Northwestern Wildcats vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Predictions
Northwestern Wildcats (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date and Time: Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 12PM EDT
Where: SHI Stadium, Piscataway, New Jersey
TV: CBS
Point Spread: NW +7/RUTG -7 (Bovada – The most incredible live betting platform on the planet!)
Over/Under Total: 40
The Northwestern Wildcats come up to Piscataway for a week one Big Ten Conference showdown with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Both teams are in common positions, as two typically-abused teams looking to find some footing in the Big Ten. And while Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano has failed to get Rutgers to where they were during his first run as coach from 2001-2011, he has taken an overturned Scarlet Knights program and gotten them back to a level of semi-respectability. Meanwhile, Northwestern is dealing with so many issues that it almost has made people forget they were a woeful 1-11 last season, going winless after winning their first game of the season. They enter this week’s one-road game with a lot on their plate—none of it good.
Strange Position for Rutgers
It hasn’t been often in recent years where Rutgers enters a Big Ten Conference game in an appreciably-better position than their opponent. You couldn’t have accomplished a worse headspace for this Northwestern squad if you had drawn it up on paper. They spent the last 11 games of last season in an awful state, pitifully putting up single-digit scoring in 6 of their last eight games. Then a hazing scandal (imagine having to put up with that to play for this dumpster fire of a program) took hold that led to the dismissal of longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald. In a game preview, it’s going to be hard to really quantify the damage this program has taken and how they were not in a great position to absorb it.
This would normally be one of the rare spots where you’d entertain a position on Northwestern. Despite last season’s dismal showing, getting a TD at Rutgers would typically hold some minor appeal. But even in this reduced conference context, one has to gauge not only the prospects of things carrying over from last season, where the Wildcats could barely get into the end zone but their morale after a trying offseason and the sudden dismissal of a coach with a tenure of 17 years. But we can’t let all the bad talk about Northwestern blind us from some very real issues Rutgers has going into this game as touchdown favorites.
The Flip Side of the Coin
New Northwestern head coach David Braun has a massive challenge on his hands, taking over very late in July. He had just been hired as defensive coordinator after a successful run at North Dakota State. His defensive know-how is massive, and you’d think that kind of defensive emphasis will resonate in spots like this against wayward offenses like what Rutgers brings to the table. Northwestern rightfully gets a lot of attention in this matchup as the inept offense, but Rutgers wasn’t all that far behind last season. They can’t seem to get a good quarterback to run this Schiano offense. Guys like QB Gavin Wimsatt can improve, but he couldn’t even complete 45% of his throws last season. There isn’t much talent around him in the form of pass-catchers or a good line.
There seems to be a higher level of “buying in” for these Rutgers players, as opposed to Northwestern, at least based on last season. They have some things in common. Their offenses are among the worst in the power five conferences. Their defense is the best part of the team. And they’re both sacrificial lambs for the better teams in the conference. But Schiano’s guys play hard for him. There isn’t a ton to get excited about on the roster or in any game aspects in particular, but just showing a lot of effort can go a long way in a matchup like this where there isn’t a ton on either sideline to really spike one’s optimism. But I’d hesitate to think that even with Northwestern’s list of issues on and off the field, this Rutgers team is ever a slam-dunk laying a TD.
What to Expect
The total of 40 speaks volumes to the anticipated texture of this game. Braun’s Northwestern defense might get chewed up and spit out in conference, but not so much in this spot against what, again, figures to be a languid Rutgers offense. We presume it will be Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant who is handed the starting QB gig for the Wildcats. He has shown some decent ability. Could the dismissal of Fitzgerald lead to this offense opening things up a bit more? There could be some hidden appeal with what might be a new-look Northwestern offense that needs to find a different path than what they’ve been doing. It’s just that they’ve had so little time to infuse any new philosophies with the late dismissal of Fitzgerald. And seeing a spurt of newfound offensive success might be hard against a Rutgers defense that was low-key pretty good last season and is returning a large part of that group for 2023.
Take the Points
It’s not easy to get behind a Northwestern team that is covered in this much stink carrying an 11-game losing streak and an offseason scandal into this game. They are also on the road, in conference, and facing a pretty good defense. I just think some people might be double-counting Northwestern’s issues while allowing it to obscure the shortcomings on the other side of this equation. This game looks to be a grind. Rutgers is the rightful favorite. But a touchdown is a little rich for an offense that is this bad. I see a close game where having 7 points might be a good thing. I’ll take the leap of faith on the Wildcats in this one.
Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Northwestern Wildcats plus 7 points.
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