Notre Dame vs. Indiana Spread Pick: Betting Preview & Analysis

 Indiana Hoosiers (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS)
Date/Time: Friday, December 20th, 8:00 PM
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
TV: ABC / ESPN

Point Spread: IU +7 / ND -7
Over/Under Total: 51.5

 
The BCS Playoffs begin on Friday with an interstate matchup pitting the Notre Dame Fighting Irish against the Indiana Hoosiers for a primetime showdown in South Bend.  This will be the 30th ever meeting between the teams, with Notre Dame holding a 23-5-1 historical advantage that really doesn’t mean as much considering their last matchup was in 1991, and that was the only time they have played against each other in the last 76 years.
 

BIG ON CIG

 
Another reason why what happened in the football history in Bloomington doesn’t carry as much weight is because of how much of a turnaround the program has seen since the arrival of head coach Curt Cignetti. Coming off of back-to-back wins as Sun Belt coach of the year at James Madison, Cignetti landed at Indiana, and the atmosphere immediately changed around the football team.  It was not just that winning was possible but that it was more so expected, which, to the new coaches’ credit, was especially impressive considering the team had finished with a record over .500 just three times in the previous 29 seasons.  His team, fans, and especially financial backers were rewarded with an 11-1 record, the most wins in school history, while Cignetti himself was rewarded with a conference coach of the year honors for the third straight season along with an 8-year contract extension from Indiana.  His offense struggled in their toughest test against Ohio State and will look to correct those mistakes with a talented Hoosier squad that includes plenty of weapons, all of which are hoping to be part of the group that pulls off the upset and ends the school’s 33-year drought without a postseason win.
 

HOOSAIR

 
The on-field leader of the Indiana offense is quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who transferred to the Hoosiers from the University of Ohio when Cignetti was hired as the new head coach and recruited him to join the reworked roster.  After leading his team on their historic run this season, Rourke was rewarded with 2nd All-Big Ten Honors along with a ninth-place finish in the Heisman Trophy voting, becoming the seventh Hoosier to finish in the top 10 for college football’s most prestigious award and just the second quarterback after Antwaan Randle El in 2001.
 
Rourke’s key to success is efficiency, a stat he ranked 1st in nationally overall with a rating of 181.4.  It’s easy to see how he achieved just a high mark when looking at his numbers for the year, which include a completion percentage over 70, along with 27 touchdown passes compared to only four interceptions.   Unlike his quarterback counterpart across the field Riley Leonard, Rourke was especially efficient when throwing down field, leading the Big Ten in both yards per attempt and yards per catch.
 
Notre Dame will be the toughest unit that he has faced all season, with ball-hawking, 1st Team All-American safety Xavier Watts leading a pass defense that ranks 3rd nationally, and star defensive lineman Howard Cross expected back from injury to further bolster a squad that also ranks 9th in total yards allowed and 3rd in scoring.  Twice previously this season the Irish faced offenses built on efficiently and not turning the ball over (Army and Navy), and both times they came away with easy wins as the opposing teams both crumbled immediately when the fumbles and interceptions began.  Thankfully for Rourke and the Hoosiers though, they have a lot more offensive weapons surrounding the quarterback to rely on.  
 
Wide receiver Elijah Sarratt earned 3rd Team Big Ten honors after leading the Hoosiers in catches (49), yards (890), and touchdown receptions (8) this season and is the clear top option through the air for Kurtis Rourke.  Rounding out the receiving options are wideouts Miles Cross, Myles Price, Omar Cooper, and Ke’Shawn Williams, along with tight end Zach Horton, all of whom caught at least 20 passes on the season and scored multiple touchdowns.  

LAW & JUSTICE

 
Rourke and Sarratt have gotten the most attention and fanfare regarding the Indiana offense this season, but their dual-headed backfield can certainly not be ignored on Friday with two very productive backs that have a knack for finding the endzone awaiting the Notre Dame defense.  Justice Ellison and Tyson Lawton have combined for over 1400 yards rushing, with each posting double-digit touchdown totals on the year.  Ellison, at one point, scored in seven straight matchups but has gotten into the endzone just once in the past four games, while Lawton has had better luck of late with three rushing scores in his previous four matchups.  Statistically speaking, the matchup between the Indiana running game versus the Notre Dame passing defense couldn’t be more even, with both ranking 51st nationally, and how much success the Hoosier duo is able to find would help substantially in not only controlling the clock but also opening things up for Rourke and the Indiana passing attack.
 

