGMAN’S INVENTORY

 
Three returning wide receivers highlight the top targets for the Aggies air attack. Jahdae Walker, Noah Thomas, and Moose Muhammad all have plenty of experience with Weigman and the offensive playbook.  They will face one of their stiffest tests of the year right off the bat against a Notre Dame defensive backfield that includes arguably the best cornerback/safety duo in the country in Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts, and all Aggies fans are hoping that the return of promising tight end Donovan Green from injury will add another viable option to the Texas A&M offensive game plan.
 

FREEMAN ANALYSIS

 
Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman enters a pivotal year three at South Bend that will likely decide the direction of his future.  There is no doubting the quality of Freeman as a person, and that’s without the added benefit of comparing him to the personality embarrassments of their previous sideline leaders in Napoleon-imp Brian Kelly and the belligerent boob that was Charlie Weis.  Freeman does have two bowl wins on his Golden Dome resume, but he has also gone just 19-7 over the past two seasons, which includes four losses as a favorite, while also finishing both years with a lower ranking than in which they began.  This should be the season that he really starts to see the improvement he brought to the recruiting game pay off, though whether or not he can turn that into the results in the standings is the biggest question he faces.
 

WILEY RILEY

 
The quarterback position has a new face in South Bend, with former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard transferring over in the offseason.  He isn’t the only new addition to the offense and will certainly benefit from another major addition in coordinator Mike Denbrock, who last season helped catapult Jayden Daniels at LSU into a top pick in the NFL draft.  Much like the Aggies’ Connor Weigman, Leonard has the ability to make plays both on the ground and through the air, but unfortunately for Irish fans, he also has the same similarity in that he is a major injury concern.  The worry only deepened in the summer when Notre Dame lost expected starter at left tackle Charles Jagusah to a pectoral injury, which is especially concerning considering the usually strong Irish offensive line was already expected to be at its weakest level in years for the 2024 season.  Not an especially ideal situation to be in going into week up against a Texas A&M defense that’s clear strength is its defensive line, thanks in large part to a major boost they got in the offseason with the addition of last year’s Big 10 leader in sacks, defensive end Nic Sourton.  That, along with the previous history between Mike Elko and Riley Leonard, with both knowing each other’s strengths and weaknesses having coached/practiced each other a season, is definitely another variable the quarterback will be faced with in his first game in an Irish uniform. 
 
 

PRICE OF LOVE

 
Notre Dame’s clear focal point in the backfield last season was Audric Estime, and now that the former star is off to the NFL, the Irish are expected to go with the sophomore pair of Jadarian Price and Jeremiah Love with fellow classman Gi’Brian Payne an experience backup as well.  Love was given more opportunities than either a season ago, but it was Price who shined in their bowl win against Oregon State and should see additional time on the field as an effective return man as well.  One prop bet that could be worth looking into for Saturday would be Notre Dame scoring on a kick or punt return, with Love, Price, and wide receivers Jayden Harrison and Jordan Faison all threats to score every time they touch the football and Texas A&M having issues over the last couple of years with a variety of special teams/ issues.

LEONARD’S LIST

 
Riley Leonard has plenty of targets to choose from in the passing game, with some faces familiar to South Bend and others joining via the transfer portal.  Receivers Jordan Faison, Jaden Greathouse and Jayden Thomas are all back from a season ago while Kris Mitchell (FIU), Jayden Harrison (Marshall) and Beaux Collins (Clemson) the major additions through the portal.  One of the bigger boosts to the arsenal is the expected return of tight end Mitchell Evans, who was questionable to begin the season due to injury but is now listed as the starter on the depth chart for Saturday.  The ability of all to get space in the passing game will be crucial to giving Riley Leonard and the Irish offense the open field needed to take true advantage of Leonard’s dual-threat ability.
 

TRENDS and BREAKDOWN

 
Texas A&M has clearly played better in front of the raucous crowd at Kyle Field in recent history, having gone 32-8 straight up over the last six years while also going 19-13 in their as a home favorite in that same time span (a stark comparison to their 1-10 road record over the last three seasons).  They have also played up to the oddsmakers’ potential, having just one victory in the ten games that saw them as an underdog in the past two years.  
 
The clear path to victory of late for the Irish has been to get points on the board, as they are 64-3 in their last 67 games when scoring over 20 points and 0-7 in their last seven when scoring under 21. Their inability to win against top tier opponents has also shown, with just three wins in their last 25 games against teams in the top 6, but with their beneficial schedule in 2024 that likely won’t matter until they get to the BCS playoffs.  What does is their 15-1 record in their last 16 games against teams ranked 10th through 25th.
 
This wasn’t the easiest matchup to pick, with Texas A&M having a clear home-field advantage, but the Irish have shown they can do well away from South Bend, having gone 16-6-2 on the road over the last five years while also proving they can stay with the tougher opponents, posting a 4-1 record in their last five against the spread as a road dog with two outright victories.  The Aggies though have struggled in more even matchups, having just one win in their last eleven games with a spread of three or less.
 
I am taking the Irish this week not because of the trends but more because I believe their talent outweighs the 12th Man advantage of Texas A&M at Kyle Field.  If Notre Dame wins this week they will be favored in every game the remainder of their season with a clear path to the BCS Playoffs, and I believe their march begins with an upset victory Saturday night on the road in College Station against the Aggies.
 

Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame +3