North Texas vs. South Alabama: Week 1 College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions

North Texas Mean Green (0-0 SU, ATS 0-0)  vs South Alabama Jaguars (0-0 SU, ATS 0-0)

Date: 5:00 EST Saturday, August 31st

Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL

TV: ESPN+

Point Spread: UNT +5.5/USA -5.5

Money Line: UNT +169/USA  -206

Over/Under: 64.5

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North Texas and South Alabama are set to face off in a week one non-conference matchup on Saturday, August 31st, with a 5:00 ET kick-off at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+, and South Alabama is the -5.5-point favorite at home. The money line odds have South Alabama at -206 and North Texas at +169, with the over/under line set at 64.5 points.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The North Texas Mean Green and South Alabama Jaguars did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the North Texas Mean Green have a record of 2-1. The North Texas Mean Green also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 76 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

North Texas Mean Green Recent Form:

Last season, North Texas finished with a 5-7 overall record, going 3-3 at home and 2-4 on the road. They were favored in five of their 12 games, going 1-4 as the favorite and 4-3 as the underdog. Entering this season, North Texas is ranked 106th in our power rankings, with a 51.8% chance of being bowl-eligible.

In the futures market, North Texas is a +2440 long shot to win the American Athletic Conference, with an implied probability of 4%. Their chances of making it to the Conference title game are set at +700 (12%), which ranks 6th among the 14 teams in the conference. Our projections give them a 2% chance of winning the American Athletic Conference.

North Texas’ offense was 29th in the country in scoring last season, scoring 34.5 points per game. They were also 22nd in passing yards per game, averaging 304.4 yards through the air. The Mean Green were 41st in rushing yards per game, with an average of 191.5 yards per contest. This season, they have added quarterback Chandler Morris, who threw for 1,532 yards and 12 touchdowns last year at TCU.

On the ground, North Texas has brought in running back Zach Evans from Minnesota, who rushed for 230 yards last season. Ikaika Ragsdale is the top returning running back, while Damon Ward, who had 487 receiving yards and five touchdowns, is the leading returning receiver for the Mean Green.

North Texas had a tough time stopping the run last season, allowing 255.7 rushing yards per game, which ranked 185th in the nation. Overall, they gave up 37.1 points per game, putting them 94th in the country. While their pass defense was better, ranking 89th in passing yards allowed, opposing offenses found a lot of success on the ground against the Mean Green.

Away Injury Report

South Alabama Jaguars Recent Form:

Last season, South Alabama was 6-4 when favored and 1-2 as the underdog. They finished with a 7-6 overall record, including going 4-2 at home and 3-4 on the road. This season, South Alabama is ranked 84th in our pre-season power rankings, with a 66.7% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 6.5% chance of winning the Sun Belt Conference.

Currently, South Alabama has the 5th best odds out of the seven teams in the Sun Belt to win the conference. The odds are +1020, with an implied probability of 9% based on the current betting lines.

South Alabama’s offense was 25th in the country last season, averaging 33.1 points per game. The Jaguars were also efficient on third down, converting 43.1% of their chances (36th in the nation). Their passing game was a key strength, averaging 268.2 yards per game (31st), with a completion percentage of 68% (9th). In the running game, South Alabama averaged 172.7 yards per game, which was 46th in the nation.

Heading into this season, the Jaguars are looking for a new quarterback, with Jacob Jones, who transferred from Grambling, joining the team. South Alabama also added transfer Iverson Celestine to their backfield, which is led by returning running back Kentrel Bullock. The Jaguars’ top returning receiver is Jamaal Pritchett, who had 883 receiving yards and eight touchdowns last season.

South Alabama’s defense was effective last season, allowing just 21 points per game, which ranked 24th in the nation. They were particularly strong against the run, giving up only 114.7 rushing yards per game, placing them 31st in the country. In the passing game, the Jaguars allowed 199.2 yards per game, which was the 48th-best figure in college football last season.

Home Injury Report

No Injuries Reported

Betting Trends

• Across their ten previous road games, North Texas has an ATS mark of 6-4. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 3-7 while averaging 30 points per game.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, South Alabama has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 38 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the North Texas Mean Green have a straight-up record of 1-9. Their record vs the spread in these games was 5-4-1.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the South Alabama Jaguars have a straight-up record of 6-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-6.

Free Pick

For this matchup between North Texas and South Alabama, I see there being enough of a gap between the teams for South Alabama to not only win this one straight-up but cover the spread. Getting USA at -5.5 is a steal, and I’d take them all the way up to a touchdown. Go with the Jaguars at -5.5 while you can.