New Mexico Bowl Pick: New Mexico State vs. Fresno State – Dec 16/23

The New Mexico State Aggies take on the Fresno State Bulldogs at University Stadium on Saturday in the New Mexico Bowl. New Mexico enjoys an in-state bowl game following a 10-win season. They lost their last game on December 1, a 49-35 loss to a good Liberty team. Fresno State, meanwhile, was 8-4 playing in the Mountain West, with their last game being a 33-18 loss to San Diego State on November 25. Which team can come off the break and perform in this bowl spot in Albuquerque?

The Momentum Factor

Both teams are coming off a loss, but for New Mexico State, losing to a 13-0 Liberty team was their first loss after an 8-game winning streak, so the Aggies have really poured it on in the second half of the season, their last game notwithstanding. Along the way, there have been some big results for the Aggies, including a 31-10 win over Auburn, not to mention fine form in conference play. Conversely, the Bulldogs really labored to the finish line. At one point, it looked as if they could be the class of the conference with an 8-1 mark, with wins over conference contenders Boise and UNLV. So, seeing them careen off a cliff in the last month in taking losses to the unexceptional trio of San Jose, New Mexico, and San Diego State really forces you to look at them a different way.

What the Aggies Will Try to Do

New Mexico State has a pretty good offense, led by Conference USA player of the year QB Diego Pavia, who works with a nice cast of weapons that enable them to exact a toll on the ground or through the air. Pavia has a nice set of legs, lending a bit of a dual-threat appeal to his play. There is depth and ability at both wide receiver and running back on what is actually a pretty nice offense. We’ve seen more aerial alacrity as the season goes on, something that could be hard on a Fresno State team that, while having depth in the secondary, will be without their top corner, who entered the transfer portal.

In addition to the possible issues the Bulldogs will face on defense, they’ve seen the form of their offense play a big role in how Fresno went from a team with a big bowl game in their sights to a team hanging on for dear life by season’s end. QB Mikey Keene, pretty good earlier in the season, has hit a bit of a wall. In this last trio of games, playing against defenses that haven’t really been that great this season, we’ve seen plummeting point totals and overall production from Greene and his cast.

Fresno’s Morale

I think it’s fair to say that the Bulldogs land in this spot with a thud. A handful of weeks ago, it was almost inconceivable, considering their upcoming schedule, that the Bulldogs would end up playing a Conference USA team in a bowl game in Albuquerque. At one point, a prestigious bowl game seemed all but a certainty. Then their offense died on a vine as they soaked up three losses to teams who would have been easy pickings earlier in the season. Compare that to a New Mexico State team that is more or less OK with where they are, playing in a bowl in their own state and looking to fill University Stadium with a bunch of their supporters. Doesn’t it seem like a spot where it’s asking a lot for Fresno to hit this game shot out of cannon?

Matchup Issues with Fresno in This Game

This is a tough spot to get a struggling offense fired up again. Fresno has talent, but most of it is through their aerial corps. Not having a reliable run game to lean on renders them a bit one-dimensional for this matchup. Then we see a New Mexico State offense showing a lot of life, even when they’re coming up short, as they had a Liberty defense reeling at times in their last game. As the season comes to a close, we see an Aggies’ offense playing some of its better ball of the season. Then again, even with a Bulldogs’ offense that receded towards the end of the year, I bet they were licking their chops watching the NMSU defense flail around helplessly in that loss to Liberty.

But then again, the New Mexico State defense won’t be facing that same peaking spread offense they saw in that spot. They’ve been otherwise solid and have shut down a number of different offenses this season, with their unit littered with different players who are getting better with time. They aren’t the biggest playmaking group, especially in the back, giving a possible “in” to a Fresno pass-game that was pretty vital until their last handful of games. And Fresno’s own defense has a ball-hawk angle to it, something that could pay off if New Mexico State starts chucking it.

Lay the Points

I wouldn’t bank on a deflated and disinterested Fresno State team surfacing on Saturday. But even if Jeff Tedford lights a fire under these guys, it’s a tough ask going against an energetic and dangerous New Mexico State team that should be ready to hit the ground running on Saturday. While New Mexico State is assailable on different fronts, this is a time of the year when having a team playing well and in a good headspace counts for a lot. I’ll take the Aggies on this one.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the New Mexico State Aggies minus 3.5 points. Put ALL of your college football bowl game picks into one giant 20 point teaser and make life easier! This awesome wager can only be found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!