New Mexico vs. Colorado State Week 9 Predictions: Can the Lobos Keep Rolling?

New Mexico Lobos (3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS) vs. Colorado State Rams (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 9
Date/Time: Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 5PM EDT
Where: Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, Colorado
TV: TBD

The New Mexico Lobos come into Fort Collins on Saturday for a Mountain West showdown with the Colorado State Rams. Both teams were able to come up with wins this past Saturday, and with a lot of work left to do in the Mountain West Conference, some good things could lie ahead for either team, starting with who wins this one. On Saturday, the Rams went into Air Force and got a nice 21-13 win. They return home this week to face a Lobos team that won their third game in a row on Saturday, beating Utah State, 50-45. Who should we get behind this week?

Turnaround for New Mexico?

The first four games of the season saw the Lobos getting mauled, their only semi-close game being a loss to the FCS’ Montana State, 35-31. So it has come as quite a surprise to see them peel off three straight wins, rattling off three covers in the process. While keeping in mind that these three teams they beat now sit at a combined 4-17, it’s still worth extending a little credit to the Lobos and how, after such a demoralizing start, they stayed positive and have run off 152 points of scoring in their last three games. And this past Saturday, they showed a lot of inner-resolve, overcoming a 38-23 deficit in the second half and closing it out late with a TD run from quarterback Devon Dampier.

It’s still not going to be easy for a New Mexico team that has not tasted victory against their conference foes since 2009, and there have been some pretty bad Colorado State teams in that stretch. They get this one on the road. The Rams’ offense hasn’t been a surefire unit this season, but at home and with conference play heating up, I’d imagine they are going to be on point. That could be bad news for a New Mexico team whose defense has lagged well behind their offense during this recent spurt, allowing 301 points over seven games.

What to Expect from the Rams

Last week was a positive development, if for no other reason that it broke the pattern of Colorado State alternating between wins and losses each week, with that being their second win in a row to poke their noses above .500. They are now 2-0 in the Mountain West and can start making a push to contend for this conference starting now. They haven’t had the same offensive explosions the Lobos have enjoyed in recent weeks, but in this conference especially, there’s an air of general competence about the Rams. And they have a defense that can be pretty stout on given weeks. At home this week, they should be able to provide more resistance to what has been a high-flying Lobos’ offense.

The Rams will have their hands full, however, if they can’t get their offense cooking with QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and RB Avery Morrow while also looking for new targets to replace lost top wide receiver Tory Horton. His injury does cast a shadow over this offense moving forward. While Fowler-Nicolosi has a lot of weapons in addition to those players, especially aerially, they aren’t always fast out of the gates, which could leave an in for this Lobos offense. Dampier can do a lot of damage through the air, and while receiver Luke Wysong (questionable) is definitely the lead guy, they have a lot of weapons, as well. Dampier is also the team’s leading rusher, having run for ten touchdowns already.

Advantages for Colorado State This Week

I think, in one word, it comes down to “competence.” All the explosive elements of the New Mexico offense, there’s a flip side to the coin. Dampier is certainly electric in spots but has no picks as he does touchdowns, and his three interceptions almost cost them the game in a very winnable spot against a down Utah State team last week. And whereas the Colorado State defense is a functioning unit, the New Mexico “D” can plummet to pretty low depths. Their resistance in spots is non-existent, and with a scant eight sacks and two picks on the season, it’s clear they’re not a difference-making unit, on top of being fairly-leaky.

Some of the struggling teams the Lobos have been laying it on heavy against were easy pickings, and even those were massive struggles in spots. The Rams will be looking to put a hurting on Dampier, as the entire offense runs through him, with very little on the positive side taking place outside of him. Fowler-Nicolosi has a few good backs he leans on for production. There’s not just one thing to focus on as there is for New Mexico. And not to paint Jay Norvell’s team as some conference power, but they’re likely to provide a little bit of a reality sandwich for New Mexico this week.

Lay the Points on the Home Favorite

There are worse stands to take than a team scoring 50 the last three weeks getting a touchdown in a conference game. I just sense that whereas their high-scoring ways have camouflaged their defensive inadequacies the last several weeks, they won’t be able to do that this week. I think a far-more competent Colorado State defense will be able to curb the New Mexico flow this week to some degree, with Fowler-Nicolosi and his weapons having a productive day on their way to a win and a cover at home on Saturday. I’m taking the Rams.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Colorado State Rams minus 7 points.

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