Nevada Wolf Pack vs. USC Trojans Spread Bet

Nevada Wolf Pack (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. USC Trojans (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)

College Football Week 1

Date and Time: Saturday, September 2, 2023 at 6:30PM EDT

Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California

TV: Pac-12 Network

Point Spread: NEV +38.5/USC -38.5 (Bovada)

Over/Under Total: 66

The Nevada Wolf Pack open their season with a tough assignment in Los Angeles, taking on the ranked USC Trojans at the Coliseum. The Trojans opened up their season last Saturday with a 56-28 win over San Jose State at home. This is game one for a Wolf Pack squad that started well under first-year head coach Ken Wilson last season, winning their first two before going into the tank with ten straight losses. On the surface, this seems like a laugher with a Mountain West team on a 10-game slide coming into the cavernous Coliseum to take on a perceived national power. Let’s take a look to see if reality measures up to what sure seems like a big blowout on paper.

Silver Lining for the Wolf Pack?

It’s not going to look good when you lose ten straight, a bulk of your offensive talent departs, and you’re thrust into this road-context against a USC team that has been afforded the chance to shake off some rust with a game. The Wolf Pack lost their starting QB, number one WR, and lead back. Colorado transfer Brendon Lewis, a mobile QB, could be in line to start, but coaches are keeping it mum and their QB coach abruptly resigning late during camp perhaps doesn’t aid the clarity of the situation. While bringing in five Pac-12 transfers should give them added talent, having guys who couldn’t hack it in the Pac-12 isn’t going to scare the Trojans.

There might be some reason to suspect the Wolf Pack isn’t as bad as what last season suggests. It’s not good that they didn’t upgrade their O-line much. But they weren’t horrible for a young and inexperienced unit. There were times when this offense could be explosive, and their defense wasn’t terrible in spots. Looking at the scores of their games and just their general stats overall, you’d be surprised to find they were 2-10 with no wins since September 3. Coach Wilson is a defensive guy, and that is the strong suit of the team. That front is no joke, and even if that’s within a Mountain West context, it could be part of what keeps the Wolf Pack within this jumbo spread. They return a lot of good talent and are likely to surpass what some people expect to see.

Nevertheless, it’s not a good team. They’re probably not going to crack .500 this season, nor go to a bowl game. USC is not a team where defense is their strength. But just from a talent perspective, this is an awfully tough spot for the Wolf Pack to be working in a new-look offense. And even if you subscribe to the idea that Nevada’s defense can maybe play a role, this is also not a spot where they are built to thrive. They’re hoping they can beat Colorado State, never mind USC, on the road. It’s a team that lost a lot of pieces from last season when they were losing by 14 to teams like Incarnate Word while allowing the more dangerous offenses in their conference to put up big-point totals.

What USC’s First Game Revealed

A game one performance is perhaps expected to be taken with a grain of salt. Forming any concrete takeaways can lead you astray for a chunk of the season. Still, some things appeared to follow form from what we saw with an explosive but flawed USC team from last season. Their offense, led by Heisman winner Caleb Williams, is still the real deal. They put up 56 against San Jose State without really even seeming to try that hard. Williams had four TD throws and was pulled early with the big lead. Freshman Zachariah Branch made a splashy debut with a kickoff return for a TD and a TD reception. The kind of QB play Williams can deliver weekly, along with their multi-pronged run game, their varied and deep aerial cast, and their difference-making offensive line, makes this Southern Cal offense a unit that can bounce any team out of any stadium. And at home against the Wolf Pack might be a time we see them even kick it up another notch.

In a real-football sense, the drawbacks of the Trojans’ defense won’t surface unless they are taking on their toughest opponents, which Nevada is not. Still, it prevented them from covering the spread last week and is usually the culprit for when they don’t cover. Giving up 28 to Chevan Cordeiro and that San Jose State offense wasn’t a great look, perhaps. After a tough start to the game, the Spartans’ offense started hitting the scoreboard with some regularity, and before long, those who backed the Trojans were behind the 8-ball as far as that big spread was concerned. It’s just that you have a USC team whose offense well surpasses their defense. Add in the lack of overall urgency in taking on a pair of lower-end Mountain West teams like San Jose and Nevada to open the season, and this might not end up being the best spot to get behind the Trojans laying ridiculous amounts of points.

Take the Points

With offense getting most of the attention in this sport, USC is going to be looked at favorably in a lot of spots. Pair them with a team from an inferior conference that is nursing a ten-game losing streak; it won’t be hard to get people to back the Trojans in this one. I just think that Nevada is a little better than some people think they are. They took some losses on defense, which doesn’t bode well when taking on an offense like this one. But there is some added talent on both sides of the ball for the Wolf Pack, and I suspect they will keep this one from getting too ugly. I’ll take Nevada.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Nevada Wolf Pack plus 38.5 points. 

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