Notre Dame vs. Georgia: Can the Bulldogs Win Without Beck?

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS) vs. No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2 SU, 4-9 ATS)
Allstate Sugar Bowl Betting Preview
Date/Time: Wednesday, January 1st, 2025, 8:45PM (EST)
Where: Caesars Superdome New Orleans, LA
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: ND +2/UGA -2
Moneyline: ND +110/UGA -130
Total: 44.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish took down No. 10 Indiana 27-17 in the opening round of the College Football Playoffs to advance to their quarterfinal match-up, which will take place on New Year’s Day against the 2nd ranked Georgia Bulldogs at the Allstate Sugar Bowl inside Caesars Superdome. While the 27-17 final result against Indiana may seem modest, the Fighting Irish dominated the Hoosiers in that match-up before giving up some garbage time points to make the final result appear closer than the game actually unfolded. In fact, I was so impressed with the Fighting Irish that I believe they have a legitimate opportunity to become the Cinderella Story of this year’s playoffs.

Unfortunately for Notre Dame, the 2nd ranked Bulldogs may just be the best team in college football and are looking for their 3rd National Championship in the last 4 years. The Bulldogs are backed by one of the best defenses in the country and legitimate talent all over the field, which is the type of team that the Fighting Irish have yet to encounter this season. With that being said, the big news from Athens surrounds the fact that former starting QB Carson Beck will miss the rest of the season after being injured at the end of the SEC Championship Game. Therefore, the Bulldogs hopes for another National Championship will fall on the shoulders of sophomore QB Gunner Stockton.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Analysis

If you like old-school smash-mouth football, this match-up between the Fighting Irish and the Bulldogs has all the ingredients to be a physical match-up in the trenches. Both defenses have played tremendously throughout the season and will likely have the upper hand in each of their match-ups. In fact, both the Fighting Irish and the Bulldogs have a similar focus towards relying on the running attack to control the football while trusting their defenses to create takeaways and short-field opportunities to beat their opponents on the scoreboard. As a result, this game will likely be a physical grudge match to see which offense can establish the running attack and which defense can assert their dominance throughout an entire 60 minutes of play.

Without Beck behind center, I’m afraid the Bulldogs offense is more one-dimensional with their offensive approach, which plays into the strength of the Notre Dame defense that has been rock solid against the run. Additionally, I have said many times this season that the Bulldogs rushing attack is not as dominant as we have seen in previous years, and I think that could be exposed in this match-up, especially if Stockton struggles throwing the football. Meanwhile, on the other side of the field, I believe Notre Dame actually has more paths to success on offense. QB Riley Leonard, RB Jeremiyah Love, and RB Jadarian Price have consistently produced big numbers on the ground, and those three rushers are used in various ways to keep each runner effective. If Leonard can simply make a few plays through the passing game to get the respect of the Georgia defense, this rushing attack could prevail in the latter stages of this game.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Trends

• Notre Dame is 9-0 ATS in the last nine games.
• Notre Dame has hit the “over” in 13 of the last 19 games.
• Notre Dame is 10-0 SU in the last 10 games.
• Notre Dame has hit the “under” in six of the last seven games against SEC opponents.
• Georgia is 3-9 ATS in the last 12 games.
• Georgia is 8-1 SU in the last nine games.
• Georgia has hit the “over” in four of the last six games.
• Georgia is 1-9 ATS in the last ten games as the betting favorite.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Prediction

I am expecting a highly contested match-up, which means a couple of turnovers or big plays could be the difference. While those outliers are hard to predict, I do believe that Notre Dame is much better than people realize. For that reason, I am going to ride the Fighting Irish in this match-up to pull off the mild upset!

Jay’s Pick: Take Notre Dame +2

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