Notre Dame vs. Purdue Predictions & Picks

 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, September 14th, 3:30 PM
Where: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point Spread: ND -10/ PUR +10
Over/Under Total: 45.5

Did you know… that you could be betting on games at -105 odds instead of -110? Imagine how much money you’d have saved over the past handful of years! Tons! Bet smarter! Make the switch to reduced juice sports betting today!

Fresh off a humiliating loss to Northern Illinois, the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame head to West Lafayette to take on the Purdue Boilermakers in a battle of two of the four FBS college football teams from the Hoosier state.  This will be the 88th all-time meeting between the two programs with Notre Dame holding a 59-26-2 advantage that includes a current six game winning streak in the series.

BLAME GAME

There is plenty of responsibility for Notre Dames disastrous performance a week ago, but the biggest blame arrows are undoubtedly pointed at head coach Marcus Freeman and quarterback Riley Leonard.  For Freeman, it could (and likely should) be the beginning of the end for his tenure as the head coach in South Bend.  His personality and character are unquestioned, but so are the lack of results as he now sits with just a 20-8 record at Notre Dame with five of those eight losses in games that they were favored to win.  The embarrassment against the Huskies was also the third defeat they have suffered under Freeman in which the Irish were favored by at least fourteen points, and all three were made that much more painful having taken place on their home field. Its bad enough to consistently disappear in games against top-tier competition, but the Notre Dame football program will certainly never be able to reach their previous highs if they cant at least take care of business against the cupcakes of college football.  Or find a real quarterback.

LEONARD THE TIMID KITTEN

Mike Denbrock was hired as the offensive coordinator in South Bend in the offseason after having helped elevate Jayden Daniels at LSU into a top-two pick in the NFL Draft.  The problem is the current Irish quarterback Riley Leonard is lacking in the talent, character, toughness, leadership and overall ability departments that made Daniels a star.  His whiny demeanor in the huddle after taking any sort of hit was bad enough but it was his disastrous interception into triple coverage when the Irish should have been running out the clock late in the 4th quarter essentially gave away the game to Northern Illinois.  There is no doubt that Leonards offensive line has struggled during the season, but that can only go so far in explaining how ineffective he has been in the passing game.  And its not like this is only something that began at Notre Dame, as going back to his Duke career, Leonard has just three touchdown passes in his last ten games overall.  With NIL money now available and the coffers certainly full at South Bend, there is now zero excuse as to why Notre Dame cannot find a suitable quarterback to lead their team.  If Leonard continues to be ineffective, such as his 5.2 yards per passing attempt, which ranks 124th in college football, there is no reason why Marcus Freeman shouldnt look to his bench.  There are definitely options there, whether it be to give freshman CJ Carr a chance or more experienced backup Steve Angeli, who had three touchdown passes in the Irish Sun Bowl win against Oregon State after he took over for Sam Hartman when the previous starter left early to prepare for his career as an NFL practice squad player.

WHERES THE LOVE

If the Irish want to get their season back on track against Purdue, their best bet would be to rely more on Jeremiyah Love and the rushing attack.  The fact that they called a passing play on second and one late in the 4thquarter was inexcusable, especially for a staff that has seen Riley Leonard in practice and knows full well his limitations as a passer (there is a reason he hasnt thrown for over 250 yards in a game since 2022).  Love on the other hand has built off his breakout performance in last years bowl game by averaging over 6 yards per carry while scoring in both games so far in 2024.  The Boilermakers arent expected to have a dominant defense this year but did finish in the top 50 against the rush last year and also get back the Big-10 returning leader in sacks and tackles for loss with Kydran Jenkins.  Even so, with Jermiyah Love as the focal point and Jadarian Price a very capable backup, Notre Dame should be able to count on their running game to lay the groundwork for a successful offensive attack on Saturday and hopefully give the passing game the extra space needed to get things corrected.

