New Mexico vs. Auburn Week 3 Total Pick- CFB O/U System
A 61% play, on 200 Games
This week’s play:
N Mex/Aub Un 61
In last week’s article I wrote about the best handicapping method I’ve ever come up with, a way to identify games that will come in Under the total. I’ve been charting it for 4 years now and in case you missed it, here are the records:
2020: 28-4, 87%
2021: 34-21, 63%
2022: 34-32, 51%
2023: 21-17,55%
Total: 117- 74
That’s a very solid 61%.
On a data sampling of almost 200 games!
But that was then, this is now.
The only thing that matters today is – how is it going to perform this season?
Week one 2024 was a mediocre 2-2, with a pick six in the final two minutes of the Ohio State game preventing it from having a 3-1 day.
Which brought us to week two, last week. An unheard of thirteen games qualified for a system that usually kicks out seven or eight plays at most each week.
I used one of them, the one I thought was the strongest, in my homepage column, Colorado/Nebraska Un 56.
They scored 38.
I shared the other twelve games that qualified in the PredictEm forum, for record keeping/verification and in case anyone was looking for angles on any of those games (same reasons I shared that amazing 2020 season on the internet.)
How did the 13 spots do?
9-3-1, 75%.
For the season it’s 11-5, 68%.
In total, with over 200 games qualifying, the record now stands at 128-79, a remarkable 62%.
This year has started out like 2020.
Wins started piling up that year and I didn’t take advantage as much as I should have because I had no history on the play.
I have history now.
And I’m not making that mistake again.
Like last week, all plays will be shared in the PredictEm forum.
Eight games qualify this week.
That number may go up or down based on line moves between now and Saturday. And I’ll post those updates in the forum too.
The game opened at 59.5 and climbed to 61.5 by this morning (Tuesday.) The 61′ are now starting to disappear so I’m grabbing it at 61, a common number that anyone can get even if you have a limited number of books to play at.
Last week’s number on Col/Neb went from 56 to 59 and my call on waiting to buy it was not a good one as it dropped down to 56 again. Fortunately it didn’t matter in the end, but this week, this game, I’m not waiting.
Final note – of eight games that qualified, why did I choose this one for the homepage pick?
As noted at the beginning of the season, I’m handicapping three different methods for totals, as usual. One of the other methods is off to a 2-0 start on Unders. One of the two it had last week was Col/Neb, matching my homepage pick.
This week, it has two Unders and one Over.
And one of the Unders is…
N Mex/Aub.
Good luck with your play this week.
College Football
Recap: 3-0
Record: 5-0
Review: Banked three units.
Got a W with the Under 56 in Col/Neb as they combined for 38, staying under the bar by 18 points.
Got another W with one of my Wrong Favorite spots, Pittsburgh +3, as they won straight up 28-27.
And how did Chalk Boy do on his play on Miss -41′?
Here’s why I don’t mind laying major wood with Lane Kiffin as my head coach:
Leading 45-3 in the 4th quarter and he STILL had his starters in the game. And he’s still throwing passes!
Leading 52-3 with 5 minutes left he finally pulled his starters. But he’s still throwing the ball downfield!
With just 3:05 left on the clock, up 52-3, he calls for a pass to the end zone – on FOURTH DOWN!
Kiffin and the Rebs cover the 41′ by a TD to complete my sweep on the day and move me to 5-0 on the season.
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