Betting Pick: Notre Dame vs. Army in a Historic Matchup

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) vs. Army Black Knights (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, November 23rd, 7:00 PM
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
TV: NBC

Point Spread: ND -14 / Army +14
Over/Under Total: 44.5

In a game with major BCS Playoff ramifications, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish head to New York to take on the Army Black Knights at Yankee Stadium on Saturday night. This will be the 52nd all-time meeting between the teams with Notre Dame holding a 39-8-4 advantage that includes a current 15 game winning streak in the series that dates back to 1965. It also marks the 23rd time that they will play in the Bronx, and at least gives home town fans a chance to see quality football in person since Army has more total wins then the three teams combined that Yankee fans root for the most (Jets, Giants and Dallas Cowboys).

CULTURE CHANGE

Before head coach Jeff Monken arrived at West Point in 2014, the Army football team had a .500 record or better only once in the previous 18 years. They have now eclipsed that mark in seven of the last eight seasons and are currently in the midst of the best start in school history with a 9-0 record. Monken has had his team ready for their biggest games, having gone 4-1 in bowls and a 6-2 record in their last eight against Navy, and with the extra week to prepare for Notre Dame will undoubtedly have his team fully focused on the game at hand.

DAILY NEWS

Black Knights quarterback Bryson Daily is the clear focal point of the Army offense, doing a majority of his work on the ground with over 1000 yards rushing while also running for 21 touchdowns, a mark nationally that is second only to Ashton Jeanty (the Boise State star who should be leading the Heisman trophy race if it wasn’t for the media’s forced love affair with anything that has to do with Colorado football).

Daily’s innate ability to find the endzone has been an obvious benefit to his teams’ success over his career at West Point, as Army has gone 13-1 since 2022 in games in which he rushes for a touchdown. It may be too difficult of a task to take down Notre Dame with such a one-sided game plan, though, and coach Monken will also need his quarterback to find some success through the air if they want to have a legit chance of pulling off the upset.

PASSING ON PASSING

On the season, the Army passing game has an efficient eight touchdowns compared to one interception, but the air attack in West Point continues to be an afterthought, which is all the more evident considering they rank first in rushing yards per game but all the way at the bottom at 134th in passing. Only two Army players have more than ten receptions on the season: wide receiver Casey Reynolds and running back Noah Short, with Reynolds the lone Black Knight having more than two receptions in a game all year. The senior wideout Reynolds will hope to bust out of a recent slump to at least act like the passing game has validity, as he had zero targets in their last game and just one reception the week before.

FLEXBONE BACKFIELD

Rounding out the running game for Army is back Kanye Udoh, who has posted 856 yards rushing as the second option of the West Point backfield behind Bryson Daily. Udoh has also seen a major increase in scoring from a season ago, when he ended the year with nine straight games without a touchdown, but has gotten into the endzone nine times since in 2024. Third option, Noah Short, is the biggest receiving threat out of the backfield but has slid further back in production with just 22 carries in their last seven games after getting 19 in their first two. Notre Dame’s much heralded defenses’ only statistic that borders on average has been against the run, ranking just 43rd nationally compared to 2nd versus the pass and 3rd in scoring. They haven’t allowed a running back to go over 100 yards rushing in a game all season, though (Navy quarterback Blake Horvath is the only one to do so against the Irish), so both Udoh and Short, along with Daily, have an undoubtedly tough challenge awaiting them on Saturday, especially with the expected return of Notre Dame star defensive lineman Howard Cross from injury.

TWO FOR THE MONEY

Currently sitting at 8th in the BCS Playoff rankings with just two games remaining in their regular season and no chance of a conference championship misstep, Notre Dame is in clear control of their own destiny. If they win out, they can only improve on their seeding, with some of the teams ahead of them still having difficult matchups remaining on their schedule. The Irish are ineligible for a bye due to the top four seeds automatically going to the top four conference champions, but the more they can improve, the more opportune their first-round matchup will be, especially if at the friendly confines of Notre Dame Stadium on a cold night in late December.

RILING THE OFFENSE

As Riley Leonard’s passing found consistency, the Irish offense responded accordingly. The Notre Dame quarterback has thrown for over 200 yards in four of their last five games after not clearing that mark in their previous eight matchups, and during that same time span, Leonard has done an exceptional job in spreading the ball around, with at least nine different players catching a pass in each. This may not have helped statistically their starting two receivers, Beaux Collins has just two catches in his last two games, and Jaden Greathouse has only one reception in three of his last five, but all that matters is that the team itself continues to light up the scoreboard. One target that has continued to get better the healthier he gets is tight end Mitchell Evans, who has scored in each of his last two games and is looking more and more like an NFL Draft selection in 2025.

Leonard faces one of the best defenses he has seen this season in the Black Knights who rank 3rd in rushing, 2nd in scoring 5th in yards allowed per game while also having plenty of experience playing against a rushing quarterback after going up against Bryson Daily in practice for the last two seasons. The more success Leonard can find through the air will only help open things up that much for the Irish ground game.

LOVE ON THE RUN

The Army defense will have plenty else to focus on in the Notre Dame backfield due to Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Love continues to be a magnet for the endzone, having rushed for a touchdown in every game this season with twelve overall, including five in his last three matchups. His value also stretches to the passing game, with Love coming in at fourth on the team in receptions with eighteen. Price doesn’t get as many carries, but he has certainly made the most of his opportunities thus far, rushing for 487 yards and averaging over 7 yards per while scoring a touchdown in five of his last six games in which he has at least seven carries. The Irish have also done well in the standings when the backup is more involved, too, as they are 11-0 over the past two years when Price has five or more carries

THE FINAL SELECTION

Army is in the midst of one of their best seasons in program history, posting an undefeated season thus far and doing so in impressive fashion with double-digit wins in every game. They have also been prosperous for the betting public, going 7-2 against the spread with their only two non-covers by a combined 1.5 points. When you look deeper at their schedule, though, certain things stand out, most notably the fact they have only beaten one team with a winning record (ECU), who themselves have not beaten any teams over .500 this year. There is nothing a team can do about their schedule, but the jump in competition against Notre Dame cannot be understated considering the Black Knights other eight wins game came against FCS Lehigh, the bottom six teams in the AAC and a 3-7 Air Force squad.

When looking at both teams’ recent history against quality competition is where you really start to see a difference. Since 2003, Army is 2-17 against ranked teams, with their two wins against the Navy and Air Force when both 25th in the polls at the time. Notre Dame on the other hand is 18-1 in their last 19 games versus teams ranked 11th-25th.

To claim victory this weekend, the Black Knight would need to play a near-perfect game against the Irish, likely needing an early lead as digging out of any sort of a hole would be tough to come back from, considering their lack of a passing game. Navy was in a very similar situation about a month ago when facing Notre Dame, coming in with a perfect record and riding a recent run of success in protecting the ball (Army’s offense is currently ranked 1st in the country with just three turnovers), but as soon as they lost that flawlessness they fell off the track, and the Midshipmen ended up getting blown out with the game well over at halftime. While I believe Army is the best of the armed services academies and will eventually win the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy, I also think the step up in play against the Irish will be too much for them to handle for a full 60 minutes and by game’s end Notre Dame will end up with the win and cover on Saturday.

Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -14

BAS Sportsbook -105 Odds!

BetAnySports is the perfect 5Dimes replacement, offering reduced juice with -105 odds on most markets. If you’re looking to get more value from your bets, this is the sportsbook for you. With the same great features you loved about 5Dimes, BetAnySports provides competitive lines, smooth navigation, and a wide range of betting options. Ready to step up your game? Join now and enjoy -105 odds… Read More