Friday Night Pick: Northwestern at Maryland

Northwestern Wildcats (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) at Maryland Terrapins (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS), October 11, 2024

When: 8 pm ET Friday, Oct. 11

Where: SECU Stadium

TV: Fox

CFB betting odds

Point spread: NW +10/Mary -10

Money line: NW +300/MD -400

Over/under: 45.5

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Two teams in need of wins if they’re hoping to make a bowl this season meet when Maryland and Northwestern provide this week’s edition of Friday night Big 10 football betting action from College Park.

The Wildcats, who won eight games last year, including a bowl, own only two wins so far this year. And the schedule isn’t exactly friendly from here on out. Meanwhile, the Terrapins are in a little better shape with three wins, but they’ve got some tough games ahead, too.

Can Maryland cover a double-digit spread Friday night? Or can the ‘Cats keep this one close?

The Line

The CFB Week 7 betting market opened Maryland at -9.5 for Friday night, with an O/U of around 45.5. Early betting action edged the Terps to -10.

According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings at Sagarin.com, the line on this game should be 12.5.

Northwestern Betting Preview

The Wildcats are 2-3 on the season after losing at home to Indiana last Saturday 41-24. Northwestern, catching 13 points as home dogs, only trailed the Hoosiers 27-24 midway through the fourth quarter. But the ‘Cats gave up the last 14 points of the game to lose the cover.

Northwestern got out-gained by Indiana 529-336.

Two games ago, the Wildcats were out-gained by Washington 391-112, lost 24-5, and missed ATS at +12.

In fact, Northwestern hasn’t covered a spread since its season-opening 13-6 victory over Miami-Ohio at -3.

The Wildcats were expected to finish near the bottom of the Big 10 this season, and they’re off to an 0-2 conference start. With games yet to play against Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan, and Illinois, bowl eligibility is looking like it might be tough to come by.

Maryland Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Terrapins are 3-2 on the season after also losing to Indiana two weeks ago, 42-28. Maryland then had last week off.

The Terps, catching 7.5 points as dogs against the Hoosiers, played that game to 21-21 late into the third quarter. But Maryland allowed the next 21 points of the game and could not recover enough to claim the cash.

The Terrapins produced 401 yards of total offense but gave up 510 yards to Indiana. Maryland was also unable to turn four defensive takeaways into any points.

Two games ago, the Terps led Villanova (FCS) 24-0 at the half, won 38-20, but couldn’t hang on for the cover at -23. Three games ago, Maryland trailed Virginia 13-7 at the half but won the second half 20-0 and the game 27-13.

The Terrapins were expected to finish somewhere in the middle of the Big 10 this season, but they’re also off to a 0-2 conference start. If they don’t win this game, bowl eligibility might be tough, considering they still must play USC, Minnesota (which just beat USC), Oregon, Rutgers, Iowa, and Penn State.

Northwestern-Maryland Recent History

The Wildcats are 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS against the Terps, with all games played since Maryland joined the Big 10 in 2014. Last year, Northwestern, as a two-touchdown home dog, upset the Terps 33-27.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played one common opponent so far this season: Indiana. Maryland fell to the Hoosiers two weeks ago 42-28, while Northwestern lost to Indiana last week 41-24. However, the Terps were only out-gained by 70 yards, while the ‘Cats were out-gained by 193 yards.

Totals Report

• Unders are 3-2 in Wildcats games this season, which are averaging 39 total points.
• Overs are 4-1 in Terps games, averaging 55 points.
• Overs are 3-1 over the last four meetings between these teams.

Free College Football Pick

From the QB comparison to the running games to the defenses, we see these teams as very close. Maryland owns the better performance against a common opponent, but is that worth 10 points? Also, Northwestern won this matchup last year, and we can’t say that either team is better right now than they were that day. We won’t call for the outright upset here, but we like the Wildcats for Friday night, plus the points.

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