NIU vs. WMU Picks and Predictions: Loot’s Best Bets

Northern Illinois Huskies (4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) vs. Western Michigan Broncos (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 11
Date/Time: Wednesday, November 7, 2024 at 7PM EST
Where: Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, Michigan
TV: ESPN2

The Northern Illinois Huskies take on the Western Michigan Broncos in a MAC special on Wednesday night in Kalamazoo. The Broncos look to be in a good position to at least improve on their embarrassing 24-0 loss to Northern Illinois last season. They enter this game at home with a head of steam, coming off a 52-21 win over Kent State for their fourth straight win, as they are now in the driver’s seat in the MAC with a 4-0 conference mark. Northern Illinois, however, is dealing with some hard times, as their 25-23 loss to Ball State last week was their second straight loss and fourth in six games, spoiling a nice 2-0 start where they beat Notre Dame. Who should we get behind in this MAC battle on Wednesday?

Making Sense of Northern Illinois

Again, things looked to be in order early this season with head coach Thomas Haddock’s bunch. Since he came aboard, as this is his 6th season, we’ve seen the Huskies alternate from being quite good to quite bad. This season, it’s hard to determine where they fall, but recent returns aren’t good. Coming off two games where they scored a combined 23 points, NIU was favored by nearly two touchdowns over Ball State last week, losing by two on a last-second 52-yard field goal. Their offense is really spinning its wheels and it’s been quite surprising how flat they’ve fallen in conference play, losing straight-up as favorites these last two weeks.

Northern Illinois is struggling at the quarterback position, having used both Ethan Hampton and Josh Hoist the last few weeks, with neither making much of an impact. They have a pretty good receiver in Cam Thompson, but they lack the real difference-maker who can take over in spots. Aerially, it’s a pretty ho-hum equation without a cemented and trusted QB. Gavin Williams and Antario Brown are talented backs who can make plays in the passing game, as well, but still, it’s something less than impactful, and it shows in some of their desultory point-outputs this season, where since week one they’ve surpassed 23 points of scoring just once.

Western Michigan: Very Dangerous

This 4-game win streak shows the Broncos having no such issues on offense. In their last four games, they have scored 179 points. QB Hayden Wolff has proven to be a nice passer, with 15 TDs and just three picks on the season. He has nice weapons aerially—a really good tight end in Blake Bosma, along with several dangerous receivers. However, it has been the run game that has allowed this offense to take flight. Between lead back Jaden Nixon and accompanying pieces like Zahir-Abdus Salaam and Jalen Buckley, they can exact quite a toll on the ground and really control games and wear down opposing defenses.

If looking for kinks in the armor of Western Michigan, there has been a flip side to their offensive fruitfulness in recent weeks, as opposing offenses have been putting up some big numbers. Sometimes, when a team climbs off the deck and starts seeing their offense take flight, you can ignore some of the less-pleasant aspects of that equation. And in allowing 41 to Buffalo and 42 to Ball State, it’s clear their defense lags quite a distance behind their offense in terms of strength. It’s well-placed to be feeling good about WMU and where they sit right now, but that defense threatens to upend the whole operation in the event that their offense hits a snag.

Angles for NIU

Their defense is far better. That can go a long way. Last week was a bad setback, falling to a so-so Ball State team in a must-win situation. Still, the 25 points they allowed in that loss was still the most they’ve given up all season. Offenses that typically thrive tend to hit a wall against this unit. With Roy Williams and Devonte O’Malley, they can really get after the quarterback. There have been times this season where we’ve seen them fade late in games, likely a result of wilting amidst the hail of offensive lethargy taking place on the other side of the ball. Still, those going against them at the betting windows rightfully should brace themselves for the reality that offense isn’t as easy to come by against this team as it is with others. Meanwhile, the NIU offense, sometimes stuck in the mud this season, is facing one of their better spots this season against a WMU defense that sometimes even struggles against subpar offensive units. Is it possible that in light of who they’ve been playing that, the Broncos have been made to look a tad better than they are in reality?

Take the Points

This is a spot where even an enthusiastic Western Michigan backer has to sense the trap. WMU is cruising along nicely, while NIU is in some disrepair. We see NIU not able to get anything offensively going, while the Broncos are averaging 45 points a game in their last four contests. The convenience in that storyline probably fails to take some other aspects into account, namely, what is going on with the other side of the ball. And it’s not even clear that the gulf between each team’s respective offense isn’t exceeded by NIU’s advantages on defense. Still, the sheer variety of a home-Broncos offense should still get some things done, and perhaps they will be able to out-leg the Huskies in a footrace. I’ll take the Broncos in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Western Michigan Broncos plus 2 points.

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