Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Navy Midshipmen Pick ATS

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-3 SU, ATS 5-4) vs. Navy Midshipmen (3-6 SU, ATS 5-4)
Date: Saturday, November 12th
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
TV: ABC
Point Spread: Fighting Irish -17/Midshipmen +17
Money Line: Fighting Irish -1008/Midshipmen +619
Over/Under: 42.5

RECENT FORM

This season, the Fighting Irish have an overall record of 6-3 and have been favored in 5 games while posting an ATS mark of 5-4-0. Their average over-under betting line is 49.61 leading to an over-under record of 4-4-1.

In their last game vs. Clemson, the Fighting Irish won by a score of 35-14. Heading into the matchup, they were 3.5-point underdogs. In the win, Notre Dame completed 52.9% of their 17 passes, 1 of which resulted in a touchdown. The team ended the game with 2 rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 263 yards on the ground.

So far, quarterback Drew Pyne has a passer rating of 98.65 while completing 111 of his 182 attempts. Currently, he has a total of 1278 passing yards. The team’s most productive wide receiver is Lorenzo Styles, who has caught 24 passes for a total of 292 yards. The top option in the run game for the team is Audric Estime, who has carried the ball 117 times for a total of 662 yards.

So far this season, the Midshipmen have a record of 3-6. This includes a mark of 3-4 in American Athletic action. This season, the Midshipmen have been favored in 2 games while posting an ATS mark of 5-4. Their average over-under betting line is 47.0 leading to an over-under record of 5-4.

Navy is coming off a 10-point loss to Cincinnati by a score of 20-10. The Midshipmen entered the game as 18.5-point home underdogs, making this an ATS loss. To finish the game, the Midshipmen had a yards per completion figure of 21.0 and a total of 84 yards through the air. However, they did not come up with a touchdown pass through the air. On the ground, the team ended with one rushing touchdown while averaging 3.3 yards per carry for a total of 176 yards.

Heading into the matchup, Tai Lavatai has an overall passer rating of 81.16 on a total of 787 yards. Thus far, he has thrown for five touchdowns and three interceptions. However, Notre Dame will need to replace his production, as he is listed as out on the injury report. Through the air, the team will be looking for a big game from leading receiver Jayden Umbarger. On the season, he has caught 16 for 265 yards. In the run game, Daba Fofana has accumulated 502 yards on 140 attempts to lead the team.

BETTING TRENDS

Through their last ten matchups, Notre Dame has gone 6-4 straight up and 5-5 vs. the spread. On offense, the team averaged 29.7 points per game while allowing 22.8. Their over-under mark (last 10) is 5-4-1.

When looking at their past five road matchups, Notre Dame has an ATS record of 5-0 while averaging 33.8 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.

Against the spread, the Midshipmen have gone 6-4 over their last ten games. Straight up, they have a record of 4-6. On average, the team scored 21.4 points per game while allowing 23.6, leading to a negative scoring differential.

In their last five games at home, the Midshipmen have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 1-4 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 24.0 points per game in these contests.

More Picks: Louisville at Clemson Betting Odds, Analysis, Free Pick ATS for Week 11

KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Fighting Irish will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 69th in the NCAA in points scored and will be matched up against a Navy defense that is allowing an average of 24.78 points per game and has had its problems getting off the field on third down.

One aspect of the game that could benefit a Notre Dame offense that struggles to generate big plays in the passing attack is that they are facing off a Navy defense that has yet to generate a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So far, the Midshipmen are just 71st in sacks per game.

This season, Notre Dame is averaging 43.11 rush attempts per game, good for 29th in the country. In terms of production, they are 18th in yards per game at 195.11. This week, the Fighting Irish will be facing a Navy defense that is ranked 10th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 154.0 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Midshipmen will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 109th in the NCAA in points scored and have a tough draw against a Notre Dame defense that is allowing an average of 21.22 points per game.

This week, Navy may look to throw the ball more than they have, as they are below the NCAA average in pass attempts per game but rank well in yards per completion. In addition, they should have plenty of time to work the ball down the field, with Notre Dame ranking just 21st in sacks per contest.

So far, Navy has relied heavily on the ground game, as they rank 1st in attempts per game, with an average of 60.22. This heavy usage has led to an average of 236.89 rush yards per game, placing them 9th in the NCAA. This week, the Midshipmen will be facing a Notre Dame defense that is 38th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they have averaged 152.5 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.

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