Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Lines, Analysis, Free Pick

Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 12, 3:30 p.m.

Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich.

TV: ABC

Point Spread: NEB +30.5/MICH -30.5 (Wagerweb – Make the Huskers +50.5 or Big Blue -10.5 by inserting either into a massive 20 point college football teaser found here!)

Total: O/U 48.5

Outlook

Nebraska joined the Big Ten to play this kind of game, but the Cornhuskers haven’t looked anywhere near ready to play in this kind of game for quite a while. Nebraska has to run the table if it wants to make a bowl game, and the Huskers instead enter this game on a three-game losing streak. With time running out to save interim coach Mickey Joseph’s job, it appears this will not end well for Nebraska.

To make matters worse, Michigan seems to be past its lull at midseason and is now hitting on all cylinders. The Wolverines have looked very good in three consecutive games, and their ground game looks like it can destroy any defense in the Big Ten. But Nebraska has played much better over the past month, and Michigan doesn’t really need to destroy anyone at this point. With no losses on the ledger, all the Wolverines have to do is win out, and they’ll avoid seeing the SEC champion until the national title game. And with Illinois and Ohio State still to come, this might be a look-ahead spot for the Wolverines, as they might not be all that focused on a desperate Huskers team that’s got everything to play for here.

How the Public is Betting the Nebraska/Michigan Game

The public thinks this is too many points to give, as 57% is backing the Huskers here. The sharps, on the other hand, think this line is too low. The spread has jumped from -29 to -30.5, with the total falling from 52 to 48.5.

Injury Concerns

Nebraska:
Quarterback Casey Thompson (elbow) is questionable. Wide receiver Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda (undisclosed), tight end Thomas Fidone (knee), wide receiver DeColdest Crawford (knee), running back Ajay Allen (undisclosed), and offensive lineman Nouredin Nouili (suspended) are out.

Michigan:
Linebacker Kalel Mullings (undisclosed) and wide receiver Roman Wilson (undisclosed) are questionable. Tight end Erick All (undisclosed), long snapper William Wagner (undisclosed), defensive back Caden Kolesar (knee), linebacker Nikhai Hill-Green (lower body), and quarterback Cade McNamara (leg) are out.

When Nebraska Has the Ball

If Casey Thompson is under center, the Huskers have a much better chance to keep this game close. If he’s not there, Nebraska’s offense is going to be in real trouble. The Huskers couldn’t pass much of anything against Minnesota, yet the defense and the ground game helped to keep the Golden Gophers within shouting distance until the end. Logan Smothers and Chubba Purdy are nowhere near good enough to move the ball against the Wolverines’ defense, which means that Anthony Grant is going to need to carry the ball early and often.

The problem is that Michigan boasts the No. 1 run defense in the nation, and with snow in the forecast, Nebraska really won’t be able to throw the football at all. It’s hard to see the Huskers putting up many points against the Michigan defense in good weather and completely healthy; if they’re banged up, they’ll be lucky to score more than 10 points.

When Michigan Has the Ball

This looks like Blake Corum’s game. Nebraska’s defense has played better since Scott Frost was fired, but the defense also hasn’t seen anyone as strong as Michigan’s powerful ground game. The Wolverines have not thrown the ball all that well anyway this season, so they’re probably better off going with a run-heavy attack in this game.

JJ McCarthy was hyped as the quarterback for this season, but he hasn’t really done all that much to try to win games this season. Instead, Michigan keeps trying to let him do just enough to lift the offense while having the ground game do most of the work. Against Nebraska, the run game is likely to get the job done based on the early part of the schedule, as the Huskers didn’t exactly stop the ground game against Georgia Southern or Oklahoma. They have improved, but Michigan will commit to the run from start to finish here.

Betting Trends

When Nebraska starts the season, it usually gets a lot of hype at the start of the year, and then the Huskers fade, and the public loses interest in a hurry. And that is the time to bet on the Huskers, because Nebraska then gets too many points and ends up covering for the books while the Huskers get the loss on the field. Nebraska has covered five straight games in November, as the early hype has been used against bettors very well.

Michigan, however, also steps up its game in November under Jim Harbaugh. The Wolverines have covered five straight games in November, and they’ve done it with defense. The under has cashed in 11 of 15 at the Big House, and the under is 5-1 in the Huskers’ past six games overall.

Weather Report

The storm affecting Ohio on Friday will roll into Michigan on Saturday, bringing snow to Ann Arbor. Temperatures will start around 42 degrees and fall below freezing over time.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

In bad weather, I expect Michigan to just try to get in and out as quickly as possible without worrying about putting up a big number. The Wolverines have the talent to come up with a big victory, but in these conditions, I look for a low-scoring contest between the teams.

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