Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State: Potato Bowl Total Pick

Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5 SU, ATS 4-5-1)  vs Fresno State Bulldogs (6-6 SU, ATS 6-4-1)

Date: 2:30 EST Monday, December 23rd

Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: NIU -1.5/FSU +1.5 (Stop wasting money! Bet on games at -105 at BAS!)

Money Line: N. Ill -127/Fresno St.  +106

Over/Under: 41.5

ESPN will be covering the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl matchup between the Northern Illinois Huskies and the Fresno State Bulldogs, set for Monday, December 23rd, at 2:30 ET. The game will be played at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, with Northern Illinois coming in as the slight -1.5-point favorite. The money line odds are -127 for the Huskies and +106 for the Bulldogs, and the over/under line is currently at 41.5 points. The Huskies have a 7-5 record this season, while the Bulldogs are 6-6.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Last season, the Northern Illinois Huskies and Fresno State Bulldogs did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Fresno State Bulldogs have the leg up at 2-1. However, against the spread, the Northern Illinois Huskies went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 1-2 on an average of 43 points per game.

Northern Illinois Huskies Recent Form:

Northern Illinois enters Week 13 with a 7-5 record, going 3-1 at home and 3-3 on the road. They’ve been favored in six of their 12 games, holding a 4-2 record as the favorite.

Their average scoring margin is +5.8 points per game, and they are 4-5-1 against the spread. On the road, they’ve covered four out of six games, but they are 0-3-1 ATS at home.

The Huskies’ over/under record is 4-6, with their games averaging 42.7 points. Their average over/under line is 44.9 points, and this week’s line is set at 41.5 points.

Northern Illinois has leaned heavily on their ground game, ranking 12th in the nation with 41.8 rushing attempts per game, and they are 20th in rushing yards, averaging 208.6 yards per game. Gavin Williams leads the team with 741 rushing yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored four touchdowns.

Overall, the Huskies are 71st in scoring, with 24.2 points per game, and we have them ranked 104th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Ethan Hampton has thrown for 1,600 yards and 12 touchdowns, but Northern Illinois is 116th in passing yards per game. Hampton has six interceptions and a passer rating of 84.

Northern Illinois’ defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 12th nationally by allowing just 18.4 points per game. In their recent game against Central Michigan, they gave up only 16 points and 204 total yards, including 92 passing yards and 112 rushing yards, while forcing one interception.

Opponents have averaged 113.2 rushing yards per game on 31.5 attempts and 169.2 passing yards against Northern Illinois, which ranks 13th in the nation. Quarterbacks have completed just 54.2% of their passes, posting a passer rating of 77.3 against the Huskies.

Away Injury Report

Fresno State Bulldogs Recent Form:

Fresno State enters Week 13 with a 6-6 record, going 3-2 at home and 2-4 on the road. They’ve been favored in seven of their 12 games, holding a 5-2 record as the favorite. At home, the Bulldogs are 3-1 when favored.

Against the spread, Fresno State is 6-4-1, with a +2 average scoring margin. They are 4-2-1 ATS as the favorite and 3-2 at home.

Their over/under record stands at 4-7, with an average line of 49.6 points. Fresno State games have averaged 51.2 points, and this week’s line is set at 41.5 points.

Fresno State’s offense is centered around their passing game, ranking 18th in completions and averaging 244.7 yards per game. Mikey Keene has thrown for 2,887 yards, completing 70.4% of his passes, and the Bulldogs are 4th in the nation in completion percentage. Keene has 18 touchdowns but also 11 interceptions, and his passer rating is 95. Mac Dalena leads the receivers with 941 yards and eight touchdowns.

Overall, Fresno State is 56th in scoring, with 26.6 points per game, and we have them ranked 93rd in our offensive power rankings. They have struggled on third downs, converting 39.7%, and their run game is averaging just 97.4 yards per game. Elijah Gilliam has 466 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 3 yards per carry.

Fresno State’s defense allowed 20 points in their recent game against UCLA, giving up 365 total yards. They held UCLA to 76 rushing yards on 31 attempts but allowed 289 passing yards.

On the season, Fresno State’s defense is ranked 45th nationally, allowing 24.6 points per game. Opponents are averaging 139.1 rushing yards per game and 217 passing yards, completing 54.5% of their throws.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road contests, the Northern Illinois Huskies offense has averaged 24 points per game while allowing an average of 24. Northern Illinois posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 1-2 ATS.
• In their last ten games at home, the Fresno State Bulldogs have a straight up record of 3-7 while going 3-6-1 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 21 points per game in these contests.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Fresno State Bulldogs have a strong record vs the spread, going 3-2. Their straight up mark in these contests is 1-4.
• Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Northern Illinois Huskies have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-2.

Free Pick

For this Famous Idaho Potato Bowl matchup, we have two teams that are both better on the defensive side of the ball and can get stagnant on offense. Although the total for this one seems low (41.5), I am counting on this being a really low-scoring game. Both teams are going to struggle to crack 20 points in this one, and I feel really good about taking the under.

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