Nevada vs. Hawaii Picks and Predictions: Loot’s Week 9 NCAAF Best Bets

Nevada Wolf Pack (3-5 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-5 SU, 2-4-1 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 9
Date/Time: Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 11:59PM EDT
Where: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, Hawaii
TV: TBD

The Nevada Wolf Pack makes the trip to Honolulu on Saturday for a Mountain West Conference showdown with the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. The Wolf Pack have been alternating wins and losses the last five weeks, falling to Fresno State last Friday night, 24-21. Hawaii, meanwhile, is coming off a rough patch, losing their third straight on Saturday in an ugly 42-10 loss to Washington State. Despite both teams being off to a slow start, there is still a lot on the table, especially within conference play. Can Nevada-Reno make the long trip across the Pacific and deliver, or is this the kind of conference spot where we can see the Rainbow Warriors start to make some headway? Let’s break it down!

Making a Case for Hawaii

It’s a tough spot for a struggling Hawaii squad, but that can be said for all their road opponents, as well. At least they’re home for this one. To their credit, they’ve won four of the last five meetings against their Nevada-based opponent, including two straight. Granted, this recent stretch of games doesn’t look good, falling to San Diego State, Boise, and then Washington State in consecutive games. But maybe having an opponent more in their wheelhouse at home will result in them looking a little better than they have the last handful of weeks. With their only wins on the season coming against Delaware State and Northern Iowa of the FCS, there isn’t much to celebrate.

Even so, there was a week two field goal loss to the Bruins, in addition to them playing some tough teams where it was hard to shine. Hawaii isn’t expected to beat teams like Boise State and Washington State. So, the Rainbow Warriors not beating those teams is no major red flag. They’re facing a vulnerable Nevada team dealing with a tough road test, along with a Wolf Pack defense that has shown on occasion that they can be victimized through the air, something that is Hawaii QB Brayden Schager’s specialty. The Hawaii veteran QB has 1788 yards with 13 touchdowns, working well with receivers Pofele Ashlock (questionable) and Nick Cenacle. With seven pass-catchers in triple-digit numbers in yardage, they have a lot of aerial punch, even if they are a bit one-dimensional without much of a running game to mention. At any rate, it’s fair to say their offense is probably a little better than it’s been made to look the last few weeks. It’s also fair to say they’re struggling badly.

Potential Advantages for the Wolf Pack This Week

Considering that Hawaii has been hung out to dry by their offense in some games, we see them sometimes playing over their heads from just an overall stoutness standpoint on defense. Still, in terms of making big plays that can get some momentum for the team, that has been a problem from a Hawaii “D” that really lacks a big-play ability. It can especially be a problem against a team that can be hard to stop when they start getting on a roll. And while they only came up with 21 points last week, the Wolf Pack had averaged over 40 in their previous three games and hope to get back to that this week.

Nevada quarterback Brendon Lewis is pretty good, a capable thrower who has ten touchdowns while adding another five TDs with his legs on 551 yards rushing. He did leave the game late against Fresno State and his status isn’t cemented as of this writing. Obviously, a proactive stance on the Wolf Pack this week would require that confirmation. At any rate, between him and lead back Savion Red, along with Patrick Garwo, III., they can create a lot of production on the ground. WR Jaden Smith, whose big game last week was almost enough to get Nevada over the hump against Fresno, is also a major contributor. And whereas a strong point output has been an infrequent occurrence for the Rainbow Warriors, for the Wolf Pack, it’s more of an aberration when their offense doesn’t at least thrive to some extent. Sure, context is important when evaluating offenses, and Hawaii has been in tougher spots the last two weeks, where they’ve managed only 17 total points. But when looking at the season as a whole, Hawaii is just not putting it together on offense, and while this doesn’t look to be the toughest spot, it’s not the easiest, either.

Too Good of a Spot for Nevada?

If I were inclined to take the number on the Rainbow Warriors this week, I’d prefer to see some difficulty for Nevada in terms of conditions or something that could trip them up. Having been at home for an extended period leading to this and not being road-weary doesn’t bode well for Hawaii, nor does the idea that a Nevada run-game can quite possibly control this game in stretches, keep their defense off the field, and prevent Hawaii from getting into a flow and rhythm with their passing game. Other than Nevada not being that good, a sometimes-dormant Hawaii passing game possibly erupting this week, and the component of geography, there isn’t a ton upon which to base an optimistic view on the Rainbow Warriors this week.

Lay the Number on the Road Favorite

This isn’t the worst time to take a splash with Hawaii. In a conference sense, if not now, then when? It’s going to be slim pickings if you can’t upend bottom-half conference opposition at home. I just see Nevada able to avoid a fast start by the Rainbow Warriors at home, as they start to control the clock and eventually the game with Lewis and Red working together on the ground, of course, with word that Lewis is a clear go for this week. It’s a game where if you’re wrong, you’ll know early, so you’re not up all night with this. But I see Nevada getting it done this week with the win and cover in Hawaii.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Nevada Wolf Pack minus 2.5 points.

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