SCORING DROUGHT

Averaging just 160 yards per game through the air over their first two matchups, the Irish passing offense will have to elevate its play if they want to have any chance of salvaging their season.  Clemson transfer Beaux Collins has been the leader amongst the receivers in catches and yards with Jaden Greathouse a close second, but unfortunately for the latter he will need to shake from his memory the brutal, momentum changing drop he had a week ago against UNI that would have made it an entirely different ball game.  Injuries have played a part as well, with experienced wideout Jordan Faison having been sidelined all year and tight end Mitchell Evans slow to return with knee issues, while the influx of transfers to both the wide receiver and obvious quarterback position with Leonard have provided some acclimation bumps in the road as well.  Purdue free safety Dillon Tiehenman provides a formidable test for the Notre Dame passing game on Saturday after he led the Boilermakers in tackles a season ago while also putting up six interceptions and already having added to his pick list with another in week one against Indiana State.  How they plan around his ball-hawking style and Leonards limitations will go a long way in deciding how successful the Irish offense can be, and that has certainly provided a correlation to their recent game outcomes, as Notre Dame has now lost eight games in a row when scoring less than 21 points while going 65-3 in their last 68 when scoring 21 or more.

BIG-10 BASEMENT 

Purdue comes into the weekend off an oddly placed week two bye after crushing FCS cupcake Indiana State to start the season.  Head coach Ryan Walters has struggled since replacing Jeff Brohn and inheriting a team that was coming off a Big Ten West title, going just 4-8 in his initial year and picked by many to finish at or near the bottom of the conference in 2024.  He has had an extra week to prepare for Notre Dame, but it remains to be seen if the additional time off this early in the year is more detrimental and then beneficial in a transfer laden college football environment where on field reps and real time with new teammates is likely the preferable option.

CARD GAME

The main hope for a Purdue turnaround rests on the arm of quarterback Hudson Card, who certainly started his season off the right way by completing 96% of his passes while throwing four touchdowns and zero interceptions in their lone game so far.  His ability to avoid turnovers has been crucial to his teams success throughout his college career, as he has gone 0-7 in his last seven games when throwing an interception, including an 0-5 record a season ago.  The Irish pass defense was burned by one big play against Northern Illinois but other than that seemed to hold their own, and Card will certainly have his work cut out for him against the Notre Dame duo of cornerback Benjamin Morrison and safety Xavier Watts.  

OPEN TARGETS

Card was able to spread the ball well for the Boilermakers against Indiana State as twelve different players for Purdue ended the game with at least one reception, with many backups able to get playing time in their blowout win.  Things will get a lot more difficult on Saturday, especially with their two best options at receiver entering the season CJ, Smith and Kam Brown, both questionable to play against the Irish due to injury.  Tight end Max Klare will look to continue his strong start to 2024 after being lost in week five a season ago, and if Smith and Brown are unable to suit will also like get a great deal of attention from the Notre Dame pass defense as one of the only experienced options on the field seeing as no returning receiver on the team had over 20 receptions a season ago.

FUMBLE BEE

The Boilermaker backfield is highlighted by Devon Mockobee, who has led the team in rushing yards in each of the last two seasons with fifteen combined touchdowns overall.  When Mockobee has done well, his team does too, with Purdue going 6-0 in games in which the running back averaged five or more yards per carry and also gets into the endzone.  Unfortunately, his fumbling issues a season ago didnt bode very well for the team, coughing up the ball nine times and Purdue posting a 1-6 record in games when that happened.  The Boilermakers have undoubtedly watched plenty of tape of Northern Illinois running back Antario Brown having his way against the Irish defense a week ago, and will hope to use Mockobee to pave the way for a similar upset on Saturday in West Lafayette.

TRENDS and BREAKDOWN

Notre Dame has done well against the spread of late away from home, posting a 17-6-2 record in their last 25 road games and an equally successful mark of 10-4-1 in their previous fifteen games when favored.  The opposite has been true for Purdue, as they are 29-42 straight up in their last 71 home games, which includes a 27-44 record versus the number.  The Boilermakers are even worse when getting points, having just covered in just 12 of their last 39 matchups as home underdog.

Having nothing to do with trends and mostly everything to do with who needs the win more, I am taking Notre Dame to cover the line against Purdue on Saturday.  Marcus Freeman is likely coaching for his Irish career, and the same could soon be said about the starting quarterback job and Riley Leonard.  With the spread dropping due to last weeks disappearing act in South Bend and Purdue looking better than they really are after their easy win against Indiana State, give the points and take the Irish to get a desperately needed win and cover on the road at Ross-Ade Stadium.

Mikes Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -10