Notre Dame at Georgia Tech Point Spread Pick | CFB Week 8

 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, October 19th, 3:30 PM
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: ND -11 / GT +11
Over/Under Total: 49

In a battle of two teams looking to clinch early bowl eligibility, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets play host to Notre Dame at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon.  This will be the 38th ever meeting between the teams, with the Fighting Irish holding a 30-6-1 all-time advantage.  This includes a current three-game winning streak and a 10-1 mark in regular-season games against the Yellow Jackets that goes back to 1976, with the only loss in 2007 when Aer Dingus Charlie Weis was still clogging the South Bend sidelines.

HALFWAY THERE

Notre Dame goes into the weekend ranked 12th and looks at a back-half schedule loaded with possible landmines.  Neutral field battles against Army and Navy await, with both service academies now ranked for the first time since 1960, along with games against Virginia and Florida State before closing with a road trip to take on USC in that Coliseum, where the Irish are just 1-3 in their last four games.  They may be on the outside looking in on some early BCS playoff projections, but with the teams ahead of them hitting the hardest parts of their conference schedules, Notre Dame appears to be playoff-bound if they can navigate through and run the table on their remaining games.

KEY TO VICTORY

Head Coach Brent Key is in the midst of his third season as Georgia Tech’s head coach and appears to have them pointed in the right direction.  The Ramblin’ Wreck are in position to get to their second straight bowl game in 2024, which would be the first time they would make back-to-back post season appearances in over a decade.  It is good for the team that they were able to take advantage of an easier first-half schedule, though, as a much tougher slate awaits them, including non-conference games against Notre Dame and Georgia along with ACC matchups versus Miami, NC State, and a road journey to take on Virginia Tech in Blacksburg.  It also doesn’t help that they may be relying on a backup at quarterback for the foreseeable future due to the injury to starter Haynes King.

DOWN WITH THE KING

A streak of twenty straight games started at quarterback for Haynes King appears in jeopardy after he was injured in the fourth quarter a week ago during Tech’s win against North Carolina.  Haynes was having a strong season, having thrown for eight touchdowns compared to just one interception while also running for an additional six scores on the ground.  Backup Zack Pryon has rushing skills of his own, having run for four scores on just 17 carries this season, but the offense sputtered under his lead against the Tar Heels, with two straight three-and-out drives before the offense was saved by a Jamal Haynes 65-yard touchdown run.  The possible loss of King’s dual-threat skills cannot be understated as the point spread for this game has doubled since word of his likely unavailability spread, and it’s easy to see why, considering Pryon’s first start will be against a Notre Dame defense that ranks nationally sixth against the pass, eighth in scoring and eleventh in total yards allowed per game.

HAYNES BRIEFS

The now clear focal point of the offense is running back Jamal Haynes, who leads the team in carries, rushing yards, and overall touchdowns with eight.  The Ramblin’ Wreck rushing attack ranks 25th in the country and will be relied upon even more heavily with the injury to King and Pryon’s abilities more suited to the ground than air.  The success of Haynes has translated into success for Georgia Tech, as the team is 6-0 when he gets at least 17 carries and 9-3 when he scores a touchdown.  

Through the air, whoever starts at quarterback will look toward wide receivers Malik Rutherford and Eric Singleton, with both having combined for nearly half of the teams’ catches and receiving touchdowns and over 900 of their 1700 yards through the air.  Notre Dame has had a recent rash of injuries to their defense, and that continued this week when future NFL first-round pick at cornerback Benjamin Morrison was lost for the season, which should at least open the passing door somewhat, but how much the Yellow Jackets will be able to take advantage remains to be seen.  

RILED UP

The once briefly questionable quarterback situation at Notre Dame has certainly settled itself with the improved play of Riley Leonard, who is coming off of a three touchdown pass performance against Stanford that also saw him rush for a score for the fifth consecutive week.  Leonard also threw for over 200 passing yards, which may not seem like much but it’s an undoubted step in the right direction considering it was the first time he has cleared that mark in nine games.  Beaux Collins and Jaden Greathouse remain his favorite targets, but the offense has recently found more consistency by spreading the ball around, which was evident a week ago when eleven different players on Notre Dame had at least one reception.

LOVE RUN

Thanks to a quarterback who is more skilled on the ground than through the air, it’s easy to see how the Notre Dame rushing offense ranks 16th in the country compared to 108th in passing.  The double threat of Leonard helps to open things up, but the combination of star Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price cannot be ignored as the focal point of the offense.  Love leads the team in all rushing categories and has found the endzone in seven straight games, while the additional involvement of Price has done especially well for the Irish, as they have gone 7-0 when the backup gets at least five carries.

TRENDS

Both teams have been on a positive run of late in the standings and against the spread, with the Yellow Jackets posting an 8-2 straight-up record and a 7-2-1 mark versus the number in their last ten games and the Irish having gone 8-1 in the standings and 7-2 against the spread.  The difference, though, has more been with the total points, as Georgia Tech games have gone under in seven of their last nine while Notre Dame has hit the over in nine of their last twelve.  Nothing has seemed to determine the outcome of the Fighting Irish games more than how much they light up the scoreboard, considering they have lost their last eight games in a row when scoring less than 21 points but are 69-3 in their 72 games when scoring more than 21. 

THE FINAL DECISION

Notre Dame has gone 31-10 over their last 41 road or neutral site games, with nine of those ten losses coming against ranked teams.  This translates to a team that gets things done away from home when expected, which shows with a 23-1 straight record in their last 24 road/neutral games against unranked teams, including an impressive 17-6-1 mark against the spread.

Georgia Tech has had a great run of late against quality competition, having covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against ranked opponents, which includes four outright victories.  I don’t think a lot of those came with a banged-up or inexperienced backup playing quarterback though, and to overcome that burden will cause the Yellow Jacket offense to become too one dimensional and provide Notre Dame with enough of an advantage to come away with a win and cover on Saturday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -11

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