Nebraska vs. USC ATS Pick: Can the Cornhuskers Cover the Spread?

Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, CA)
When: Saturday, November 16th at 4:00 PM EST
Watch: FOX
Betting Odds: USC Trojans -9.5, Over/Under 50.5

A Big 10 battle is set to take place this Saturday afternoon as the Nebraska Cornhuskers will head West to take on the USC Trojans in Los Angeles, California. This game features two teams that have had true up-and-down seasons and find themselves hovering around the .500-win percentage mark. These next few games will be very important for both sides as bowl eligibility is still in play, but it will all start with this Saturday’s contest. In a must-win conference game, I expect a highly contested affair that may be closer than most people think. These two programs have starkly contrasting playstyles, and whichever of the two can execute at a higher level and enforce their will is going to be the victor by the end of the 4th quarter. I have examined both teams and found a winning recipe for each to cover the spread. Who am I backing this weekend? Keep reading to find out.

Nebraska Cornhuskers Breakdown

The Nebraska Cornhuskers were poised to make a big splash in the Big 10 this season, but as they currently sit at 5-4 on the year, they find themselves ranked 12th in the conference. The biggest concern for the Cornhuskers has been the reliability of their offensive production. They have only averaged 23.6 points per game, and even though they have converted 3rd down opportunities at a 43.3% rate, it has not amounted to touchdowns.

Behind a young QB in Dylan Raiola, the Nebraska offense averages 229.2 passing yards per contest. Raiola has thrown for 1921 yards, but his 5:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio is concerning. Nebraska does not have one single dominant receiver, but rather they use multiple personnel packages to rotate receivers in. There are three receivers on this team with over 300 receiving yards on the year and at least 25 catches.

The running game has been exceptionally weak for the Cornhuskers, as they average only 126.1 yards per game on the ground. Despite this, they have actually scored more touchdowns via the run than the pass, but many have come in short-yardage situations. Luckily for Nebraska, they may be able to rely more on their passing game in this matchup, as USC is quite weak.

The defense for Nebraska has been their main strength all year long. The Cornhuskers rank 54th in total yardage allowed and 25th against the rush. While they are only ranked 112th against the pass, they give up just 205.6 passing yards per game and have kept opponents below an average of 20 points per game on the season.

USC Trojans Breakdown

The USC Trojans find themselves with a 4-5 record on the year and enter this matchup after losing their last game to Washington on the road. They have been much better at home, and in fact, they are currently winless in road games this year. USC has a potent offense behind quarterback Miller Moss, who has completed 64.4% of his passes for 2555 yards and 18 touchdowns.

As a group, the Trojans are 19th nationally in passing offense and average just a hair under 300 yards per game with 291.2. They are scoring points at a high clip and average 30.6 points per game. Moss has been able to spread the ball around extremely effectively, which has led to 4 Trojans surpassing 30 receptions on the season. The Trojans can also hit the deep ball at a high rate and feature six different pass-catchers who average more than 10 yards per reception.

The run game has been serviceable and is adding nearly 150 yards of offense per game, allowing USC to average 444.3 yards of total offense each week. They are one of the best 3rd down offenses in the country and convert at a 46.9% rate.

Unlike Nebraska, the defense has not been a contributing factor to the limited success of USC in 2024. They allow opponents to pass at will and chew up almost 380 yards of total offense on average. If there is one bright spot, it is that they have found an ability to stop opponents from converting on 3rd down. The Trojans limit opponents to just a 31.9% conversion rate, which is good for 69th in all of college football.

My Pick: Nebraska +9.5 (-110)

Neither of these teams has all that much to play for in this matchup, even though they are on the cusp of bowl eligibility. They have not lived up to the expectations of 2024 and look ready to regroup and come back for another try at the playoff next year. While USC has the better offense and gets a big home-field advantage, I don’t trust their defense to help them cover a spread this large. Nebraska’s stout run defense will force the Trojans to become one-dimensional and will keep them in the game. I am not sure if Nebraska can win this one outright, but they will definitely cover.