Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack Pick

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Date/Time: Saturday, September 9th, 12:00 PM

Where: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC

TV: ABC

Point Spread: ND -7 / NC ST +7 (STOP wasting money! Start betting games at reduce odds at BAS!)

Over/Under Total: 49.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish head south to take on North Carolina State at Carter-Finley Stadium in what will be the Wolfpack’s 2023 home opener. This will be just the fourth time ever that the teams have met, with NC State holding a 2-1 all-time advantage, though it was the Irish who came out on top 35-14 in their most recent matchup back in 2017.

SPRINGBOARD START

The Irish come into the game as one of only four teams currently sporting a 2-0 record after resounding wins to start the year against Navy and Tennessee State. The Midshipmen are in a rebuilding process with a new coach, and TSU is only at the FCS level, but even with those variables factored in, the Irish have looked quite impressive in outscoring their two opponents 98-6 and having not allowed a touchdown through the season’s first eight quarters.

FULL HART CAN’T LOSE

The catalyst behind the fast start by the Irish has been new quarterback Sam Hartman. The former Wake transfer has looked near unstoppable through his first two games for the Golden Domers and, at this point has the same number of incompletions (7) that he does total touchdowns (six passing, one rushing). Hartman has appeared unflappable no matter the situation and, time again, found a way to turn around a negative situation in the pocket into a successful play downfield. With a well-rounded backfield and already sixteen different players that have caught passes through the first two games, the Hartman-led Irish offense has a chance to be the most well-rounded South Bend has seen in quite some time.

ONE-TWO PUNCH

Audric Estime could have posted career numbers against Tennessee State, but the Irish coaching staff rightfully kept his carries in check against the lesser opponent to make sure he stays nice and fresh for a first-half schedule that includes the Wolfpack this week, followed soon after by future Top Ten matchups against Ohio State, USC, and Clemson. Estime has averaged over seven yards per carry with a score in each of his first two games, and his battering ram style is a perfect offset to Hartman’s passing and improvisational skills that make efficiently covering both of them that much harder to do for opposing defenses. Thankfully for the Irish, Estime is far from alone in the backfield, and any time he needs a spell, there is plenty of talent behind him, with Jeremiyah Love, Gi’Bran Payne, and Jadarian Price amongst those backing him up.

THOMAS AND THE TARGETS

Seven different Notre Dame players have caught touchdowns so far this year, but the clear leader of the group is sophomore Jayden Thomas. The dynamic Thomas tops the team in receptions and yards and will likely continue to be the first person that Hartman looks toward to take advantage of stretching the field with opposing defenses possibly focused on slowing down Audric Estime and the running game. Other options include new starter at tight end Mitchell Evans, touchdown reception leader Jaden Greathouse, and former running back Chris Tyree, who scored a week ago and added to his team success streak as the Irish have now won eight straight regular season games when Tyree gets into the endzone.

CONFERENCE SHUFFLE

Notre Dame is not the only team with an ACC transfer as their signal caller, with former Virginia Cavalier quarterback Brennan Armstrong now leading the way for the Wolfpack. Armstrong has considerable skills on the ground, already running for 96 yards and two touchdowns this season, and has done well in the short passing game while spreading the ball around to 9 different players in NC State’s opening weekend win against Connecticut. This was a big sign for an offense that lost three of their top four receivers and returned only one (Keyon Lesane) that had over 20 receptions a season ago. The issue for the Wolfpack is how much has Brennan actually changed from last season when he ranked second to last in the ACC in passing efficiency. His woes extended much farther than just in the conference, as out of the 77 total quarterbacks in the NCAA in 2022 that had at least 300 passing attempts, Armstrong was third to last amongst all of them in QB rating.

SCORING DROUGHT

Armstrong is far from the only talented runner on the team, with senior running back Jordan Houston the incumbent starter for the Wolfpack. He has talent out of the backfield as a receiver, with 25 catches a season ago, but getting into the endzone remains his major albatross. Despite carrying the ball 136 times and rushing for over 500 yards a season ago, Houston did not run for a single touchdown. This stands out even more when you consider that of the 206 players to have over 100 carries in 2022, Jordan Houston is the only one not to rush for at least one touchdown. Unfortunately, his scoring quest faces an even bigger challenge this week against an Irish defense that ranks sixth in yards allowed per game and has yet to allow anyone into the endzone.

PAYTON PAY OFF

A major reason for the Wolfpack’s success in 2022 was a defense that ranked 11th in scoring, 10th against the run, and 19th in yards per game. Unfortunately, just five starters return from that squad, with star linebacker Payton Wilson the only player in their top six in tackles to be back from 2022. There is some talent around him, namely cornerback Aydan White, along with linemen David Vann and CJ Clark, but how quickly the new players are able to gel together will be an important factor for the Wolfpack if they plan on stopping the Sam Hartman-led offense of the Irish.

THE FINAL DECISION

NC State is in the midst of a dominant home streak under head coach Dave Doeren, having gone 16-1 in their last 17 games at Carter-Finley Stadium. This includes a 3-0 against-the-spread run as a home dog, which includes two outright wins, including a 27-21 double-overtime thriller in 2021 when they were getting 10 points against Clemson.

I believe that run of Wolfpack success is going to come to a grinding halt on Saturday against Notre Dame. This is a different Irish team with Sam Hartman at quarterback, and his playmaking ability, combined with a strong backfield led by Audric Estime, will be too much of a combination for a rebuilding NC State defense to contain. The Wolfpack offense lacks that consistency with a quarterback in Armstrong that has proven passing problems, which will allow the Notre Dame defense to load up on the run and dare NC State to try and beat them through the air. I will gladly give the seven points in this game and believe the Wolfpack will be an early stepping stone as Notre Dame cements themselves as a BCS contender with an easy win and cover on the road in Raleigh.

Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -7.

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