Nevada at Boise State Pick: Is This a Trap Game for the Broncos?

Nevada Wolf Pack (3-7 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) vs. Boise State Broncos (7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 11
Date/Time: Saturday, November 9, 2024 at 8PM EST
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
TV: Fox

The Nevada Wolf Pack come to Albertsons Stadium on Saturday for a Mountain West showdown with the Boise State Broncos. With Boise’s only loss of the season being a FG defeat to top-ranked Oregon, they enter this with a head of steam—six straight wins and a 56-24 win over San Diego State last Friday. Nevada has their hands full in this road-trip, coming off a 38-21 loss at home to Colorado State on Saturday to send them reeling at 3-7. Can the Wolf Pack come up with any resistance or do we have a potential Boise State bonanza on our hands?

Making a Case for Nevada

Certainly, the 24-point spread is a big part of any pro-Nevada position this week. Still, it’s not so many points that you can defer to that alone, as we need some other football-related things to make sense to prevent this from being a total annihilation. Nevada has been getting beaten up, losing by 17 to the Rams last week and by 21 to the Rainbow Warriors in their previous game before that, so it’s not outside any realm for the conference kingpins to lay a bad beating on them.

This also isn’t a very positive route to take, but you’d have to imagine the Broncos are not super-urgent about this week. We’ve seen this season already that you’re not likely to get far banking on a Boise State team being asleep at the wheel. Still, it’s a non-threatening matchup. Maybe late in the game, with the point spread still in the balance, they will stop pushing super RB Ashton Jeanty, whose workload has been immense in recent weeks. Maybe they give the starters a breather at some point. But in the Mountain West for Boise and with their upcoming schedule, it’s not like there’s anything to save up for or to see urgency wane from one week to the next. So, I’m not sure how much comfort I’d get from that as someone looking to back Nevada this week.

The Nevada offense got QB Brendon Lewis back last week, and after a really slow start, he got cooking late in a game that was already a bit out of reach. Still, with that one out of the way and there really being no pressure with this being seen as a no-win situation for the Wolf Pack, maybe Lewis can get some things cooking on offense, connect with targets like Jaden Smith, Cortez Braham, Jr., and Marcus Bellon while getting help from the backfield with Savion Red and Lewis’ own quick feet. For as good as Boise is this season, their defense isn’t really the best. They’ve been quite porous on occasion, making one think if the Wolf Pack can get clicking a little on offense, it’s going to put a lot of pressure on a Boise team that isn’t shot from a cannon this week to cover this large number.

Good Spot for Boise?

It’s nice to be home and feeling good about the way things are going, especially when countered by a team that is probably starting to feel the demoralization of a difficult patch in what has been a rough season. Sure, the Wolf Pack are used to this and have still exceeded what they’ve been able to accomplish the last few seasons, but they can’t be entering town with too much hop to their step this week, either. And Boise isn’t usually shy or reserved in these spots. One could think they want to hold Jeanty back in spots where the game is in hand, but it’s unclear what they’d even be saving him for, and maybe getting him some Heisman heat is more of a priority, as he’s in the top four of choices. And let’s face it, this is a game where he could really pad his already immense stats.

You figure if Boise has any postseason glory in their sights, they’d get a break leading up to that. Still, if the CFP is in the cards, a scenario difficult to imagine given the quality of their upcoming opponents and their current number-12 ranking in the AP poll, they could conceivably hold something back while also needing to make a point with some big lopsided wins, so maybe it’s best to forget about all that and just look at it more straight-up. And in that sense, it’s very easy to see Boise laying it on heavy and having this point spread covered with room to spare. You could easily see QB Maddux Madsen having his way aerially, as you can see Jeanty ripping off big gallops almost effortlessly in this one. It’s not difficult to envision.

While Nevada can show some sporadic zip on the offensive side of the ball, and that’s something that could impact this point spread, their defense is not a unit that’s going to produce much excitement. The fact that they haven’t even recovered a fumble this season speaks to their lack of a game-changing presence. Their pass-rush can disappear from week-to-week, with this not looking like the week it gets untracked. At some point in this game, this is a team drawback that is going to be felt, as some big plays here and there on defense are a needed part of the recipe for a 24-point dog.

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

Having gotten their butts handed to them in Honolulu a few weeks ago and now being run out to Boise, I wonder how energetic the 3-7 Wolf Pack are going to be. That offense can do damage, which is never a good thing when laying a number this big, especially with a team whose defense isn’t tip-top. The case for Nevada is far from unfathomable in what really isn’t an urgent spot for the Broncos. It’s just that the Boise offense is really clicking right now, and I don’t see that stopping this week, as the Broncos cruise to the finish line with the win and cover at home on Saturday. I’m taking Boise State.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Boise State Broncos minus 24 points.

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