North Carolina at Florida St ATS Pick| CFB Week 10

North Carolina Tar Heels (4-4 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) at Florida State Seminoles (1-7, 3-5 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 10
Date/Time: Saturday, November 2, 2024 at 3:30PM EDT
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
TV: ACCN

Two of college football’s bigger disappointments this season meet when North Carolina faces off with Florida State on Saturday afternoon in Tallahassee.

The Seminoles won the ACC championship last season and were expected to make a run at a repeat this season; that did not happen.

The Tar Heels were expected to at least make a good showing in the ACC this season; that’s not happening, either.

So, how are we playing this game with our free college football betting pick?

The Line

The CFB Week 10 betting market opened North Carolina as a 2.5-point road favorite for Saturday, with an O/U of right around 50. Early betting action bumped that total to 51.

According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings (Sagarin.com), Florida State should actually be favored by -2 for this game.

North Carolina Betting Preview

The Tar Heels just snapped a four-game losing skid with a 41-14 victory over Virginia last Saturday. North Carolina spotted the Cavaliers the first three points of the game but rallied to lead 24-6 at the half. The Heels then scored the first 14 points of the second half and eased home from there.

North Carolina out-gained Virginia 428-288, and most of the yardage the Tar Heels defense allowed came in garbage time. Carolina also recorded ten sacks.

Looking back, the Heels were expected to finish somewhere in the upper division of the ACC this season – maybe not first or second, but fourth or fifth. And Carolina started 3-0. But then came that disastrous performance against James Madison, followed by a blown game against Duke. The Tar Heels then lost a tough game to Pitt, which is still undefeated, then lost a heartbreaker to Georgia Tech.

Realistically, with a few plays going the other way here and there, North Carolina could be 6-2. Instead, at 4-4, the Heels still need two wins over their last four games to become bowl-eligible. They also need to win out from here to play over their season total, which was 7.5.

Florida State Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Seminoles lug a four-game losing skid into this Saturday after falling at Miami (Fla.) last Saturday 36-14. Florida State fell down 14-0 early, trailed 17-7 at the half, then faded from there and whiffed ATS at +23.

The ‘Noles got out-gained by the Hurricanes 445-248 and gave up 230 yards on the ground.

Two weeks ago, Florida State committed four turnovers and lost to Duke 23-16. Three weeks ago, the Seminoles gave up 500 yards and lost to Clemson 29-13.

Looking back, defending ACC champion FSU was expected to again contend for the conference title this season. Instead, the program is experiencing its worst campaign in 50 years.

At 1-7 overall, the Seminoles cannot become bowl-eligible, and they will play under their season wins total, which was 9.5.

These teams last met three seasons ago, a 35-25 Florida State victory at Chapel Hill.

By the Numbers

North Carolina is averaging 442 YPG on offense this season and 191 on the ground. Defensively, the Heels are allowing 386 YPG and 141 on the ground. This while playing what Sagarin ranks as the 59th-toughest schedule in the country.

Florida State averages just 273 YPG on offense, just 80 rushing, while allowing 379 YPG, 179 rushing. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 8 schedule.

Totals Report

The Under is 5-3 in Tar Heels games this season, averaging 62 total points. But that PPG drops to 54 when that crazy game against James Madison is tossed out.

The Under is 7-1 in Seminoles games, averaging 41 points.

Free College Football Pick

North Carolina, despite its struggles, is the better team here and should win the game outright. We expect the Tar Heels to win the ground battle, and that’s usually a good start toward covering a spread. Also, Florida State is a bit of a mess at the quarterback spot. Finally, Carolina still has something to play for – bowl eligibility – while the ‘Noles are just playing out the string on a lost season. We like the Tar Heels for Saturday.

BAS Sportsbook -105 Odds!

BetAnySports is the perfect 5Dimes replacement, offering reduced juice with -105 odds on most markets. If you’re looking to get more value from your bets, this is the sportsbook for you. With the same great features you loved about 5Dimes, BetAnySports provides competitive lines, smooth navigation, and a wide range of betting options. Ready to step up your game? Join now and enjoy -105 odds… Read More