Notre Dame vs. Navy Week 9 Predictions: Can the Midshipmen Pull Off the Upset?

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1 SU, ATS 5-2)  vs Navy Midshipmen (6-0 SU, ATS 5-0)

Date: 12:00 EST Saturday, October 26th

Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

TV: ABC

Point Spread: ND -11.5/USNA +11.5 (Make sure you’re betting at the best sportsbooks!)

Money Line: ND -461/Nav  +347

Over/Under: 52

ABC will be handling the television broadcast as Notre Dame and Navy face off at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. Kick-off is set for 12:00 ET, with Notre Dame coming in as the -11.5 point favorite. The over/under line is currently 52 points for this Week 9 non-conference matchup. Notre Dame has a 6-1 record, while Navy is 6-0 on the season. The money line odds are -461 for Notre Dame and +347 for Navy.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Navy Midshipmen did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a record of 3-0. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 79 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 3-0.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Recent Form:

Notre Dame enters Week 9 against Navy with a 6-1 record, ranked 7th in our power rankings. They are a lock for bowl eligibility and have a 55.6% chance of making the playoff. The Fighting Irish are 3-0 on the road and 3-1 at home this season.

Notre Dame’s ATS record stands at 5-2, and they’ve been favored in six of their seven games. Their average scoring margin is +22.7 points per game, and they’ve gone 3-0 against the spread on the road.

This week’s over/under line is set at 52 points. Notre Dame’s average over/under line is 46.4 points, with their over/under record at 3-4 for the season.

Notre Dame’s offense is averaging 34.6 points per game, ranking 24th nationally heading into week 9. They are 32nd in our offensive power rankings. The Irish have relied on their ground game, averaging 210.6 rushing yards per game, placing them 18th in the country.

Jeremiyah Love leads the rushing attack with 462 yards, seven touchdowns, and an average of 6 yards per carry. Quarterback Riley Leonard has thrown for 1,182 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions, posting a passer rating of 89. Notre Dame ranks 97th in passing yards per game.

Notre Dame’s defense has been impressive this season, ranking 5th nationally by allowing just 11.9 points per game. In their recent game against Georgia Tech, they gave up only 13 points and limited the Yellow Jackets to 80 rushing yards on 28 attempts while forcing two interceptions.

Opposing quarterbacks have struggled against Notre Dame, posting a passer rating of just 59.9, the 7th-lowest in the country. The Irish have allowed only 165.9 passing yards per game, ranking 18th, and have held opposing passers to a 49.7% completion rate, the 5th-lowest in college football.

Away Injury Report

Navy Midshipmen Recent Form:

Navy enters Week 9 against Notre Dame with a perfect 6-0 record, and they are projected to be bowl-eligible. They have an 11.5% chance of winning the American Athletic Conference, according to projections. The Midshipmen have gone 3-0 at home and 2-0 on the road this season.

Navy has a 5-0 record against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +25.2 points per game. They are 4-0 ATS as the favorite and have covered in all three home games and both road games.

The over/under line for this week’s game is set at 52 points. Navy’s games have averaged 64.5 points, and their over/under record is 5-0, with their average line at 48.1 points.

Navy’s offense has been impressive this season, ranking 4th in points per game with 44.8 and 6th in our offensive power rankings. They are 7th in rushing, averaging 275.7 yards per game on 45.3 attempts.

Blake Horvath leads the passing game with 888 yards and a passer rating of 140. Navy ranks 2nd nationally in passer rating. Horvath has thrown ten touchdowns with just one interception, completing 63.9% of his passes.

Navy’s defense has been a bright spot this season, ranking 14th nationally by allowing just 19.7 points per game. In their recent game, they forced four interceptions and allowed 17 points despite giving up 363 total yards, including 200 rushing yards on 48 attempts.

Opponents have averaged 166.7 rushing yards per game against Navy, ranking 120th nationally, and 224.7 passing yards. Quarterbacks have completed 55.4% of their passes and have a passer rating of 77.8 when facing Navy’s defense.

Home Injury Report

No Injuries Reported

Betting Trends

• In their last three road games, Notre Dame has averaged 40 points per game while allowing 11. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-0 while going 3-0 vs. the spread.
• Navy has played well in their previous three home games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 28 points per game while allowing 14. The team also performed well vs. the spread at 2-1.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Navy Midshipmen have a straight-up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 1-2.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a straight up record of 8-2 and an ATS mark of 7-3.

Free Pick

Navy is putting their undefeated record on the line on Saturday as they face off against Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium. Despite having yet to lose a game, Navy is +11.5 point underdogs. This will be Navy’s toughest test of the year, especially having to face off against an elite Notre Dame defense. I think Notre Dame is getting too many points here based on their name, and I think the Navy can hang with the Irish. I’m going with Navy at +11.5.

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