SUSPECT SCHEDULE

 
One question about Indiana that is beyond their control but still very much worth raising going into Friday is how they will handle the playoff talent level considering their lackluster schedule during the season.  They managed to avoid four of the top five other teams in the Big Ten (Oregon, Penn State, Illinois and Iowa) and weren’t overly competitive against the one ranked team they faced all season, losing 38-15 to Ohio State.  The Buckeyes were also the only offense that Indiana played that ranked in the top 75 in scoring and now draws a Notre Dame squad that comes in at third nationally with an average of 39.3 points per game. 
 

LEADING LEONARD

 
Riley Leonard’s ability as a passer was called into question early into the season, especially after his performance in their upset loss at home to Northern Illinois.  The offensive game plan rightfully shifted from that point forward, putting more emphasis on the running game and keeping the passes more within Leonard’s better accuracy range of ten yards or less.  The results have clearly shown, with the Irish winning ten straight games and Leonard throwing 16 touchdown passes compared to only 3 interceptions.  It’s his ability as a runner that is his clear and true strength, rushing for over 700 yards and fourteen touchdowns on the season.  
 
While Indiana’s strength of schedule can certainly be called into question, regardless of who they played, their defensive stats speak for themselves, with the team ranking 2nd overall in total yards per game, 9th against the pass, 1st against the run, and 6th in scoring.  They had three players achieve 1st team Big Ten honors (end Mikail Kamara, linebacker Aiden Fisher and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds), and as a whole present the Notre Dame offense and coordinator Mike Denbrock one of their toughest matchups of the season. 
 

SOUTH BEND BACKFIELDS

 
Notre Dame has had great running back tandems in the past, with Reggie Brooks and Jerome Bettis in 1992 standing out amongst the best.  This year’s version of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price is certainly in contention as well, and if you include Riley Leonard is their best rushing triple threat including a quarterback since DeShone Kizer and backs Josh Adams and CJ Prosise in 2015.  
 
Love is the best player on the offense, rushing for at least one touchdown in every game this season and ending with 15 on the ground along with 949 yards.  He was also fourth on the team in receptions with 22 while contributing an additional two scores through the air.  Price is hardly just a backup and would start on many other teams, also averaging over 7 yards per carry while rushing for seven touchdowns and over 650 yards on the ground.  Indiana didn’t play a single team all season in the top 55 in rushing, and Michigan was the only team that they beat in the top 90 in the same category.  They have the defensive talent, as evident by the multiple Big Ten honors, but coordinator Bryant Haines undoubtedly has his work cut out for him attempting to game plan for an Irish rushing attack that has only gotten better as their season progressed.
 

MITCH-A-PALLOOZA

 
The Irish passing game is clearly option B in their offensive planning, but despite the lackluster stats (101st in yards per game), there are still plenty of options for Leonard to choose from.  Beaux Collins and Jaden Greathouse are the starters at wideout and are first and second on the team in receiving yards, though scoring has not necessarily been their strong suit, with both having combined for just one touchdown reception since the month of September.  The return of tight end Mitchell Evans to full strength after a slow start due to injury has at least provided a better scoring option through the air for Riley Leonard, with the Mackey Award finalist having caught three touchdowns over the last four games of the year and ending overall as the team leader in receptions with 29. 
 

TRENDS AND PICK

 
Neither Indiana nor Notre Dame has done necessarily well against top-tier competition, but the depths of the Hoosiers’ struggles seem to run deeper in terms of this weekend.  While it is undoubtedly unimpressive that the Irish have gone just 8-33 in their last 41 games against teams ranked in the top 12, they have at least found success against the good, not great, with a recent 19-1 run in their last 20 games against teams ranked 10-25.  Indiana, on the other hand, has lost its last twelve straight versus ranked teams, losing by an average of over 25 points per game.  Since 2003 they are 5-52 versus the top 25, and only one of those victories was against a team in the top 10; and have also especially struggled on the road in top-tier competition, having gone just 1-16 in their last 17 away games against ranked opponents.  It is obvious it is an entirely different program in Bloomington with Curt Cignetti at the helm, but there is only so much of the past that you can ignore before a trend becomes more of a reality.
 
Notre Dame’s ability to score points has had a direct correlation to their success in recent years, having gone 79-3 in their last 82 games when scoring over 21 points and just 2-16 when putting up less than 21 points.  They have also done well when giving a decent amount of points versus the number, having gone an impressive 15-3 in their last 18 games against the spread as a favorite of seven or more.  I believe they have the offensive prowess to put up the necessary points to beat an impressive but still not overly tested Indiana defense, and by game’s end, head coach Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish will get the win and cover in what promises to be a frigid fight in South Bend.
 

Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -7

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